Professional Poker Revenue

Judging by the recent e-mails that I've received, many people are thinking about playing poker professionally. Unfortunately, many of them misunderstand some aspects of what it takes to make a living from poker. This column will address some of their misconceptions about cash-game professionals by discussing the following:

• What the revenue stream looks like
• How much you can actually make
• How to know when you are ready

What the revenue stream looks like: Most people holding jobs with paychecks make a fairly steady income, and even most people working on commission make a minimum draw against eventual results.

That's not so with poker. I, for example, have never had a year without a losing month. No matter how well you play or how many hours you play, you should expect that one or two months a year, you not only will fail to make your required minimum, but may be in the hole for many big bets.

Of course, some months will be well above average. Our game has a huge random component, and while luck eventually averages out, your profits don't come in nice, even dollops. Here, for example, might be monthly results for a $15-$30 limit pro for one year:

$3,815
$4,311
$1,798
$2,025
$972
$5,060
$16,473
$2,893
$9,327
-$2,860
-$812
$5,234

This adds up to $48,236, an average of about $4,000 per month. It's a good overall result, but not exactly smooth.

A second consideration is how to play to achieve these results. Several correspondents planned to play each day until they made the amount they needed to make per day. For example, if they wanted to make $100,000 per year and planned to play 250 days per year, they quit each day when they made $400.

Most days, they were successful and went home. Unfortunately, on losing days, they played long hours, losing back considerable sums.

Their method is easily the worst way to play. When they were running well, had evidence that the game was going well, and possibly had good control over their table, they went home. When they were running poorly, possibly were not playing as well, perhaps were in a tougher game, and had a poor image, they put in lots of hours.

While they would have been better off staying when ahead and leaving when behind, the right way is simply to ignore short-term results. Going home because you made a flush and won a big pot, or staying because you missed or your opponent drew out, has nothing to do with long-range poker success. Professionals simply play when they are playing well and the game is good, and leave when one of those criteria is missing.

In the long run, the hours you put in at the table in favorable situations will make you money, no matter what size your stack is during the session, or whether people have been drawing out on you. Of course, you need to maintain your composure while bad things are happening around you, but that is the essence of being a long-term professional player.

How much you can actually make: Just as hours and months are not predictable, neither are years. When I played $20-$40, I averaged $55 per hour over several years. But, I still had a low year of $38 per hour and a high year of $75.

How much you can make does not depend on how much you want to make, either. Just because you need $100,000 to live comfortably does not mean you can earn that at the table, even if you are actually making the appropriate hourly rate while playing part time. As the hours mount up, some leveling effect may occur, meaning that your win rate may decline substantially. Just because you can win $50 per hour when playing 10 hours per week does not mean you can earn $50 per hour when playing 40 hours per week. There are two primary reasons for this:

1. You may not play as well if you play so many hours.

2. You may not select games as well. In fact, it may be impossible to find games that are as good when you are playing four times as many hours.

Additionally, it is tougher to grind it out hour after hour for 2,000 or more hours per year than it is to play a few hours each weekend. And remember this: You must play almost all of those hours at peak efficiency. So, if you suddenly decide to go from playing four hours a day to 10 hours a day because your earnings are lagging, you need to be just as good during the last six hours as you were during the first four.

When you play for a living, you inevitably will encounter losing streaks. They can become a problem if you cannot respond properly. It takes an unusually tough player to lose several days in a row, show up for work the next day, have his pocket kings rivered in the first hour, and still be able to play his best game. If you cannot do this, your hourly rate will be devastated several times per year.

How to know when you are ready: I suggest working both forward and backward to determine your income. First, use your excellent records (don't even consider turning pro without records to prove your exact results) to figure out how much you can make. Then, separately, figure out how much you need to live. Remember to allow for major fluctuations in the first number while still attaining the second. This combination will tell you how many hours you need to play per year, and whether it is feasible to do so. Then, recognize that -- because of the factors mentioned earlier - your current hourly rate probably will decrease.

Take some time to play the game and number of hours that you have determined will be your primary income source. If needed, take a leave of absence from work. It helps to play every day (or whatever schedule you expect to work as a professional). If you decide to move to Las Vegas or California, go there for a few months to try it out.

Here is an interesting note: People moving to a new place and playing with existing professionals often experience greater success in the first few months than they do in the long term. The local pros, when they realize that you are a regular, may invest some extra money in calling to see your hands and determine how you play. Once they understand your game, they will adapt to it, and you will stop benefiting from those calls. The pros and other tough players will also make other adjustments. Make allowances for this if you are moving to a game or limit where several professionals are already playing.

Conclusion: Most professionals try to discourage others from turning pro. They do it not because they wish to prevent competition, but because they know how difficult it is to make a meaningful living.

On the other hand, many have succeeded - and you may well be one who does. Understanding what to expect from the work and how variable the income is may help you to make a better decision.

Barry Tanenbaum is the author of Advanced Limit Hold'em Strategy and a collaborator on Limit Hold'em: Winning Short-Handed Strategies, both available at www.CardPlayer.com. Barry offers private lessons tailored to the individual student. Please see his website, www.barrytanenbaum.com, or write to him at [email protected].