A No-Limit No-Brainer? Not So Fast!

No-limit hold'em is complicated in different ways than limit hold'em, particularly with deep stacks. The nature of the game makes swings bigger; mistakes generally cost you more, while good plays make you more or in some cases save you more! The great power of winning no-limit hold'em players in live games (multitable Internet play is another discussion altogether) comes from making good reads. Once you have learned the fundamentals of poker and can actualize them and play at the level of most of your opponents, most of the significant difference in ability between you and your opponents is going to be how accurately you read hands and how well you implement the correct counterplay based on your read of your opponents' range of hands.

An outstanding no-limit player who regularly plays high-stakes games online and beats them to death recently sat down in a $5-$10 no-limit live game to kill time. He was friendly with one of the players in the game whom he knew fairly well -- a professional player of good skill, but nowhere near Mr. Outstanding's level. The two of them got involved in a hand, which I thought played unusually.

Mr. Outstanding opened the pot for $40 from under the gun and was called by Mr. Good, who held Q-Q in third position. Each had stacks of more than $2,500, which was deep for a $5-$10 game. They took the flop off heads up, and it came down J-3-3 rainbow. Mr. Outstanding checked and Mr. Good bet $60 into a $95 pot. Mr. Outstanding flat-called. The turn was a queen, giving Mr. Good a full house. Mr. Outstanding checked again. Mr. Good bet $200 into a $215 pot and, again, Mr. Outstanding called.

The river was a 10 and Mr. Outstanding checked once more. Mr. Good bet $350, a smallish bet into a $615 pot, and one that appeared to be begging for a call. Again, Mr. Outstanding called. The turn and river play is what is most interesting about the hand.

Mr. Good showed his queens full. Mr. Outstanding stated, "I knew you didn't have A-K or tens." He flashed J-J, having flopped jacks full, and he never put in a bet or a raise! And he finished the hand with chips still in his stack.

Wow, how did that hand play that way? What thoughts did Mr. Outstanding have in order to play his hand in that manner. Most players, even good ones, would get stacked in that scenario.

The key to understanding Mr. Outstanding's thinking in reading the hand so effectively is in the statement he made. Like most winning players in no-limit hold'em, Mr. Outstanding plays very tight up front, and raises tighter yet. Like all great players, while he makes situational deception plays from early position, against observant fields he's not interested in taking the worst hand from the worst position often. Furthermore, except for Mr. Good, the players at the table weren't particularly observant -- and Mr. Good knew that Mr. Outstanding knew this!

Preflop, Mr. Outstanding knew that Mr. Good knew him and respected his play, and would call an early-position raise from him only with a very powerful hand, limiting Mr. Good's hand range significantly, probably to A-A, K-K, A-K, Q-Q, J-J, or 10-10. Yes, there was some chance for Mr. Good to be floating with a "deception play," but would he do that against a great player he knew to be extremely tight who was opening with an under-the-gun raise?

When the flop came down, Mr. Outstanding was slow-playing his full house, not wanting to give away any information regarding the strength of his hand, so that he could trap Mr. Good, explaining easily enough his check-call on the flop.

On the turn, after the queen came, what could Mr. Good have? If he would reraise preflop with K-K or A-A, he couldn't hold either of those hands. And would Mr. Good bet 10-10 or A-K on the turn after getting called on the flop?

Referencing his statement and knowing that Mr. Outstanding knew Mr. Good's play very well, I don't think Mr. Outstanding thought Mr. Good had any of those hands. If those thoughts were correct, Mr. Good would have to have Q-Q or be making a play on the pot with air. And if Mr. Good was making a play on the pot, there was no point in Mr. Outstanding making a counterplay. Such a move would just reopen the betting again. If Mr. Outstanding moved on the turn, he would get no value if Mr. Good could not call a raise, and would face a difficult decision with his big hand if played back at by Mr. Good.

It could be said by some that, making this read, Mr. Outstanding perhaps could have saved $550 by laying his hand down on the turn. To make that laydown, he would have to believe the price the pot was laying was not commensurate with the chance of Mr. Good bluffing or slow-playing A-A or K-K.

This hand speaks to knowing your opponent, reading his hand, and making an appropriate play based on that read. Knowing what you need to do and doing it are two different things. It takes concentrating on your opponents, recalling their tendencies, knowing the appropriate responsive play, and having the heart and courage to pull the trigger on the correct play. The level of skill required to make the decisions that Mr. Outstanding made in this hand comes only with time and experience. In just this particular situation, reading the hand in an expert fashion saved him from putting in more than $2,000 while drawing virtually dead -- $2,000 that you and I very likely would have lost.

Roy Cooke has played more than 60,000 hours of pro poker since 1972, and is also a licensed real estate broker/salesman in Nevada. His longtime collaborator John Bond is a freelance writer in South Florida. They have written six poker books, including 2007's Home Poker Handbook and 2008's How to Think Like a Poker Pro. Please see Roy's real estate ad on this page.