Football Frenzy - '08-'09 Season's Greetings

Head down. Shoulders slumped. As the noise and dull vibrations of the demanding crowd's elongated groan register in his senses, he sighs deeply and allows himself to consider the option that this is not for him. Years of adoration from those who witness his talents are a worthless currency in a moment when results are required immediately. A look of childlike worry exposes the fact that this is the face of a boy fending off the piteous prospect of failure in front of an audience of millions. Was this all a mistake? Both player and manager court the possibility.

He may have the world at his feet in 2008, but early on in his Old Trafford career, Cristiano Ronaldo looked light years away from a player who would be almost universally regarded as the best on the planet. Although immediately eye-catching, debate surrounding his profligate use of possession has only abated in the last couple of seasons. Having been snapped up for a sizeable fee by Sir Alex Ferguson, any suggestion that he would scale the heights simply could not be sanctioned.
The immediacy of modern media means that passing judgement on almost any aspect of life is instant. Verdicts of success and failure are too often dispensed after hopelessly short amounts of time.

As dramatised as the opening description of the younger Ronaldo may seem, it was a regular occurrence as a boy tried to fill the boots of the Old Trafford icon that was David Beckham. Equally, the description could apply to Emmanuel Adebayor, Carlos Tevez, and Michael Ballack as they struggled to make an impact in the English game, despite good reputations. All, to varying degrees, have ultimately proved themselves worthy of the praise and expectation that came with their high-profile transfers.

The message is to avoid knee-jerk reactions. Every summer, football's "phoney war" begins in earnest. In the absence of conflict, conjecture takes centre stage. Unfounded rumours flourish and speculation supplants rationality. In these times, the sensible punter needs to see through the hype and make logical judgements. It's all well and good getting swept away on a wave of optimism, but letting your heart dictate where your money goes will only augment partisan disappointment. To paraphrase the economic mantra, "Past performances are the most reliable indicator of future behaviour."

In football terms, you have to use your judgement to factor in the possible impact of transfers, but aside from Roman Abramovich's spree when he bought Chelsea, sudden and dramatic improvement is rare, and the problems that persist in one season seldom vanish over the summer months.

Spured to Victory?

Tottenham are the case in point this season. As good as the capture of Luka Modric and Giovanni Dos Santos is, Spurs' fans would need to be wary of expecting impressive improvement in a short space of time. Without doubt, Juande Ramos has captured two of the hottest young talents in European football, but despite Modric's impressive displays at Euro 2008, it will take time to settle into the various idiosyncrasies of the English game. Tempo and physicality are often cited as the main differences, but on the most practical level, Modric the young man needs to adjust to life in a very different culture.

To this end, consider the following: In his first three seasons at Man Utd, Ronaldo averaged just one goal every five games. Over the course of the last two seasons, that has jumped to one goal every 1.6 games. Although these bare stats ignore assists, it's safe to assume that it has taken a while for Ronaldo to truly settle in to the Premier League. Likewise, Emmanuel Adebayor last season bagged 30 goals in all competitions, almost doubling the combined total of his previous season, and half were in the Premier League. Thierry Henry's early days at Highbury would have followed a similar trend. From inauspicious starts, these players have gone on to become stars. It's something to bear in mind when perusing the betting for the upcoming season.

Likewise, Giovani Dos Santos has been touted as a star for a number of years and gained vital La Liga and Champions League experience during his time at the Camp Nou, but it will take time to find his feet in London. The talents of Dos Santos and Modric are beyond question, but much patience is required before we see either player fire Tottenham into the coveted Champions League places. The acquisition of Brazilian goalkeeper Gomes from PSV Eindhoven should be an improvement on Robinson and Cerny, but again, it's unfair to expect an impenetrable barrier from the off.

The collection of new signings will strengthen the Spurs, but it's highly unlikely that there'll be enough development to land a Champions League spot. The squad still lacks the depth of any of the top four sides, particularly defensively, and optimistic attitude aside, backing them without the "Big Four" at around 2-1 looks more sensible than betting on them to dislodge either Arsenal or Liverpool.

The example of Tottenham should serve as a cautionary tale for all those fans allowing themselves to dream that the impossible is about to become possible with some shrewd moves in the transfer market.

'Pooled Resources

Flying in the face of the "taking time to settle" argument put forward was Fernando Torres' record-breaking debut Premier League season, but this was very much the exception to the rule. Despite the Spaniard's brilliant contribution, Liverpool actually finished fourth, one place below the position they attained without his services in the year prior. The loss of Agger for much of last season was a massive blow to the Reds, but if there is a silver lining, it's that it forced Rafa Benitez to bring in quality cover in the form of Martin Skrtel. Liverpool's problem in mounting a title challenge has been evident for a couple of seasons now, and in this regard it should be easily addressed.

Year-on-year, Liverpool improved their points haul against clubs outside the top four, but their main failing is taking points off the other members of this elite club. Since taking the Anfield hot seat, Rafa Benitez has collected just 16 points from a possible 72 against his main title rivals. Although winning games against Manchester United and Chelsea would be nice, it's vital that they don't lose to the teams also going for the title. The two losses to United highlighted two important traits that Liverpool needs to acquire: Champions win when they don't necessarily deserve to (as the Reds Devils did at Anfield), and you can't give your main rivals too much respect (which United adhered to at Old Trafford).

Battle of the Big Two

That leaves us with Manchester United and Chelsea yet again fighting it out for the title. They both have the biggest and most talented squads, and taking into account potential arrivals and exits, it looks highly unlikely that Arsenal will bridge the gap. One thing that may tip the balance in the favour of the Blues is Michael Essien.

His versatility has been a curse to date at Chelsea. Essien has done well at right back and centre back when the team needed it, but in reality, the Ghanian's dynamism is required in central midfield. Phil Scolari arrives at the Bridge with little in the way of favourites, and although asking Lampard to make way in the past was unthinkable, Scolari could make the unpopular calls if he deems it necessary for the improvement of the team. It's difficult to gauge the impact of Deco and Bosingwa, but Essien has adapted well to English football, and the time has come to give him a more prominent role.

Bottom Feeders

Based on the recent evidence, Hull have to be backed to be relegated at a price of around 1/3. Obviously, those skinny odds won't suit most punters' pockets, but it's essentially guaranteed. If you want to bump up the odds, you can take them at 7/5 to finish rock bottom, a fate that has befallen the last two teams to win promotion via the playoffs. There has been a genuine lack of quality about the teams coming up through the lottery of the playoffs, and although Watford and Derby had reason for faint optimism by virtue of the fact they had some highly rated young talent within their ranks, the nucleus of Hull's squad is made up of journeymen players approaching the end of their careers, such as Dean Windass and Nick Barmby.

Stoke may be tougher nuts to crack, but seeing as the majority of the squad already have tasted top-flight football and not prospered, there is little cause for optimism. The same accusation could be levelled at West Brom, but Tony Mowbray is one of the emerging talents in the management ranks, and he has the ability to guide the Baggies to safety.

Outside of the newly promoted teams, Fulham are considered most likely to go down. Their escape act toward the end of last season can be viewed as a fortunate run by a bad team or the minor miracle brought about by the experience of Roy Hodgson, but it's no coincidence that it corresponded with the return to full fitness of Jimmy Bullard. His improbably blonde mane and cheeky demeanour make it easy for him to be dismissed as not a serious player, but make no mistake, he is a workhorse with talent to burn.

A late bloomer in his career, he has caught the eye of Fabio Capello, and an international call-up may not be far away. His busy style looks to be the antithesis of the languid displays turned in by much of England's midfield in recent times. If Bullard stays fit, he can be the catalyst to lifting the Cottagers away from the relegation zone. Turning this into profit is another matter, with getting involved at 3/10 for Fulham to avoid relegation looking like a big risk for little reward. Overall, it could be worth laying the big teams when they make the trip to Craven Cottage. Each member of the big four will be long odds on to win, but a Bullard-inspired team will make it extremely difficult for all visitors.

All Eyes on Europe

Every era must come to an end, and the mixed signals emanating from Lyon suggest that time could be now. Despite landing seven Championnat titles in succession, managers have been reluctant to hang around for too long. Last season, Alain Perrin left France's perennial champions after winning the title, and although Claude Puel is a quality manager to replace him, the door could be open for the rivals. Benzema could be on his way to one of Europe's major clubs, and after an encouraging debut season, Laurent Blanc could signal his managerial prowess by guiding his stylish Bordeaux team to the title. Likewise, Marseille's improved recent form could make them a factor. Lay Lyon to win Ligue 1.

On the theme of new eras, Pep Guardiola takes the helm at Barcelona. An intelligent and popular former player for Los Cules, he will set out the sizeable task of rebuilding the team following a disastrous end to Frank Rijkaard's time at the club. Out go the stalwarts of recent seasons, and in come some exciting players who will take time to settle in Spain. For once, Real Madrid looks the model of continuity, and it would take something nigh on miraculous for Guardiola to usurp Schuster's Madrid. Back Real Madrid for La Liga.

Jose Mourinho takes the helm at Inter Milan. His style should fit in perfectly with the expectations of Italian fans, and with AC Milan in transition, Juventus still rebuilding, and Roma lacking quality in depth, he could land the Scudetto in his first attempt. Back Inter Milan to win Serie A.