Antepost

Looking for a Parimutuel Edge

The best racehorse in the world, the best we have seen for many a year, Curlin, could finish only second in the Man o' War Stakes at Belmont, meaning the great horse will surely not be making the trip over to Paris for the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe.
The Man o' War was Curlin's first foray on a grass surface, and in getting beat by two lengths by Red Rocks, he ran at least 10 lengths below his best [dirt] form.

It's a terrible shame he clearly does not act on turf, as he would have had a chance to etch his name alongside some of the all-time greats, such as Pharlap, Seattle Slew, Dancing Brave, and Vintage Crop, by winning the Arc in addition to his Breeders Cup Classic, Preakness, and Dubai World Cup titles.

There was potential for a rare old touch in the Arc had Curlin made the lineup, as it had been mooted that American wagers would be fed directly into the parimutuel or the tote pool. Doubtlessly, the weight of money would make the wonder horse a massive favourite and, resultingly, distort the fixed odds offered by British bookmakers.

This is what happened in the 2006 rendition of the Arc, a day described as the "craziest betting day ever," when supporters of the Japanese-trained Deep Impact brought enough yen into Paris to affect France's balance of payments; €1.6 million was gambled on the star racer at the track's tote windows by an estimated 5,000 Japanese race fans who queued 50 deep from the moment the parimutuel was turned on. As a consequence, the horse, who was a 3-1 shot with British bookmakers, was trading around the 1-10 mark pre-race on the tote. Suddenly, the betting world went mad as clued-up punters realised they could back their fancies at the French tote return, and if that fancy was not Deep Impact, they would receive a price that far outweighed probability.

For example, Hurricane Run was generally quoted at 2-1 in the days leading up to the race, but would have paid treble figures if he had won. Eventual winner Rail Link paid 24-1 on the tote, yet was quoted at a quarter of those odds in the fixed-odds markets.

It soon became abundantly clear that this was the biggest betting opportunity of all time. Use your head, stake correctly, and you could not lose. The policy was simple, back every horse in the race - with the exception of Deep Impact - with bookmakers asking for the odds ultimately returned by the parimutuel. Then back Deep Impact at the fixed odds of 5-2 offered by the very same betting firms. Therein, whoever crossed the line in front, the result would be the same … a clear profit.

Personality Touch

The Sports Personality of the Year Awards has been very kind to me down the years - the years I can get a bet on, that is! Laying an odds-on Lewis Hamilton last year was one of the highlights.

As autumn approaches, this market usually features an odds-on shot that, I would imagine, will be our most successful Olympic athlete. However, medals and titles are soon forgotten, and things can change quickly. Lewis Hamilton is in danger of landing his first Formula 1 title, and Europe could claim another Ryder Cup, for example. Because of this, I'd stay well clear of a long-range short one here.

Incidentally, the even money available about the Europeans landing the sixth Ryder Cup from the last seven renditions surely looks generous. Since the event became Europe vs. the USA - it was formerly the USA vs. Great Britain - the score is 7-6 in Europe's favour with a tie in 1989, leading to the home side (Europe) retaining the title. ♠