The Oracle's Corner

This hand comes from Commerce Casino in Los Angeles. The game is no-limit hold'em with $50-$100 blinds. The minimum buy-in for the game is $5,000, but most players have at least $20,000 in front of them, and sometimes much more. On occasion, when Kenny Tran is hosting his regulars, it is not uncommon to find stacks of $100,000 to $500,000 in front of some of the players.



Facts of the Hand

Game: No-limit hold'em cash game

Number: of Players 9

Blinds and Ante: $50-$100, often with a $200 straddle

Kevin Zhu's Stack Size: $20,000

Internet Kid's Stack Size: $25,000

Players' Images: Kevin Zhu has been a regular at Commerce Casino for the past 18 months, and is a winning player who is respected by the regulars. He is quiet and unassuming, plays a tight-aggressive style, and is capable of making a good move. Internet Kid is new to Commerce Casino and not well-known. He has been playing more than a few pots and has been three-betting preflop more than average.

Michael Binger's Analysis

Kevin, being a solid winning player, is usually three-betting preflop from the button only with a very strong hand, probably J-J, Q-Q, K-K, A-A, and A-K. However, since it was the aggressive Internet Kid who raised two limpers, Kevin might be reraising a little bit light here; maybe 10-10 and A-Q suited could be in his range, but probably not. It is also possible that Kevin is making a move with pure garbage, although this seems unlikely, since I think he would have reraised more, perhaps to $1,400 or $1,500.

I would guess that Internet Kid had a pocket pair between 5-5 and 10-10, maybe. Seeing a flop of K-4-3 rainbow, he decided to take a stab and see where he was in the hand. This is not my favorite course of action, but it's not too out of line. I usually would just give up on the flop if I missed my set after a solid player three-bet me, unless of course I thought he was making a move. Anyway, when Kevin just called, perhaps Internet Kid decided that he had J-J or Q-Q and could move him off the hand. Kevin is quite likely to smooth-call the flop with any of these hands: J-J through A-A, and A-K. The hands that he might fold to a large bet on the turn, J-J and Q-Q, represent only 12 ÷ 33 = 36 percent of these hands. Therefore, assuming that Kevin folds J-J and Q-Q on the turn and calls or raises with K-K, A-A, and A-K, the EV of Internet Kid's $4,500 bluff-bet is negative: EV = [0.36 x ( + $5,150)] + [0.64 x (-$4,500)] = -$1,026.

After Kevin calls the turn bet, his range becomes much more biased toward the stronger end - namely, K-K, A-A, and A-K. Assuming that Kevin will fold A-A and call all in on the river with K-K and A-K, the EV of Internet Kid's river bluff-bet is even more negative: EV = [0.4 x ($14,150)] + [0.6 x (-$13,000)] = - $2,140. Here, 0.4 = 6 ÷ (1+8+6) are the odds that Kevin will fold, and 0.6 = (1+8) ÷ (1+8+6) are the odds that he will call. Note that with a board of K-4-3-3-K on the river, there are one, eight, and six possible K-K's, A-K's, and A-A's, respectively.

Risking $4,500 on the turn and most of your stack on the river in the ever-narrowing hope that Kevin will fold seems foolish to me, and as we see, the math bears this out. The board is simply not a good one to bluff at, and your opponent likely has a strong hand. This seems to be a rash and inexperienced play on the part of Internet Kid.

From Kevin's point of view, I assume his decisions were all about whether to raise or just call. On the flop, calling is straightforward, since you don't want to get your opponent to fold if he is making a move, there are not really any draws to be afraid of, and you usually don't want to build big pots on the flop with one pair. On the turn, the 3 is pretty harmless, and Internet Kid's bet is a strong one, representing either a bluff or a strong hand, A-K or better. Given the aggressiveness of his opponent, Kevin cannot fold the turn. Now, Kevin could raise all in, since that would be a little less than a pot-sized bet after calling the $4,500. However, again, I think it is right to just call here, for similar reasons as on the flop. On the river, Kevin has the third nuts, and this seems like an instant call to me, unless you are up against a complete rock who might have only quads (as K-4 seems like a very unlikely holding). Although it doesn't hurt to take a few moments to make sure that you are not missing anything, I am surprised that Kevin took several minutes.

All in all, this is a classic case of playing solid, patient poker and waiting to snare the "creative" player who decides to bluff off his stack.

Roy Winston's Analysis

This to me was a very interesting hand. Having participated in it with 7-6 suited, I was able to see, feel, and touch the action, which always helps in understanding the situation. Several factors were at work here; first and foremost, Internet Kid was in over his head from the beginning. He was playing an experienced, tough live-action player, which put him at a disadvantage. It seems on a regular basis that new players show up to try to outplay the regulars. The new players in the game often overlook the fact that the regulars are battle-hardened, and while they may splash around a few chips early in a pot in a marginal situation, for the most part, when they are committing the bulk of their stack in a hand, they are ahead or have a monster draw. One of the cornerstones of high-stakes cash games is flopping big (straights, flushes, and sets), and getting someone to overcommit with a big pair, or in this case, even better, bluff into you. It reminds me of when Miami Tony bluffed off about $300,000 on High Stakes Poker into quads, or when Brad Booth bluffed Phil Ivey off pocket kings with a monster preflop reraise. There is little else in poker as satisfying as taking down a good-size pot with a bluff. I have fired my share of three-shell bluffs, but with a double-paired board against a solid opponent like Kevin, the third shell was unnecessary. The key ingredient in any bluff is being able to put your opponent on a range of hands that he could fold. Being a tight-aggressive player and reraising preflop would put Kevin on a relatively narrow range of hands, which would include any pair and A-K. When he calls the flop bet, he now can have only A-A, K-K, A-K, 3-3, or 4-4, unless he senses a move on the kid's part. When Kevin calls the turn bet, he definitely has one of the above hands, and I would take my medicine. When the king fell on the river, a glimmer of hope came, and he thought that now he could represent the king and perhaps move him off any of the non-king hands, except of course pocket threes. I give him credit for having a lot of heart, which in this case didn't work out too well. It is funny how what I call a trap card falls on the turn or river and gives you some hope when you are otherwise done with a hand, and there you go putting more chips in the pot. And it seems that those situations usually don't end well.

Kevin Zhu's Rebuttal

He explained that his delay in calling on the river was because he wanted to make sure that he wasn't missing anything, and he wanted to rule out pocket threes or K-4 by carefully replaying the hand in his head. Players who don't regularly play deep-stack cash poker may not realize that a winning player does not like to commit his whole stack without the nuts, or at least close to it.

Pro Conclusions

Avoid big bluffs, unless you are convinced they will work. I ask myself every time I am about to commit a large amount of chips to a pot, "Is this the best place to get my money in, or is there a better spot on down the road?"