Insanity Prevails … or Not!

Some people go to Barbados and some to Fiji, while others just go to their hometown of Copenhagen to hang out with family and old friends.

I still have some time for Internet poker, though - a lot of time!

I surely have been one of the most active players on Full Tilt, playing pot-limit Omaha, H.O.R.S.E. and Omaha eight-or-better, which is such a fun and very complex game, and my results so far have been very promising, indeed.

The Haunted Main Event

I have pondered over what happened in the World Series of Poker main event and still can't get over the insanity level. Let me explain by showcasing one hand from the main event, day 6:

We were down to 21 players, the average chip count was about 6.5 million, and a seat at the final table was worth almost $1 million, with more than $9 million for first place.

Hand Log (with minor additions from yours truly)

Kelly Kim opened for 275,000, Brandon Cantu reraised to 950,000, and Dean Hamrick moved all in for about 2.5 million total. Kim let his hand go, and it was Cantu's turn to tank. Cantu thought for well over five minutes before saying, "I call."

Cantu: 10 5

Hamrick: A A

There was mass disbelief and gasps from the crowd as Cantu rolled over his hand.

The flop was 8 7 5, and Cantu had flopped a pair of fives. The turn was the 8, which was a bad card for Cantu, as Hamrick had aces up. Cantu paced the floor in back of the table, looking resigned to his fate as his entourage called for a 5. The river was the 10, though, and Cantu had improved his hand, but it didn't help him, as Hamrick's aces and eights was the best hand and he raked in the massive pot.

Cantu was down to 2.4 million after the hand, while Hamrick was up to 5.5 million. Cantu was now the tournament's shortest stack.

My Analysis

So, what really happened here? Cantu called more than 1.5 million more with the 10♠ 5♣? Let's look at the math. Cantu has to call 1.55 million more to win 3.95 million; he needs a 28.2 percent winning chance. Could Dean Hamrick be holding A-K suited? I guess. Is he most likely to be holding an overpair? I suppose. Does that justify Cantu's call mathematically? Hardly. He has a 13 percent chance against overpairs (not to mention about 6 percent against 10-10), and about a 31 percent chance against A-K suited.

Strategically, the decision makes even less sense. I don't especially mind Cantu popping Kim's opening raise (although, if you are a player of Cantu's caliber, you should at least pick a mediocre hand instead of an absolute trash hand to do it with), because from what I heard, Cantu was playing very intuitively and it was very likely that he was picking up on some weakness from Kim.

But let's dwell a second on that weakness. If he really had a tell on Kim, why not make it just 750,000 and leave himself an out if somebody came over the top? Given the same scenario, he would need a 31.8 percent winning chance, making it correct to fold even against two overcards.

Back to the actual action: This time he gets caught, not by the supposedly weak guy he just reraised, but by a guy behind him. Remember - if Cantu folds, he still has about 4 million. The blinds are 50,000-100,000 with a 10,000 ante, giving him an M (stack size divided by the total of the blinds and antes per round) of more than 16. What does Cantu accomplish by gambling in this spot? He lacks the mathematical as well as the strategic justification. Yet, he called. Why?

Conclusion

The honest answer is - I have no clue! This column is not meant to point fingers at Cantu (the guy is a WPT winner, and very unorthodox and dangerous at the table), but the hand exemplifies some of the plays that we witnessed during this year's main event. This is not a unique case. A growing number of players are making plays and moves that are impossible to categorize. Forget "aggressive," and forget "hyperaggressive." Try "insanity."

The interesting thing is how to combat these players? Dean Hamrick had an easy play, but what do you do when one of these guys re-reraises you all in preflop, or, as Cantu did earlier in the main event, shoves for his whole stack on a Q 10 10 2 board and has you covered? Do you call without a full house or at least a 10 in your hand?

The answer is simple: Make up your mind early in the hand! Say to yourself, "Against this guy, whatever happens, I am not going to get away from this hand." Don't try to analyze your way to making "the right decision," because most of the time, there is no apparent logic to find.

Whatever you end up doing and whatever the result, there is no doubt that the "insane" plays have added additional value and entertainment to the game. Bold gambling always will be fun to watch!