Winners Consider Complexities

You may like to keep things simple, but to win at poker, you must consider its frustrating complexity. Unfortunately, nobody has the time or ability to think about everything.

You must therefore assess both the information's importance and your own limitations. Which information is most valuable? How much information can you handle effectively? Balance the need to consider complexity with your own information-processing limitations.

"It Depends on the Situation."

These annoying words are the experts' answer to many poker questions. They consider everyone's position, skill, and style, the size of the pot, the depth of the stacks, and many other subjects.

You may not seriously consider some of these issues. You may want to know a few simple rules for playing pocket aces, a full house, or a flush draw, and there aren't any simple rules.

Some people don't believe it. They essentially ask, "How can poker be so complicated?" Only five cards play; the best hand wins; and all you can do is fold, check, bet, call, and raise.

Poker's apparent simplicity combines with this rejection of complexity to increase the experts' edge. David Sklansky said so on the first page of The Theory of Poker:

"From the expert's point of view, the veneer of simplicity that deludes so many players into thinking they are good is the profitable side of the game's beauty ... Losers ... return to the table again and again, donating their money and blaming their losses on bad luck, not bad play."

Losers may also read a little, hoping to find a few simple rules or formulas that will make them winners. If there were a magic formula, everybody would play the same way, and nobody would have an edge. Some of the winners' edge comes from recognizing and adjusting to the fact that poker is complicated and situational.

In addition to considering more variables than most people, winners adjust their priorities to fit the situation. Sometimes, position is the most important factor. Sometimes, stack sizes are critically important, but at other times, they can be almost irrelevant. The number of opponents and their styles and skills are more important in some situations than in others. Winners constantly ask themselves, "What do I need to know now?"

Adjusting to Your Opponents

The amount and kinds of information you need to consider depend upon your opponents. You can beat the weakest opponents by just playing straightforward, ABC poker. They make so many mistakes that you can essentially play on autopilot.

As the games get tougher, you must consider an ever-increasing number of factors. In the biggest games, nearly everyone plays well, and you must consider factors that most poker books rarely discuss.

"Most poker books deal with hands in isolation, but we constantly relate this hand to everything that has come before and will come after …

"Most books recommend the right way to play these cards in this position on this street against certain kinds of players. That approach works fine except against the tough, observant, and deceptive players you'll find in high-stakes games … They would quickly read you accurately, then give you hardly any action on your good hands and take you off your weak and marginal ones.

"Most books also discuss each street separately, and they hardly ever consider the ways that previous hands and previous sessions affect your own and your opponents' decisions. They essentially encourage you to focus too narrowly and to base your decisions on too little information …

"We emphatically disagree. We believe you should not deal with one bet, street, hand, or even session in isolation. Whatever you do now is affected by the past and will affect the future." (Ray Zee and David Fromm with Alan Schoonmaker, World Class High-Stakes and Shorthanded Limit Hold'em, pre-publication draft)

The Importance of Mental Speed

The more information you must process, the more important mental speed becomes. If you play in games that demand processing a great deal of information, you must think quickly. Mental speed is even more important when you play online. In a cardroom, you can take extra time, but online, your hand gets folded. If you multitable in tough games but think slowly, you can't possibly win.

Good preparation can reduce the negative effects of limited mental speed, but faster thinkers will always have a significant edge. You must therefore objectively assess how fast you think compared to these opponents.

Information Overload

Although you need a lot of information, too much of it can harm you. You can spend so much time processing it that you can't act decisively. Indecisive players don't have a chance. To protect you from information overload, evolution designed your body to process only the most important information.

For example, unlike houseflies, you can't see behind you. In addition, only the center of your eye can see colors and details; most of it can see only large objects and movements. That structure prevents you from being overloaded with information, but if you are threatened because something changes, your focus automatically shifts. Learn a lesson from Mother Nature: Determine which information you need now and make sure you get it.

Winners' Laws

1. Don't oversimplify.

Resist your natural desire for comfortable simplicity and base your decisions on all the important factors. There are often more of them than you expect or want.

2. Understand and work within your information-acquiring and information-processing limitations.

Since you can't consider everything, work within your limitations so that you can act quickly and decisively. Prioritize the information and work on the most important subjects, not the ones that make you most comfortable.

3. Select games that fit your strengths and weaknesses.

If you play against opponents with as much knowledge as you have, but greater ability to acquire and process information, you will lose. For example, if you don't remember exposed cards as well as your opponents, you will do poorly in stud. If you can't deal with all the subjects that top players consider, you can't beat the biggest games. Pick games in which you get an edge from being able to acquire and/or process more information than your opponents.

Warning: Most people overestimate their memories and thinking abilities. Make sure that you're not kidding yourself.

How Do You Rate?

Circle the number that best describes your agreement with this statement: When making important poker decisions, I try to consider every important factor. (7) Agree strongly, (6) Agree, (5) Agree somewhat, (4) Neutral, (3) Disagree somewhat, (2) Disagree, (1) Disagree strongly.

The Critical Questions

Review this column, and then answer two questions:

• What are the implications of my self-rating?
• What should I do differently? List specific actions that you should take to consider complexities more effectively.

Discuss your answers with someone you trust, and take good notes.

Dr. Schoonmaker ([email protected]) coaches only on psychology issues, such as controlling impulses, coping with losing streaks, going on tilt, and planning your self-development. You can buy his books, Your Worst Poker Enemy and Your Best Poker Friend, at CardPlayer.com.