Bluffing in Limit Hold'em: Mission Impossible?

In previous columns, we considered bluffing on the flop. We now will focus our attention on the turn, which offers a different form of bluffing opportunity. To find the previous columns in this series, please go to www.CardPlayer.com.

Bluffing on the turn requires a larger investment because of the double-sized bet.

You will find yourself in one of three possible scenarios, and we will examine each one:

1. Everyone checked the flop.
2. Someone else bet the flop.
3. You bet the flop.

This column will focus on the first scenario, in which everyone checked the flop.

There are two distinct and very different cases here:

• No one raised preflop.
• Someone raised preflop.

No one raised preflop: This situation typically is an excellent opportunity for a bluff by one of the blinds. The fact that this is a fairly well-known bluffing opportunity does not mean it is any less effective. Players with nothing are not anxious to challenge a potential bluff by raising in a small pot, risking two double bets for a small reward. The bluff by one of the blinds also has credibility in that he could have been, and sometimes was, checking the flop while hoping for an opportunity to check-raise. His turn bet could easily be top pair or better.

Of course, the turn card matters. An overcard, especially one in the "limping zone," increases the possibility that someone has made a hand good enough to call. Cards that pair the board or undercards to the top card on the flop are the best to bluff at. If you are in the small blind with J-3 and three other players check a flop of 9-5-2, bet if the turn is a 9, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, or 2. Note that this list does not include an 8. The 8 gives hands like J-10 or Q-10 draws plus overcards, and may induce them to call you. True, they are not getting the right price, but many opponents make this sort of call when they believe they have multiple outs regardless of the math, especially if they believe that you could be bluffing.

Regardless of your position, if you bet and get called, it makes a difference who calls. You would rather be called by a voluntary player than a blind. The blinds' hands in an unraised pot can contain any cards, and therefore could have enough of the board to call possible bluffs. Furthermore, they had at least one chance to bluff already and did not do it, slightly increasing the likelihood that they have a little something. Other players may have picked up draws, and still may fold on the river if you elect to continue to bluff.

Assuming the blinds continue to check, should you try a bluff from other positions, including the button? Much depends on how the blinds play. If at least one is a tough player, you need to ask yourself why he did not take a shot at the pot when it seemed to be "for sale." Timid blinds increase the chances for a successful bluff.

A second consideration is how likely anyone is to believe that you now have a betting hand when you did not bet on the last round. Will someone be suspicious enough to call you with ace high, or raise as a resteal?

If you are selective, you can bluff even from the button. While it is true that most will suspect you are bluffing, they may not have the goods or heart to do anything about it. After all, the pot is small, they have nothing, and probably just want to get on to the next hand.

Someone raised preflop: The pot is typically larger, and therefore the risk-reward ratio improved, but bluffing in this scenario is more problematic. Someone raised preflop and then checked the flop. There are three possible motives for this check, and you need to figure out the most likely. One possibility, and a frequent one, is that the preflop raiser has flopped a very good or great hand, and does not want to lose players by betting the flop. Players with hands like 9-9 on a 9-6-3 board, and A-K on an A-8-3 rainbow board sometimes check the flop to induce later action. If you have seen the raiser bet with nothing after he raised preflop, this check is almost always too dangerous to bluff into.

The second possibility is that the preflop raiser has a decent hand but is afraid of better ones, and just plans to call to the river. Many players treat a hand like J-J this way on an A-9-4 board, or even K-K on a flop of Q-Q-5. They just want to be passive and see a cheap river. Clearly, neither of these cases would be good for bluffing.

Of course, the third possibility is that the preflop raiser has decided to give up. This happens often on high flops such as A-K-5 when the raiser has a hand like 8-8 and gets more than one caller. Other times, the raiser has A-K but the flop is scary, like 9-8-7 with two cards in a suit that the raiser does not possess. Compounding the factors you must take into account when deciding to bluff is that others may have a decent hand, but be checking for fear of the raiser. Nevertheless, bluffs do sometimes work here, as opponents know that you may have checked the flop with a big hand to trap the raiser.

If there is only one opponent plus the raiser, you are getting 2-1 on your bluff (plus, perhaps, the blinds). If you know that the raiser will quit if he misses the flop and turn, go ahead and try it.

Our last consideration is that you were the preflop raiser, but checked the flop because you had nothing. Now, your opponents check the turn, as well. Should you bluff at the turn?

Often, the answer is, "Yes." If the board has low cards, your opponents will often bet the turn with real hands to keep you from getting another free card with a hand like A-Q. If the board has an ace, opponents will fear that you trapped on the flop with a hand like A-A or A-K, and will defer to a turn bet. After all, they do not want to be the ones paying you off for two big bets when they would have been happy to fold on the flop after you flopped a monster. Sometimes, suspicious and passive players will call your turn bluff, but you are getting a good price to make the attempt.

Next issue, we will examine the second and third scenarios and their bluffing opportunities on the turn.

Barry Tanenbaum is the author of Advanced Limit Hold'em Strategy, and collaborator on Limit Hold'em: Winning Short-Handed Strategies, both available at www.CardPlayer.com. Barry offers private lessons tailored to the individual student. Please see his website, www.barrytanenbaum.com, or write to him at [email protected].