Railbird Roundtable -- Dutch Boyd

In this column, we’re going to explore a stud eight-or-better hand that I played in the PokerStars Sunday $200 H.O.R.S.E. tourney. Four players remain, and the payouts are $12,700, $8,700, $5,875, and $4,050. We’re playing 6,000-12,000 limit/1,200 ante/1,800 bring-in.

When I e-mailed this hand out to a group, Dutch Boyd provided a great response, so he is the guest writer for this column. I’ll chime in later in Pro Analysis.

Results:
Hero shows 3 2 4 Q A 8 7 (high: ace high; low: 7-4-3-2-A)
Seat 3 shows 3 7 6 8 A 9 8 (high: a pair of eights; low: 8-7-6-3-A)
Seat 5 shows A Q Q 10 2 Q K (high: three queens)

Dutch Boyd’s Analysis

Hero has one of the best hands, and if completing is ever correct when bringing it in, that would be the move. But I don’t think it is ever correct to complete as the bring-in in stud eight-or-better. It’s a higher EV [expected value] play to bring it in for the minimum and then raise.

In this spot, hero should put in the third raise. He might get rid of seat 3. He also gives seat 4 a chance to reraise, and the guy looking at split queens or bigger may give it up, as well, after putting in two bets. Regardless of what happens, if hero is planning on calling on fourth street even if he bricks, putting in more raises on third street makes it less of a negative play to call if things go bad on fourth street.

Fourth Street

Since hero didn’t build the pot on third street, it’s not a horrible move to ditch the hand. With two fives out, his chances of making the straight and scooping go way down. So, he’s drawing for half the pot. If he bricks again on fifth street, he’ll definitely have to fold — and if he hits on fifth, he could easily get in a spot where he’s trapped in the middle of two jammers. Reverse implied odds start to pop up heavily. I wouldn’t fault somebody for folding here; with four players left, the money jumps are significant, and while a call might be mathematically correct, my gut tells me that the majority of the time, he’s not going to make a hand worth half the pot here. A fold is almost certainly correct if he isn’t the last one to call and could expect to face a raise and a reraise, but since he is closing the action, calling here is fine.
Fifth Street

This is a critical street of this hand. Hero has to put seat 3 on either a pair with a low draw or, more likely, a made low with draws to a high. Now is the time to make one of those subtle moves, because if he has the made low, hero has an opportunity to turn his hand into a winner by betting out and hoping that seat 3 is sitting on a made low and raises. If that happens, seat 4 and seat 5 may well decide to ditch their hands, and hero would be running a 3-2-4-Q-A against a 3-7-6-8-A, which is a much better spot to be in — particularly with the two dead fives. If it plays out that hero bets, seat 3 raises, and the other seats fold, hero now has a much better chance of winning at least half the pot, and if he makes his low, he is in a good position to scoop.

Sixth Street

Nice hand. Hero just made a naked low with practically zero chance of scooping and a big chance of getting counterfeited.

Normally, he’d want to be doing his best to push the stragglers out here by raising, but this isn’t the time to raise the bet of seat 5. If seat 4 is in with two pair, hero wants to keep him in. If he’s in with a low draw, he probably is also drawing to a straight and isn’t going anywhere. Either way, hero wants him to be putting in as much money here on sixth street as possible. Hero’s best bet is to call the queens, giving seat 3 a chance to either call seat 5 and induce an overcall from seat 4 or raise and maybe get a stubborn call from seat 4 and a call or a reraise from seat 5. At that point, hero can put in the third or fourth bet. Call, planning on reraising if seat 3 raises.

River

An obvious mistake, as hero must bet here. The first reason is that he needs to condition players to think that they’ll always be facing a bet or raise on the river when he has a lock on at least half the pot (and possibly induce sixth- and seventh-street mistakes on future hands). The second reason he needs to bet is that there is a non-zero percent chance that seat 5 will fold.

There is zero risk in betting. He’s not going to raise.

It’s worse to underestimate your opponent than to overestimate him, but overestimating him is still bad. You have to give your opponents the opportunity to make huge, obvious mistakes. Check out my site, PokerRetards.com, if you need examples to remind yourself that the bet should be made.

Pro Analysis

A-Q high might beat the all-in player for a scoop, if somehow the other guy folded. Players who religiously avoid betting into dry side pots don’t get paid off as often when they actually have a real hand. … I assume that my opponents have looked at their holecards before they put money into the pot … the river card is random. The other two are almost assuredly low cards. If the all-in guy made a 6 low, which is not unreasonable to think, hero could score a great coup, getting the high half of the pot by forcing the other guy to fold.

In tournaments, you see some pretty surprising folds, when someone doesn’t want to give up that bet on the river. If this river bet got you half the pot, expect your opponent to say, “I didn’t think you were dumb enough to bet if you had no way to scoop me.” — Barry Greenstein, from the PokerRoad forums

There’s no reason not to bet seventh street. Sure, seat 5 will usually call, but hero is guaranteed half the pot, so he doesn’t lose anything when this happens. If seat 5 makes a mistake and folds, hero’s equity goes way up, as he now has a chance to win the high pot from the all-in player. It’s basically a no-risk freeroll. — Justin Bonomo

I did not bet the river because I didn’t feel like the value that I gained from the small percentage of the time that I would force the Q-Q to fold and beat the all-in player with A-Q high was worth the risk of remaining four-handed. By checking, I guarantee at least another $1,825 to my payday, whereas if I bet, get the Q-Q to fold, and can’t beat the all-in player for high, I risk finishing in fourth place. If this were a cash game or any other tournament situation besides just a few left at the final table, I’d be betting here every time. — Bryan Devonshire

Bryan “Devo” Devonshire has been a professional since the fall of 2003, after going jobless in Colorado. An expert wilderness guide with a specialization in white-water rafting, he got his start propping a $2-$5 spread-limit game in Cripple Creek, Colorado, while serving on Search and Rescue. He hit the tournament scene in 2006, taking second in his first-ever World Series of Poker event; to date, he has cashed for more than $800,000 live and more than $380,000 online. A Southern California native and Las Vegas resident, he can be reached at [email protected].