The Pitfalls of Running Good

I’ve always thought that one of the worst things that can happen to new poker players is for them to run really good right out of the gate. If they rack up a number of big wins early on, a couple of bad things can happen. First, they get unrealistic expectations about the game. They think winning comes easy, and they think solid strategy is much simpler than it really is. This may cause them to ignore sound advice, and it also can make the inevitable bad runs that much harder to take. Second, they reinforce bad habits. As long as they’re winning, whatever they’re doing must be right, right?

People talk a lot about how to handle bad runs, but I think learning to avoid the pitfalls of running good is just as important. During good runs, we often pick up bad habits and allow ourselves to get careless. These tendencies come back to haunt us over the long term. I’ve identified five pitfalls of running good that you should look to avoid the next time the cards smile consistently on you.

Entering Unprofitable Pots
This one is simple and, I think, nearly universal. Almost everyone who runs good for an extended period of time begins to loosen up. In more sober times, we’d perhaps fold the K 9 from five off the button. But in our manic state, this hand begins to look like just another opportunity to drag a huge pot. We loosen up by opening more pots from out of position, and we loosen up by calling more raises, from both in and out of position. These subtle adjustments will prove to be costly over time.

If you’ve been running good, allow yourself an extra second to make preflop decisions. If you see a hand that looks playable, don’t just toss your money in. Think about whether this hand fits in well with your overall game plan. Don’t play the hand just because you’re a little more excited to see a flop than usual.

Attacking Strong Players
Part of being a good poker player is learning to pick on weak opponents. But when you’ve been running good, everyone at your table can at times look like an appropriate target. If this happens, you can find yourself attacking the wrong types of players, and your long-term results can suffer. Here’s what I’m talking about:

A large pot takes place between a bad player, Barry, and one of the stronger players at the table, Sal. At showdown, Sal shows an unexpected hand and loses. He played the hand unconventionally and lost a big pot as a result. Another strong player, Steve, who has recently been running good, observes this hand and concludes that Sal is perhaps not such a strong player after all. Steve then decides to try to pick on Sal, entering many of his pots with weak hands to capitalize on Sal’s bad play.

Here’s the problem: Sal isn’t really all that bad a player, and he’s going to know how to handle Steve’s overzealousness. Steve should be attacking Barry, the bad player, not Sal, the strong player who played one hand a little strangely. Yet, I’ve seen this scenario play out time and again at the table. Don’t let your ego get the better of you. Stay focused on the truly weak players at the table.

Trying Bad Bluffs
Players who have been running good likely have had recent success with bluffing. This success encourages many players to launch more and more daring bluffs. Eventually, they cross the line and begin to make wild and unprofitable bluffs. When these bluffs get called, the error often passes unrecognized. “Can’t win them all,” the player shrugs.

If you’ve been running good recently, give your gutsy and aggressive plays an extra few seconds of thought. Is it really a good bluffing opportunity, or are you just amped up to get your chips in the middle? The big bluff is a potent weapon that should be used sparingly. If you find yourself frequently thinking, “I can’t win if I don’t bet,” you may want to dial your aggression back just a little.

Adopting Pet Plays
Let’s say that last week, you played the following $1-$2 no-limit hold’em hand:
A player opened for $7, and the button called. You called from the big blind with the J 9.

The flop came A J 9, giving you bottom two pair.

You checked, the preflop raiser bet $20, the button folded, and you check-raised to $50. Your opponent called.

The turn was the 9. You checked, the button bet $60, and you check-raised all in and got called by A-K.

Since playing this hand, you’ve been absolutely on fire, winning several thousand dollars. You’ve tried this double check-raise play several more times, mostly with good results.

The flop and turn double check-raise could become your new pet play. After a few successes, you might begin to use the play whenever possible. Every flop becomes yet another opportunity to break out the double check-raise. Don’t let that happen!

Pet plays are bad for a couple of reasons. In most circumstances, a simple play — betting the flop and the turn — is stronger than a complicated pet play — check-raising the flop and the turn. Therefore, if you overuse pet plays, you are consistently choosing inferior lines. Beyond that, if you use these plays too frequently, they become very predictable. You’ll gain a reputation as the person who double check-raises all the time, and your opponents will adjust.

If you find yourself using a new play much more frequently than usual, spend some time away from the table to think about when this play is really best, and when a simpler, more straightforward play might be better.

Spending the Spoils
The last pitfall is very common and can be extremely damaging to a bankroll. People spend their winnings when they run good. Obviously, money is ultimately for spending, but many people go way overboard with frivolous spending after a good run. Definitely enjoy your good fortune, but also remember that leaner times will inevitably be in your future. Winnings in the good times help subsidize losses in the bad times, but only if you haven’t spent the money already.

After a good run is a good time to rework your personal budget. That way, you’ll know exactly how much of the winnings you’ll need for a rainy day, and how much you can burn.

Ed’s brand-new book, Small Stakes No-Limit Hold’em, is available for purchase at smallstakesnolimitholdem.com. He is a featured coach at stoxpoker.com, and you can also check out his online poker advice column, notedpokerauthority.com.