‘Easy’ Things to Do to Win at Poker — Part V

This series focuses on things you can do at the table to improve your decisions. I am using the following list:
• Pay more attention
• Select the best games
• Learn how your opponents play
• Study betting patterns
• Analyze every situation
• Plan in advance
• Play focused on the game
• Count the pot
• Compute the odds
• Figure out how the play might go
• Estimate what your opponents think you hold and how you should respond
• Then, make a decision

My last column discussed observing and learning your opponents’ betting patterns, as well as monitoring your own (all of the columns in this series are available at www.CardPlayer.com). Now, let’s start putting all of this learning and observing to use.

Analyze every situation: Here is a simple example. I was playing in a loose $40-$80 game in which several players saw every flop. However, the players were not identical. There were looser ones driving the action, and they were seated, appropriately, to my right. I would say that each of them played upward of 80 percent of the hands.

Against the odds, all four of these players were directly to the left of the big blind, and all of them folded. I was next to act, and noticed that the two tightest players were in the blinds. I had a fairly tight image, had shown down (and played) only quality hands, and had been winning lately. The player on my left looked disinterested. This seemed to be a better-than-average chance to steal the blinds, so I raised. Everyone folded, and I won.

Yes, I know that I did not mention what my hand was; it was not important to my analysis and my action. In fact, it was the 6 3. Now, if I were not an analytical player who assessed every situation, I would have looked at my hand when it was dealt, decided it was not worth playing, and gone back to watching TV or texting my friends. Then, after being told that it was my turn, I would have folded my trash quickly and never realized that I had missed an opportunity to pick up some chips.

More complex situations: As I mentioned in previous columns, most situational decisions are far more complex. Even if you have a good handle on the tendencies of every player (which rarely happens), deciding on how to act when several are involved in a pot together requires an in-depth analysis of the current situation. No rule or road map will get you to the best answer.

You have a fairly short period of time to decide, and even if you had a week, you still would be wrong sometimes. All you can do is make the best decision you can in the time allotted. Being able to consider quality information gleaned from your previous observations and experience in making these decisions is your only advantage.

Let’s try another real-life example. You are playing $30-$60 limit hold’em and hold the 9 7 on the button. There are a few weak players at the table, and you have been stretching to get involved in pots with them. In spite of that, you have not played much. A weak player open-limps from middle position, with one decent player and one poor player calling along. You can make a case for folding, calling, or raising. Folding is possible because you have a weak hand. Calling might work because you have position, a decent volume hand in a volume pot, and weak opponents. A raise might eliminate the blinds, and even give you some bluffing chances if everyone misses the flop. Not all reasons are good reasons, however, and you decide, correctly, to call.

The small blind calls but the big blind raises. What do you know about him? He is a good but straightforward player. That means that he has a big hand, and it’s not some tricky volume raise with 5-5 or J-10 suited. A-A, K-K, A-K, Q-Q, J-J, and maybe A-Q is his likely range. Everyone calls, including you.

The flop is 7 6 3. The small blind checks, the big blind follows up his raise with a bet, the two weak players call, and the decent player folds. You count 15 small bets in the pot. You certainly are not folding here, and a raise cannot accomplish much. About all you can do with a raise is perhaps get a free card or build a pot (nobody who called will fold, so you cannot protect your hand). You also may get three-bet by the preflop raiser, thus lowering your price to improve. You call, and the small blind folds.

The turn is the 10. Surprisingly, the big blind now checks. The next player also checks, but the guy on your right fires out a bet. Now what? There are nine big bets in the pot and you have a pair and a gutshot-straight draw. That is about 7-1, but there is a flush draw out there now. A 9 would give you two pair, which might be good, but someone could have an 8. Nevertheless, you are getting the right price to call.

But keep analyzing. What does everyone have? The preflop raiser figures to have A-K or A-Q. Yes, he may have something else, including 10-10 and be planning to check-raise, but that is remote. If he had a big pair, he would have kept betting, as nothing scary has happened. The weak player could have anything, but there is no indication that he has any sort of hand yet. Possibly, he has overcards or some sort of draw. What about the guy who bet? Doesn’t he have to have a 10? He might, but he sure doesn’t have to. He may have something like 5-5 that he is hoping is the best hand, or he may have picked up a flush draw and decided to bet when everyone before him showed weakness.

There is a decent chance that you have the best hand right now, and if so, you need to protect it. Raise! You do, and both checkers fold. The other guy calls. The K hits the river, to the consternation of your opponent, and he checks. It bothered you that he called your raise so effortlessly, so you also check (betting might have been better). He shows down the A 6, so your sevens hold up. Your extra analysis and turn raise saved the pot for you.

In my next column, I will discuss advance planning.

Barry Tanenbaum is the author of Advanced Limit Hold’em Strategy, and collaborator on Limit Hold’em: Winning Short-Handed Strategies, both available at www.CardPlayer.com. Barry offers private lessons tailored to the individual student. Please see his website, www.barrytanenbaum.com, or write to him at [email protected].