Card Player Pro

Game: 50¢-$1, $100 buy-in no-limit hold’em cash game
Opponent: Unknown tight-aggressive player
Stacks: $103.79 (his); $104 (mine)
My Cards: 9 9
My Position: Button

Many of my students ask me, “When are the best times to bluff?” While there’s no easy answer to such a broad question, I normally respond, “In spots where your opponent rarely has a strong hand.” In this column, I’m going to discuss a great spot to steal a pot away from your opponent.

In this hand, the action was folded around to the cutoff, who at this point appeared to be a tight-aggressive player, and he raised to $3. I elected to flat-call with the 9 9 on the button. The blinds folded.

I prefer flat-calling with 9-9 in this spot over reraising in a cash game; 9-9 is very often going to be the best hand, but if I reraise, he’ll likely just fold hands that I’m in good shape against and reraise with hands that have me in trouble.

The flop came A J 10.

My opponent checked, and I checked.

As a poker player, you should always be looking for spots where your opponent is likely to have a weak hand. This is one of them. When a solid opponent checks a board like A-J-10 with a flush draw, it’s very rare that he has a strong hand. With any hand A-Q or stronger (A-A, A-K, A-Q, A-J, A-10, J-J, J-10, K-Q, and even spades), we’d expect him to bet to protect his hand and build a pot. His check signals weakness.

However, while I think he is weak here, I don’t like betting on this flop. Many hands that he checks aren’t folding to one bet. Hands like K-10, K-J, and Q-J all have pairs and straight draws, and likely aren’t folding on the flop or the turn if I bet. Plus, there is a chance that he checked a weak ace, such as A-6, but will not fold if I bet. I’d rather wait until the turn and see what he does.

The turn brought the 4, and my opponent checked again.

Now, I’m quite convinced that he doesn’t have a strong hand. Had he checked with K-Q, a set, or two pair — I’m almost certain that he would bet this turn. After a slow-play failed on the flop, most players will begin betting on the turn to try to win some money. His double check on this board means that the strongest hand I can expect him to show up with is K-J.

With the pot sitting at $7.15, I bet $5.

Given that I expect my opponent to have a hand such as K-J or Q-J, I don’t expect him to fold to my turn bet alone. However, if I bet the turn and the river, he’ll be very likely to fold his second-pair hand if his draw misses.

My opponent thought for a few seconds, and called the $5 bet.

The river brought the 5. My opponent led out for $7.

Bet-sizing tells are some of the biggest clues about an opponent’s hand strength — and my opponent’s small river bet here screams of weakness. Given my assumptions about the flop and turn, I already think it’s hard for my opponent to have a strong hand. This river bet just proves it. If he was being tricky with a hand like two pair, a set, or a straight, we’d expect him to make a big river bet and try to get paid off. This small bet is likely to be just a weak “blocker bet” with a pair of jacks or tens.

So, what should I do? Raise!

Without much hesitation, I raised to $30. Notice that this isn’t a huge raise. It’s just under a pot-sized raise. It’s big enough to force him to fold a weak hand, but small enough that if he reraises, I can safely fold.

My opponent folded almost instantly, and I took down the pot with what turned out to be just fourth pair.

When playing poker (either online or live), practice looking for spots where you don’t expect your opponent to have a strong hand. As you begin to recognize these spots, you’ll find yourself stealing more pots and improving your bottom line.