Mea Culpa

It’s human nature not to take criticism well. Some people are better at it than others, but it’s not something that most people have an innate skill for, which is a shame. Most of the hands that I write about in the column contain at least one mistake, and I have been accused of criticising people unfairly. However, I never claim to play without mistakes, it’s just to this point few of my (poker) mistakes have made it to television. If Phil Ivey can misread his hand nearing the end of the WSOP, then anyone can make a blunder from time to time!

In the interests of fairness I thought I would recount a hand I played recently where I made a huge error. In terms of equity it was about as big an error as it was possible to make in the particular tournament. 

I don’t play a lot of tournaments, and I don’t play live very much. But I ran into my favourite dealer in Dublin, Jacques from the Sporting Emporium, and he told me about their monthly deep stack tournament, which runs on the first Sunday of every month. It sounded good so when I found myself with some free time on the relevant Sunday, I entered. I ran very well for the entire tournament, and got down to fivehanded with 80,000 in chips, which put me in joint first position.

The other stacks were 10,000, 30,000, and 45,000. We were on the bubble. The villain was a very nice, elderly chap, quite loose preflop and passive post-flop. We played this hand earlier:

I raised K-J under-the-gun. He called from the big blind. The flop was K-9-4. He bet 2,000 and I called. The turn was a queen and he bet around 2,000 again. I made it 6,000 or so, he called. On the river, a K, he bet 5,000, and I made it 15,000, he called with K-3 and I won.

So onto the hand itself. It’s folded to him in the small blind and he completes. I check my option with J-3 suited. The flop is 5-3-3 with two hearts. Check, check. The turn is a king and he bets. I call. The river is a two. He bets 5,000, I make it 17,000, and he insta-shoves. So I have trip three’s with a jack kicker, no flush or straight possible.
 
Usually when I raise in a situation like this it’s with the intention of instantly folding to an all-in. Normally in the games I play in, no player will ever value-shove a worse hand than mine. However, as soon as he pushed, I realised that I actually had more of a decision here than I thought I did. I normally play online cash games during the day, and they play very differently than a live tournament. I suddenly realised that this player would probably view any three here as a monster, and could well push all in. The players I am used to would only push with houses or A-3, making it an easy fold. So as always in these situations I begin to consider what range he has.
 
Having played with him all day, I think there is about a one percent chance he is bluffing here, maybe less. You can probably discount A-3 somewhat because of the limp. I also think it’s unlikely he limped with a big pair hoping to trap me. He seemed to play very honestly preflop and would have raised with 10-10 or K-K, possibly limping with 5-5 though. I think it’s unlikely he has an overpair or A-K, although I can’t totally discredit it. So what hands could he have that beat me? A-3, K-3, Q-3. Both 5-3, and 3-2 are possible but unlikely as he would probably fold them preflop unless they are suited. He could also have 5-5. And the hands I beat are 10-3, 9-3, 8-3, 7-3, 6-3, and 4-3. (This actually illustrates the problem with simple range calculations, there are far more variables than you would initially think. First off, he is more likely to call pre with A-3 or K-3 than 10-3 or 9-3, and second of all he is more likely to push with the former as well. But since this is an article and not a book I’ll leave the analysis to a simple question of ranges).

I need to call approximately 60,000 into a pot of 160,000, so I need about 36 percent equity. Based on those ranges I have just under 50 percent, so going on that, it’s a simple call. (Obviously in real life you can’t check your equity against a range, but it’s important you are able to hazard a rough guess). However since we are on the bubble, it’s not so simple. If I call and lose here, I am out of the tournament and get no money. If I fold I am still in second position, and have a very good seat. I thought for a good long while before folding. He said later he had 9-3 (which I beat!) and I believe him. He was far too nice to do it to try and tilt me.

I was annoyed at myself at the time, because I thought that he is capable, and perhaps likely, to push with all threes, and I beat most of the hands containing a three (he could definitely limp with 7-3 etc.). I eventually folded because I knew I was going to be beaten a good percentage of the time, and I didn’t think it was worth the risk. This made me feel terrible as it’s pretty much the opposite of the attitude I normally take. I had a great seat though, which I felt was worth a good bit of equity, and was taking advantage of it. I think it’s actually a fold if you run the numbers using the ICM (Independent Chip Model) which takes into account the bubble, and the general rule that in tournaments the value of chips are not linear. 

It’s a strange scenario because there are two factors here that are important; one is that if this was a cash game you would rely solely on your pot odds to make a decision, so you would call here because the pot odds suggest you should. However, in a cash game as opposed to a tournament, the pot odds would change, because the players range would be different, so you would in fact fold, as he would only ever be pushing houses.

Daragh Thomas has made a living from poker over the last three years. He also coaches other players and writes extensively on the boards.ie poker forum, under the name hectorjelly.