Sports Desk

Champions League
We’ve already seen the Champions League winners. They may not have looked like winners at the time, but we have witnessed them in action — impressive or otherwise. With the field whittled down to 16 teams and the chaff eliminated or, even worse, relegated to the Europa League, we now try to identify the team that will lift that famous trophy in the Santiago Bernabéu next May.

To the cynical mind, the league element of the competition does little but almost guarantee safe passage for the bigger clubs and secure several big TV paydays for UEFA. From a betting point of view, the league can be dangerous. Some people witness something impressive in September or October and presume that level of form will continue throughout the season. More often than not, it won’t. Based on the clearest evidence we have at hand, bookmakers, and exchange layers tend to be a little over-zealous when trimming prices based on group stage displays. But it’s rare that the team with the best record in the groups will go all the way. Champions are winners, not perfect, and triumphing in such a competitive tournament is about doing it at those key moments.

Over the years, the Champions League format has changed, but it has always featured at least one four-team, six-game group phase. At one stage winning your group got you directly into the final and at others it earned you the right to go into another group stage. When we look at the eventual winners, it’s clear that — other than ensuring qualification for the knockout stages — the results have little bearing on the winner. The groups are about doing enough, not doing everything. The forgiving nature of the groups means mistakes aren’t always terminal and this breathing space allows progress without necessarily being at the peak of your powers. Of the 17 editions of the Champions League, on average, the eventual winners have won just 61 percent (or around 3.5 of their group’s games). They drew 23 percent (or around 1.5 of their games) and on average slipped to one defeat. They claimed nearly 12.5 points out of a possible 18, which isn’t exactly mind-blowing and is proof that there is room for error. The message is not to get carried away with what happens in the league.

There’s not a whole lot we can take from the raw numbers other than we shouldn’t be looking for perfection. That means although the defending champions flirted briefly with an early elimination, Barcelona are still the team to beat. Chelsea didn’t always impress in what was a straightforward group, but it’s far too early to write off their chances whilst Manchester United and Arsenal, despite their obvious imperfections, are available at tasty prices particularly in view of relatively kind draws for the first knockout round. A team doesn’t need to be perfect to be good enough.

Cheltenham Festival
The stunning scenery, the electricity that hangs in the air, and the drink. There are plentiful factors that combine to make the Cheltenham Festival one of the most enjoyable events on the sporting calendar. And we haven’t even mentioned the horses yet. From the moment the jumps season kicks off in autumn, those few days in March are never far from the forefront of the mind of people on both sides of the parade ring fence.

Being the undoubted highlight of the season, the standard of horse is exemplary. The quality makes almost every race at the Festival unmissable. For the punter the quality is a mixed blessing. Even the most basic method of sifting through the form says low numbers (the more ones the better) by their name are a good thing to see and horses with high numbers (sixes and sevens etc.), or worse still letters (F,PU,U — fell, pulled-up, unseated rider) are to be avoided. When it comes to most of the races, the horses will have a plentiful supply of impressive digits to recommend them. But such is the high standard of the meeting, only horses who’ve been winning or performing well in defeat will get their chance, so good form is essentially a given.

With most of the horses looking so strong, the punter needs to dig deeper to look for other hints at possible success in the Cotswolds. Key among them is the positive of a good run at the track in the past. Some of the big names may have impressed elsewhere, but previous evidence that a horse can handle the tricky Cheltenham terrain is invaluable. Look out for good performances at the track in the past and it will open up a whole new range of possibilities and potentially a few of the “shock” results may not seem so shocking.