Math and Beyond

Recently, I played in the $5,000 buy-in North American Poker Tour event at The Venetian. Will the NAPT end up becoming bigger than the World Poker Tour someday soon? Some poker veterans are betting that it will. After all, the NAPT is broadcast on ESPN2, and it attracted a large number of players for its first two events: 1,529 in the Bahamas, and 872 at The Venetian.

After a few hours of play at my table, an interesting hand came up, but first let me set the stage a bit. Player A was raising quite a few pots, and when he raised from under the gun to 1,600 to go, I made a bad read and reraised to 5,000 with the J 5. He called, the flop came 6 5 4, and we both checked. The turn card was the 7, he bet out 6,000, and I called. The river was a king, and we both checked. When he showed down 9-9, I was thinking that I could have won this pot with a raise on the turn. If I sensed weakness (I did, because I called), I should have made my move! I lied about my hand, saying that I had the A J, which made for a flush draw on fourth street.

Exactly three hands later, my hand of the week came up. I opened for 1,600 with the Q Q, and Player A made it 4,500 to go. Immediately, I sensed that Player A had pocket aces, but my read on him was bad the last time around. I stared at him, and all I could think about was the fact that he had A-A!

I briefly considered folding right then and there, and then I thought that it was a pretty tough fold against a guy who was playing more hands than anyone else at the table. I called 2,900 more, and the flop was 10 5 4. I checked, and he bet 4,500. Again, I sensed that I was up against exactly A-A, but when I counted down my chips, I realized that I had only 15,000 left. Could I really lay this hand down? Finally, I decided not to fold, and I called my buddy Daniel Negreanu over. Lord knows why I did that, but when he walked over, I told him, “I used to be able to fold this hand when my opponent had pocket aces, but I’m just a little bit off my top form.” Then, I announced, “I’m all in.” Player A snap-called my all-in bet (a bad sign), and showed me what I knew that he had: two red aces.

Now, from a mathematical point of view, I absolutely had to go broke on this hand: My opponent was playing tons of hands, I had just mixed it up with him three hands earlier, I didn’t have a ton of chips, and the flop looked really great for my hand. However, poker isn’t about just math; it is also about reading your opponents. In fact, in my 25 years in the poker world, I have been able to get away from hundreds of strong hands with which even other great poker players would have gone broke. And, of course, one time on ESPN, while making a great laydown, I famously said, “I can dodge bullets, baby!” These kinds of “all-star” laydowns are all about reading your opponents well, trusting your instincts, and then making the right move. One or two great laydowns per tournament gives you one or two extra lives.

Putting a positive slant on this situation is important to me. So, I look at it this way: The great news is that I knew my opponent had pocket aces, and next time, I can go ahead and make the great laydown.

Learn more about Phil by going to his website, www.PhilHellmuth.com, and visit his webstore at www.PokerBrat.com.