Good Entrance, Bad Exit

On Sept. 23, I walked into the $16,000 buy-in World Series of Poker Europe main event with my best “poker face” on. Actually, I rode into Leicester Square in a red double-decker bus with a 16-piece band playing and 11 Lady Gaga impersonators singing Poker Face. It was one of my best entrances ever, but I was determined to make a good showing in the tournament, and with 30,000 in chips and a good blinds structure, I liked my chances of making a deep run.

I went in with a plan: I would implement an extremely tight strategy, while giving myself permission to reraise when an opponent raised and seemed weak to me. I pretty much stuck to my strategy, and with the blinds at 200-400 and a 50 ante, the following hand came up:

Everyone folded to the player in the small blind, and he raised, making it 1,200 to go. In the big blind, I looked down at the J♦ 10♦, and called. The flop came 9♣ 8♦ 6♠, and the player in the small blind bet 2,000. I called. The turn card was the J♥, the player in the small blind bet 4,000, and I called. The river was the 2♣, and the player in the small blind bet 10,000. I had only 16,000 left, so this was a big decision for me. After a moment, I called, and he showed down 8-8 for a set of eights to win the pot.

Let’s take another look at this hand. The player in the small blind made a good opening raise to 1,200 to go. My preflop call was pretty standard.

On the flop, he made another good move when he bet 2,000. At this point, I easily could have raised. I mean, I had the nut draw and two overcards to the board. Of course, if I had raised, my opponent would have reraised, and I would have found myself all in with just a straight draw (I would lose even if two jacks came).

But the question is this: Should I have raised on the flop, or not? To me, this is a read-dependent move. If I felt that my opponent was weak, a raise would make sense; and if I was right, I most likely would induce a fold and win the pot. If I felt that my opponent had a medium-strength hand, a raise would be good. I mean, would he move all in with a medium-strength hand? No way. So, the worst-case scenario is that my opponent would call my raise on the flop, then almost certainly check to me on fourth street; I then could check behind him and take a free card. Also, a raise on the flop may induce a fold if he has a medium-strength hand, or open up the possibility of my winning the pot with a bluff on the turn.

If I felt that my opponent was strong, calling would make sense. I did feel that he was strong, so I just called (good move, PH!).

On fourth street, I like my opponent’s bet of 4,000, and my call was pretty standard. When he bet into the jack, he looked pretty strong to me, so a call was OK.
On the river, my opponent made a really good bet of 10,000 into the 14,500 pot. However, he showed the classic tell of betting two 5,000-denomination chips (as opposed to five 1,000-denomination chips and one 5,000-denomination chip, or whatever), which signals strength (I should have heeded the warning). People bet their big chips when they have it! Another fact that supports a fold is that my opponent bet all four streets, and unless he was on a four-barrel bluff, he had my hand beat. People rarely three-barrel bluff these days, let alone four-barrel bluff, so he had to be very strong.

Even though I read him as being strong the whole way, I called. Duh! Bad call, PH. Great entrance, horrible exit! ♠

Learn more about Phil by going to his website, www.PhilHellmuth.com, and visit his webstore at www.PokerBrat.com.