Don’t Let Them Suck Out!

In limit hold’em, improving the probability that your marginal hands will hold up is a big step to becoming a winning player. You’ll commonly flop one pair and bottom two pair. And while they play well against some of your opponents’ ranges, they are very vulnerable when the flop contains straight and/or flush draws or there are several players in the hand.

In a generally passive $30-$60 limit hold’em game at Bellagio, I held the 10♣ 9♠ in the big blind. Four players limped in, and the button raised. The small blind folded, and it was on me. I don’t love 10-9 offsuit, but against many opponents, it’s worthy of a cheap call. I called, as did the rest of the field. The pot was $380, and we took the flop six-handed.

The dealer flopped the Q♣ 10♦ 9♦, giving me bottom two pair, but threatening straight and flush draws were prevalent. Even if my hand was ahead, someone could easily draw out. Any diamond, king, queen, jack, 8, or running pair would almost certainly cripple my hand, and there were other cards that could hurt me.

What was the best way to play my hand? I wanted to eliminate as many opponents as possible, in order to increase my chances of winning. I thought that check-raising the button was the best way to do it. The fact that I had a tight image in the game added strength to that play. I knuckled, thinking that if we all checked, Mr. Button would likely bet this flop.

But, of course, things don’t always play out the way that you planned. The under-the-gun player to my immediate left fired a bet into the pot, was called by three players, and was raised by Mr. Button. Most limit players tend to auto-call when they have put one bet into the pot, especially if it is the small-bet round. In short, I didn’t think that three-betting would eliminate many, if any, of my opponents. I needed to adjust my thinking to the new situation that I faced. I needed a new plan.
Since I didn’t think I could fold anyone, there was little point in reraising.
However, if I flat-called, I could determine my hand strength based on the turn card, and decide if or how I should proceed. If the turn was a damaging card and my hand seemed to be in trouble, I might get away from it cheaper. But if the turn was a blank, I might be able to check-raise, causing some or all of my opponents to read me as having a stronger hand than I actually held, and trigger them to lay down a live draw. That would increase my odds of winning the pot.

I flat-called, and so did the rest of the field. Since Mr. Initial Bettor flat-called and was likely to check the turn, I was in a good position to check-raise Mr. Button if he bet the turn. However, when considering such plays, one must judge the likelihood of the player to bet. If he is the type of player who makes free-card plays or may play the situation passively, the play has diminished odds of working.
A great turn card came, the 4♥. I checked, hoping for a cooperative wager from Mr. Button. He didn’t disappoint me, and bet. I check-raised. Mr. Initial Bettor called the raise cold, but the rest of the field folded to Mr. Button, who called. I was happy with the way the hand was playing. I now had two opponents, and felt that I likely had eliminated some hands that could beat me, adding value to my vulnerable holding.

Of course, making an astute play doesn’t mean that the river can’t kill you. The 4♣ hit on the river, crippling my hand. Now, any queen, overpair, 4, or pocket jacks beat me. I checked, as did both of my opponents. I turned my hand over with the minuscule hope that it was good. It wasn’t, as Mr. Initial Bettor turned over the A♦ 4♦; he had flopped the nut-flush draw and caught two running fours to make three fours. Mr. Button turned over two kings, looking for sympathy. There was none! I pitched my hand into the muck.

Yeah, I lost the pot; you don’t win them all. You just make the plays that give you the best chance to win, and roll the dice. Due to the hands with which my two opponents called my check-raise on the turn, any ace, king, queen, jack, 4, or diamond would beat me. My check-raise did not increase my likelihood of winning as much as I had hoped. That said, in other plausible scenarios, it easily could have created a situation in which I had given myself more ways to win on the river. And in this situation, it was still very likely that someone folded a jack on the turn, thereby enabling me to win the pot if a non-diamond 8 came on the river. You should judge the quality of your play based on the range of hands that your opponents may hold, not on the hands they do hold. Additionally, on the turn, I held the best hand.
The larger the pot and the more vulnerable your hand, the greater the value you gain in eliminating opponents who are likely to be drawing reasonably live. Creating and utilizing plays based on the tendencies of your opponents to effectively eliminate them will add huge value to your susceptible holdings. Consider how a hand will play and how best you can eliminate opponents while assuming the least risk. Your bad beats won’t disappear, but you will win more money over time. ♠

Roy Cooke played poker professionally for 16 years prior to becoming a successful Las Vegas real-estate broker/salesman in 1989. Should you wish to get any information about real-estate matters — including purchase, sale, or mortgage — his office number is (702) 396-6575, and his e-mail address is [email protected]. His website is www.roycooke.com. You also may find him on Facebook.