Auctioning My Column

Just before the main event of the World Series of Poker, Howard and Suzie Lederer throw a huge party called the “World Series of Barbeques.” Back when it was merely big, we held it in my backyard. The noise and fireworks seemed excessive to the neighbors and police, and now it has outgrown my yard and is held at the Golden Nugget. There is also a poker tournament and charity auction to benefit the Boys & Girls Clubs of America. I couldn’t think of anything special to donate to the auction, so I decided that anyone who bid enough could have one of his or her hands featured in this column, along with shameless praise and flattery of the person’s poker expertise. I had envisioned some rich beginner wanting to be featured in order to show his golf buddies how good he was at poker.
Instead, it was purchased by Katy Lederer, Howard’s youngest sister. Katy is not only an old friend of mine, but also the author of Poker Face, which contains some exciting stories of the times when Howard and I were betting on sports. She purchased my column as a present for her boyfriend, Ben Statz. Ben is a financial whiz from New York, but as far as I knew, a poker novice. (I later found out that he had done well trading options and practicing poker against some of the sharpest guys in the country.) We talked briefly, and I told them to write down a few interesting hands for us to discuss, and we’d choose a good one for the column. Never underestimate the Lederers and their significant others. Ben entered the WSOP main event, and calmly plowed through more than 7,300 players to finish 16th! That is an impressive finish even for a seasoned pro, and absolutely incredible for a tournament novice, even a very talented novice. As the Lederer connection became known, cameras started to follow him around. Now the problem wasn’t going to be making him look good, but concealing my jealousy.
In the first hand I want to discuss, with blinds of 50,000-100,000, Ben’s stack was 5 million and he was in late position. He raised to 300,000 with the Q♠ 10♠. This seems fairly standard. Chris Bolt was in the big blind, and reraised to 1.3 million, all in. Now what? The pot is close to 2 million, and it costs 1 million to call. He’s getting 2-1 odds. There are only a few hands that make him a bigger dog than 2-1, and Chris certainly will shove with those hands. But the reality of modern poker is that players make late-position raises with a wide range of hands, and the big blind will often reraise or shove with almost as wide a range. Even if we say that Chris will never reraise-bluff here, and will reraise with only the top 20 percent of his hands, Ben needs to win more than 33 percent of the time to justify a call, and Q-10 suited will win 40 percent of the time. (Amazingly enough, Q-10 suited should call even if Chris reraises with only the top 10 percent of his hands.) Ben did the math correctly, and made the call. He rivered a flush to win the hand, and not surprisingly, Chris, who had the A♥ K♦, was quite upset by this. He shouldn’t have been. Ben’s Q-10 suited will win 40 percent of the time against the hand that Chris actually held.
Late in the tournament, with 16 players left, a similar situation arose. Matt Jarvis raised to 500,000 from the cutoff. This made a pot of a little more than 1 million. Now, Ben was in the big blind against an aggressive opponent whose late-position raise could have been made with a variety of hands. Ben shoved more than 5 million with the A♥ 5♥. Even though he was getting only about 6-5, Matt called with the K♦ Q♥. Considering the pot odds, Matt’s call was a little loose. He needed to be getting at least 3-2 to call against Ben’s probable shoving range. Even though Ben’s hand was at the bottom of his range, it was still a 3-2 favorite over Matt’s actual hand. This time, Ben lost when Matt flopped a full house.
Ben’s plays seem perfect. One opponent criticized him for making a good call. The other one justified a bad call by claiming that he expected Ben to have a larger range than he did. These hands also illustrate the importance of comparing your winning chances to the odds you are getting from the pot. It is especially crucial to do this when the big blind has gone all in. This means that as a caller, your pot odds are your only consideration. If the stacks are deep, implied odds (what you will win or lose later in the hand) become an important factor. For example, the call with K-Q offsuit was too loose with no more betting. If there were more bets to come, it would be a huge blunder, since either a king or a queen could be extremely expensive. ♠

Steve “Zee” Zolotow, aka The Bald Eagle, is a successful games player. He currently devotes most of his time to poker. He can be found at many major tournaments and playing on Full Tilt, as one of its pros. He usually spends much of the fall hanging out in his bars on Avenue A — Nice Guy Eddie’s and The Library near Houston, and Doc Holliday’s at 9th Street — in New York City.