Sports Desk - By Aodhán Elder

Australian Open
The Association of Tennis Professionals (ATP) Tour has the sense of the last days of the emperor about it at present. No-one wants to say it aloud, but it won’t be long before the king is gone and the successors will begin the scramble for his throne. Miles worth of column inches have been devoted to charting the decline of Roger Federer and as yet, it has all proved to be wide of the mark.
As premature as it may be, closer inspection of the levels the “Fed Express” is operating at these days are crucial for the punter. His attempts to win a fifth Australian Open and a 17th Grand Slam singles title in total begin in January and the best price of 3/1 is sure to tempt a lot of punters accustomed to seeing the Swiss legend at odds-on for much of the last decade. But is it a risk worth taking on a player now in the foothills of his 30s?
The short answer is yes, but with a note of caution. The longer version is still yes and expands on the reasons for caution. Without wanting to begin his tennis obituary, there can be no doubt that the most successful player in the history of men’s tennis is now more beatable than at his absolute peak during the mid-noughties. Back then he typically won 90+ percent of his matches throughout a season, while at the end of the 2010 season that figure was hovering around the mid-80s. The difference is minute, but virtually all of those defeats represent an exit from a tournament he was most likely expected to win. The season also featured his most disappointing performances in Grand Slam events since 2003. It says a lot about the breath-taking standards Federer has set that the haul still featured an Australian Open title, a US Open semi-final, and two quarter-final exits, as well as a triumph in the ATP Tour World Finals that suggests age may have some way to go before it catches up with him.
With every tournament that passes, bookies will look to take on the game’s greatest player with ever more tempting prices. Some of the time they’ll look very tempting, so the task for you is to decide if there are too many strings attached.
Six Nations
If any northern-hemisphere nation were still harbouring hopes of going to New Zealand and winning next year’s Rugby World Cup, the Autumn Internationals will have abruptly brought them back from dreamland and into reality. Against Tri-Nations sides, the various members of Europe’s premier national competition managed two victories out of a possible 12. Any attempts at qualifying those harsh stats by saying some of the defeats were by narrow margins and featured valiant losing performances must be rebutted with a reminder that the tourists were at the end of a long and intense southern hemisphere season. There were signs of optimism for most of the members of the Six Nations, but sadly it seems extrapolating the hope beyond this spring’s tournament would be extremely ill-advised.
The Six Nations itself should be highly enjoyable as the fixture list and the progress of the teams making it one of the most open tournaments in years. After Martin Johnson allowed his players to take the training wheels off, England showed some real flair in beating Australia and running the All Blacks relatively close. They’ll expect to win their home matches to Scotland, Italy, and France, but trips to Dublin and Cardiff would still be a concern. With an inexperienced squad, a couple of blips are forgivable, but it’s enough to steer clear of the 7/4 on offer for their first Six Nations Championship since 2003. For all their talent, France face a couple of tough away assignments that make their price of 13/5 look a touch skinny, while the odds of Ireland and Wales at around 3/1 and 4/1 respectively don’t offer enough value considering the size of the task at hand.
After a couple of years in the wilderness, the bet that stands out as value is Scotland at 16/1. Once you’ve stopped laughing, it’s worth considering that they play Ireland, Wales, and Italy at Murrayfield on this occasion. They’ll see those fixtures as being very winnable with their rivals likely to both take and lose points off each other a total of three wins and a decent points difference will have any team in the final shake-up. All things considered, 2010 wasn’t a bad year for the Scots and for trivia fans, their last Five Nations victory came in a World Cup year — 1999. It may be a leap of faith, but backing Scotland has “scrum” appeal. ♠