Thinking a Move Ahead

Taking into account how a hand will play on a following street(s) and correctly adjusting your strategy adds significant value to the hand. To exploit this concept, you need to read how the hand will likely play and apply the correct concepts. Sound easy? It can get mighty complicated.

It was World Series of Poker time in Las Vegas, Bellagio was humming, and I was looking to get a piece of the action. Playing in my $40-$80 limit hold’em game was a varying mix of player textures, some very good players, some loose-passive players, and some weak-tight ones.

A new player posted the blind in front of the button, three players called, and the player in the small blind, a tight preflop raiser, raised the field. I looked down at A K in the big blind.

A-K offsuit loses value with a large field. Not only is the mix of cards left in the deck less likely to contain aces or kings — as they tend to be cards your opponents call with — but much of the value in A-K offsuit comes when you make one pair against opponent(s) holding the same pair with a weaker kicker. Of course, one hand must win, and when the field is large, one pair is often in trouble.

So, what’s the best way to play my hand? Would three-betting blow out some of the remaining field and help protect a hand I might make? Would three-betting get me heads up against a hand I dominate with lots of dead money in the pot? Or would my opponents call the two additional bets, resulting in building a big pot with myself in the lead and out of position. Opponents commonly flat-call postflop after hitting an ace or king when a respected opponent three-bets preflop and leads, thereby giving other opponents cheap shots to draw. My other option was to flat-call and hope to thin the field by raising postflop if I flopped a hand.

I thought about how the hand would play. I read Mr. Tight Preflop Raiser for a big hand, a big wired pair or A-K. I didn’t think he would raise a large field out of the blinds even with A-Q, except possibly if it were suited. This made it very unlikely that he held a hand I had dominated. Also, the tendency of the field that had already called was to stick around after calling one bet, eliminating the hopes of thinning the field. Both of those facts reduced the value of three-betting.

Mr. Tight Preflop Raiser’s propensity to have A-K was reduced by almost half because I held one of each of those cards, making a big wired pair the most-likely possibility. Having played a great deal with him before and knowing his play well, I thought about how he would play his pairs.

Previously, Mr. Tight Preflop Raiser had always led when raising preflop, regardless of whether an overcard came or not. Theorizing he would make the same play made flat-calling the better play. By flat-calling, I disguised the strength of my holding and positioned myself to raise postflop when Mr. Tight Preflop Raiser led and I flopped an ace or a king. That would force other opponents to cold-call a postflop two-bet and possibly confront additional raises, a tough spot in which to call. Conceptually, by flat-calling preflop, I could either reduce the price I was laying my opponents when I flopped a pair or cause them to fold hands they would be correct to call with, particularly if they had to call only one bet. That said, flat-calling assumed the risk of giving someone a better price preflop to draw. Knowing that, I still thought that flat-calling was my best option, so I called. Had I thought Mr. Tight Preflop Raiser would check Q-Q when a king flopped, I would have three-bet preflop.

The flop came A 5 2, giving me top pair, top kicker. The initial blind, Mr. New Player, checked, and Mr. Tight Preflop Raiser led into me. I raised and folded the field to Mr. New Player, who check-raised to three bets. Mr. Tight Preflop Raiser folded, and I was heads up with Mr. New Player.
Intuitively, I didn’t like my hand, but this was a tough read for me, being the first hand I had ever played with Mr. New Player. Furthermore, the fact the pot was large made folding the best hand a costly mistake. Without improving my hand, I called Mr. New Player down and looked at 5 2. He had flopped bottom two pair with a very marginal preflop holding. I tossed my hand into the muck, wondering if I had made the right play. Would he have called two more bets cold preflop?

By flat-calling preflop, I had assumed some risk in order to protect my hand when I flopped a pair, and that risk possibly cost me the pot. Yeah, I know you analyze poker hands from the perspective of expectation, and he also might have added money to the pot I could have won. However, getting 11-1 as last to act in a volume pot, he was feasibly correct in making the preflop call — and I let him make it.

“The best laid plans of mice and men often go awry,” as the old saying goes. Had I made an error to allow Mr. New Player to call only one bet preflop? While I would have rather he folded, his call was close, and Mr. New Player was the only opponent likely to have folded to a preflop three-bet. Was assuming that risk worth the additional value of being able to protect my hand in other scenarios? While it didn’t feel that way at the moment, I think it was. The total blended expectation of all plausible scenarios still made flat-calling preflop the better play. Overall, I would save more pots and more bets than I would cost myself.

When you are thinking about how to play a given holding, think about how it will play. Who will bet? Who is likely to raise? When do you want to protect your hand? Is it even protectable? Can you obtain extra value? How does the expectation play, not just on the current street, but on future streets, taking into account varying cards that may come?
Furthermore, when you know that you made your best decision and it doesn’t work out, don’t beat yourself up over the results. Just keep making the right decisions, and over time the chips will come your way. ♠

Roy Cooke played poker professionally for 16 years prior to becoming a successful Las Vegas real-estate broker/salesman in 1989. Should you wish to get any information about real-estate matters — including purchase, sale, or mortgage — his office number is (702) 396-6575, and his e-mail address is [email protected]. His website is www.roycooke.com. You also may find him on Facebook.