Ahead on the Turn — Part I

This should be a pleasant column. In all of the examples, you are way ahead of your lone opponent in limit hold’em, have position, and he bets (or raises) into you. Your only “problem” is deciding whether to raise now or wait for the river.

All things being equal, it is better to raise on the river. You get him to put at least two big bets in (the turn and river), and with your river raise, he has only one more bet to call. Also, of course, the pot is a bit bigger if you raise the river instead of the turn, giving him more inducement to call. Finally, if the opponent happens to be bluffing, raising the turn will cause him to give up before he optimistically bets the river, costing you a bet.

All things are seldom equal, however, and you need to analyze the specific situation before deciding whether to call or raise on the turn. Let’s discuss what criteria you should use to make that decision.

• Will he bet the river?
• Might he improve to beat you?
• Might he fold to a raise on the turn?
• Some combination of these.

Will he bet the river? Your goal when you are way ahead on the turn and see a bet coming at you is to get three big bets from him. You already have one (his turn bet), so you should plan to get two more.

If you call the turn and he does not bet the river, your plan will not work, so it important to determine whether or not he will bet. Of course, your opponent can always surprise you in any number of ways, but most folks who bet on the turn will bet the river unless something convinces them to check.

The most likely thing to deter his betting is a scary river card. The more likely it is that a river card will intimidate your opponent into checking, the more important it is to raise on the turn. Let’s look at a typical example.

Example 1. You hold A Q and open-raise in late position. The player in the big blind calls. On a flop of K 9 4, he checks, you bet, and he check-raises. You elect to call.

The turn is the 6, giving you the nuts. He bets. You are not especially concerned about him having a huge hand, as his most-likely holding is a decent king, giving him top pair. If nothing bad happens, you would expect him to bet the river, and you could raise.

Unfortunately, something bad is fairly likely to happen: specifically, another heart might hit on the river, causing your opponent almost certainly to check and perhaps not even call your river bet. So, you have to raise the turn. Luckily, in this situation, your opponent may suspect you have a hand like A 9, giving you middle pair and a flush draw, so he may well call this bet and the next if no heart comes.

Might he improve to beat you? This possibility requires some hand reading, but there are times in which it is pretty clear that, although you are way ahead, your opponent has several potential outs. If you raise the turn and one of the possible outs comes, you may be forced to call on the river anyway, due to the size of the pot and the uncertainty that the river card in fact beat you. In this case, you will lose three big bets when you probably had to lose only two.

Because you judge that the opponent has a big hand anyway, there is little danger that he will check the river, so you can safely wait for the river to raise if nothing bad happens, and call if your fears are realized.

Example 2. You hold K Q in the cutoff. An aggressive player open-raises, a middle-position player calls, and you call, as does the player in the big blind. On a flop of A 10 3, the big blind checks, the original raiser bets, and the next player raises. You decide to raise with 12 pure outs and perhaps even the ability to gain a free card later. The blind folds, but the original raiser four-bets. The middle-position player thinks for a while and folds. You call.

You have been playing with this remaining opponent for quite a while and are sure that his four-bet represents a set (though top two is also possible). You were very happy to see the J on the turn, giving you the nut straight. Naturally, the opponent bets. Should you raise?

In favor of raising is that you will certainly get called all the way to the river. In most cases, a typical opponent with a set will bet no matter what comes. You may think that a third spade on the river could slow the opponent down and cause a check, similar to example 1. While that is possible, it is more likely that the bettor believes you already have a second-best hand, maybe A-Q, and are going to call all the way.

In favor of calling is that fact that, if the board pairs, you will be behind quite often and wish you had not raised. You can simply call the river bet and see if your analysis was correct, and you indeed lost this pot. If the board does not pair, you can raise the river and be sure the opponent will (at least) call.

Conclusion. This discussion will continue in the next issue. In the meantime, realize that, though it is rare to have the nuts on the turn heads up and have the opponent bet, it certainly does happen. Thinking ahead about what can happen to insure you get your three bets when leading, while losing only two if you get beat, can make your decisions easier when it does happen to you. ♠

Barry Tanenbaum is the author of Advanced Limit Hold’em Strategy, and collaborator on Limit Hold’em: Winning Short-Handed Strategies. Barry offers private lessons tailored to the individual student. Please see his website, www.barrytanenbaum.com, or write to him at [email protected].