Ahead on the Turn — Part II

In the last issue, we began discussing specific limit hold’em situations in which you are heads up on the turn, have the best possible hand, and your opponent bets (or raises) into you. We explored the factors that go into your decision to raise on the turn or wait to raise on the river. We listed the issues you need to consider:

Will he bet the river?

Might he improve to beat you?

Might he fold to a raise on the turn?

Some combination of these

My last column provided an example and guidance for the first two (that column is available at www.cardpayer.com). This column continues the discussion.

Might he fold to a raise on the turn? Even though your opponent bet, it does not mean he will call all the way to the river. In fact, a show of strength now may cause him to give up his hand immediately, as he faces the prospect of paying two big bets to see if you have what you are representing.

To assess the probability of his folding, you need to consider what he may have and what he will think you have if you raise now. You will also need to take into account the considerations we discussed last issue: A scare card might come that will keep him from betting, and a river card might improve his hand to beat yours.

If there is considerable likelihood that he will realize his position is hopeless, you should call the turn and hope he bets the river. This play is also correct if you believe he may be bluffing, as any raise will end the fun. All things being equal, the only time you should raise the turn in this situation is against a hyper-aggressive opponent who may optimistically commence a raising war.

Example 1. Allow me to recount a hand I witnessed in a recent Bellagio $40-$80 game. On my left was a lovely young mother (LYM) whose husband was a well-known player. We had been chatting, and somewhere out of the blue she said that position was unimportant in limit games because “if people want to call, they will.” I respectfully had to disagree, as I had written a book emphasizing the use of position in limit hold’em. Shortly after that, this hand arose:

An early-position player open-raised, a middle-position player called, and LYM three-bet from the cutoff. Only the two active players called.

The flop was 10 7 3. Everyone checked to LYM, who bet, and both players called. The turn brought the A. Everyone checked to LYM again, who bet again. This time the early-position player check-raised, causing the remaining entrant to fold. LYM three-bet, and, after a bit of thought, the early player folded, ending the hand. LYM flashed me her pocket aces, unnecessarily I thought, as pretty much everyone already knew that.

I thought she had made an understandable, but unfortunate play. She had the nuts on an unthreatening board, and her opponent had raised her. Presumably, he held an ace and hoped she had a smaller pocket pair for her preflop three-bet. If she just called the raise, he would almost certainly bet the river, unaware of the danger lying ahead.
At that point, he may fold to her raise, or he may call because the pot would be larger and it would cost just one more big bet to see if his hand was good. In the worst case, she would win one more bet and could possibly win two.

I did see an irony in this hand, as she could have better used her position to make more money, even in a limit game. I did not feel it wise to point this out.

Some combination of these. It is nice when your decision is based solely on one obvious factor. Poker, however, is seldom that clean. Typically, you need to consider several factors — some of which may be murky — before determining what you hope is the best option.

Example 2. In a $20-$40 game you hold 10 9 in the cutoff. A weak player open-limps in middle position. You decide to aggressively exploit his weakness by raising with your suspect hand. A tough, aggressive player in the big blind three-bets. You can’t figure out if he has a big hand or just knows what you are doing and is trying to counter it. Both the limper and you call.

The flop is J 7 4. The blind bets, the limper calls, and you call. You briefly consider raising for a free card, but a gutshot is not a good proposition to increase your price, plus the aggressive blind easily could be willing to three-bet.

The turn is a lovely 8. Again, the blind bets, and the limper calls, but this time you raise. The blind three-bets, and the limper folds. What should you do?
First, consider scare cards that will cause your opponent to check. The only real problem is a spade, if he puts you on some sort of combination draw such as J 10; that is definitely a holding you might raise with.

On the other hand, your opponent also could be three-betting with A J, so the spade might be bad for you in that regard — it is tough to tell.
Also, your opponent could have a set, in which case you would like to wait for the river to raise to save a bet if the board pairs. However, assuming a set is overly pessimistic, as he could be three-betting with, say, A-A or K-K, especially as this is, for him, a raise-or-fold situation.

Balancing all of this is the fact that your hand is well hidden and unexpected. He will put you on several other possible holdings, as well as a straight, if he even considers that. If he has top set, he may well be willing to go for even more bets on the turn, which you would welcome, as you hold the nuts.

Since it is too hard to diagnose what is a good card and what is a bad card, either for you or for him, I would suggest raising right now. With no real clarity, get the money in while you are sure you have the best of it.

Conclusion. Even when you have position, the nuts, and an opponent betting into you on the turn, you still have to think about and select the best option before you continue. As with most poker decisions, thinking about what goes into such a decision before it arises will give you the best chance to make the most money most often. ♠

Barry Tanenbaum is the author of Advanced Limit Hold’em Strategy, and collaborator on Limit Hold’em: Winning Short-Handed Strategies. Barry offers private lessons tailored to the individual student. Please see his website, www.barrytanenbaum.com, or write to him at [email protected].