A Close Call

Hello, everyone! This is the first of what I hope will be many columns for Card Player, so I’d like to take a moment to introduce myself. Poker has been my primary source of income for more than seven years now, and while I play no-limit hold’em almost exclusively, I’m experienced in both tournament and ring-game play.

I play primarily online — in fact, I’m a member of PokerStars Team Online — but one of the achievements I’m most proud of is my consistent performance in the main event of the World Series of Poker. I’ve played every year since 2006, and in those six years, I’ve cashed five times. What’s more, my three most recent cashes were all top-100 finishes, with my personal best being 35th place in 2008.

My first few columns will focus on key hands from these events that illustrate broader principles about tournament poker and/or live play. This month’s hand comes from my second day in the 2011 main event and provides a concrete example of how the additional information available at a live table can expand your strategic options.

A Tough Decision

Blinds were 400-800 with a 100 ante. Holding a pair of treys one off the button, I raised to 2,200, and the button called. He was loose and particularly liked to call my raises. The small blind folded, but the big blind reraised to 6,800, with about 44,000 behind.

I’d been at the table for only an hour, but I’d observed him opening more than his share of pots. I couldn’t recall any hands he’d shown down, meaning he probably used aggression well. Thus, I gave him credit for recognizing a good squeeze-play opportunity. My raising range was wide, and the button was calling with all sorts of weak hands and generally playing poorly, so there was plenty of incentive to bluff.

The Trouble With Calling

Still, my options were limited. Any four-bet would leave me getting about 2-1 to call an all-in bet. A really good player will lower his standards for what counts as a strong hand in light of the fact that I might four-bet him as a bluff and thereby end up moving in with hands like A-Q or A-J. Against such hands, my treys are a slight favorite, so while I didn’t want to call a shove with a pair of treys, I didn’t want to put so much money in the pot and then fold, either. It was better to avoid putting myself in that spot by not four-betting.

Calling has some appeal. If I knew that my opponent had a big hand, I could “set-mine” (call, intending to play a big pot if I flopped another trey, but fold otherwise). Given the odds of flopping trips, though, I’d have to win his whole stack the large majority of times that I got such a favorable flop. Since he easily could be bluffing, there was no guarantee that he’d put another 44,000 into the pot when I wanted him to.

Thus, for a call to show a profit, I would have to win some pots unimproved, and that’s hard with a small pair. Almost every flop will contain three overcards. I believed my opponent’s range to be wide enough that there were very few flops I could consider safe enough to call.

If I were playing online, I would have folded. When my opponent is nothing more than a collection of pixels on a screen, I have no way of knowing whether or not a particular flop helped him. The cost of guessing wrong is so disastrous that I prefer not to put myself in the position of having to guess at all.

In a live game, though, there is more information available in the form of physical tells. I’m no pokerface-cracking wizard, but this spot was close enough that a few extra pots won here and there based on physical tells would be enough to make a call profitable.

A Tougher Decision

I called. The button folded, and we were heads up to the flop. It came 7-4-2, all with different suits. Short of flopping a set, it didn’t get much safer than this. When my opponent bet 7,500, I was pretty sure I was going to call. I looked him over and didn’t see any obvious signs of strength, so I called. The turn was another 4, and he checked. The pot was now nearly as large as my opponent’s remaining stack. I didn’t think he would risk slow playing anything other than a near lock hand, maybe kings or better, so I felt good when he checked.

My own hand being very vulnerable, I didn’t want to see the river. It could easily pair my opponent or entice him to bluff. Either way, I’d lose a large pot. I had no delusions of getting him to fold a hand better than mine or call with a worse one, so there was no need for a big bet. I bet 9,000, less than one-third of the pot, but enough that he wouldn’t be able to call with two unpaired overcards.

He moved all in. Online, I never would bet without a plan for how I would respond to a raise. In live poker, though, a plan of “bet and then figure it out” is more viable. You may be able to gain information after your opponent raises that you don’t have before you bet — specifically, the way he looks and behaves.

I watched him for a few minutes, but he wasn’t giving me much, so I asked him to move his arm so that I could see his remaining chips. I already knew roughly what he had, but I thought he might reveal something in the way he moved. He didn’t.

I reached toward my chips and watched for a reaction. He blinked and turned toward me a bit. Never taking my eyes off of him, I confirmed the amount to call. My opponent swallowed. I counted out the chips but held them in my hand, leaning toward a call, but still undecided. He blinked again and looked uncomfortable. I pushed the chips into the pot.

“Nice call,” he said, turning over A-Q. Unfortunately, the river was a queen, so I didn’t win the pot, but I did win the respect and fear of the table. I believe that this call deterred others from trying to bluff me, and thereby made future decisions against them easier.

Conclusion

The point of this story is not to teach you how to read physical tells. It’s also not about playing small pairs in three-bet pots. This was a nonstandard line, and not something that I’d recommend you do every day.

Rather, my objective is to show that, to the extent that you can read an opponent, you can afford to put yourself in some difficult spots that you’d otherwise have to avoid. The ability to read tells is an edge like any other, and in poker all of your little edges add up to give you an advantage. Confidence in your ability to read an opponent can be enough to turn a close fold into a close call.

Andrew Brokos is a professional poker player, writer and coach. He’s a member of Poker Stars Team Online and blogs about poker strategy on ThinkingPoker.net. Andrew is also interested in education reform and founded an after-school debate program for urban youth.