I Missed a Read

Poker can get mighty complicated sometimes. General principles and concepts don’t always correlate, requiring intricate weighting analysis to determine the correct play. Sometimes the correct play simultaneously incorporates two different concepts. A bet may have value equity from one opponent and fold equity from another. Sometimes, in the heat of poker battle, these conflicting thoughts overwhelm my mind, preventing it from computing correctly.

It was just before Christmas, when the Las Vegas poker world heats up. Several hours into the session an action player live straddled it under-the-gun (UTG) and was three-bet by a highly aggressive Las Vegas pro. A weak/tight woman raised to four bets folding the field to me in the small blind (SB) holding the J J.

It was a difficult situation to read. Mr. Straddle had two random cards, Mr. Aggressive-Pro’s hand range, standardly wide, was considerably widened by the fact that he was raising a live straddle (which would only increase his aggressiveness and widen his range even more). Ms. Weak-Tight was a very different issue. While the fact that a highly aggressive player was three-betting a live-straddle should increase her aggression, I didn’t know if she knew it. That said, I had to keep it in mind that she might know it.

So, what should I do? I could make a case for mucking. Under standard conditions, I would read Ms. Weak-Tight for a bigger pair or A-K. But this situation wasn’t standard.
That said, trapping myself in a situation in which I was up against a higher pair, out of position and unconvinced of my read wasn’t going to provide any positive equity. But the fact I thought Ms. Weak-Tight would also four-bet with A-K and possibly even less if she recognized that widening her raising range was the correct play in this situation could cause me to muck in some situations in which I had the best of it.

I could call. I could checkraise Mrs. Weak-Tight if I liked the flop and make it a tougher flop call for Mr. Straddle and Mr. Aggressive-Pro. With a pot this large and a vulnerable hand, I would probably want to eliminate them on the flop. Another option was to reraise, representing a big hand, making the pot larger and possibly influencing future play. My thinking was that if I didn’t cap it, Mr. Straddle would cap it as a matter of principle. And knowing that it couldn’t get raised again strengthened the case for raising.

I thought it was a close call. But I chose to raise, feeling it would go to five bets anyway and playing my hand strong could have value on later streets. I capped it, the blinds folded, and as expected, the other contestants called.

The flop came the A 8 5. Of course, I didn’t like the flop. Most of Ms. Weak-Tight’s preflop range that I could beat contained an ace. But knowing I would take one off anyway, looking for a read and not wanting to just surrender a pot this size, I fired. They all called.

The turn card came the 3. After leading an ace-high board and getting three callers I instinctively checked. I knew when it checked around that I had made a grievous error. If either Mr. Straddle or Mr. Aggressive-Pro held an ace, both being of highly aggressive nature and looking to “protect” their hand they would have raised on the flop and if Ms. Weak-Tight held A-K she would have also raised. She probably wouldn’t have raised the flop if she held A-Q, but I questioned whether she would have four-bet preflop with that holding.

I read Ms. Weak-Tight for a big wired pair, but not aces. Because she was weak/tight, and prided herself on saving bets, she might very well have folded to a bet. She was less likely to fold K-K, but it was highly possible she’d fold Q-Q thinking she couldn’t beat A-A, A-K or K-K to a capped tight raiser, that being me. And Q-Q was a significant percentage of her hand range based on how she had played the hand and her previous tendencies.

So, if I read that neither of my other opponents held an ace and therefore couldn’t beat my jacks and that Ms. Weak-Tight might fold half of her range that beat my holding, a bet on the turn was in order in a pot this large. Of course, after I had already checked, that opportunity was out the window.

The river came the A. Since I checked the turn I was getting called by any pair from Ms. Weak-Tight and I checked my jacks. It checked around and Ms. Weak-Tight turned over two queens and took the pot. I was fuming at myself for missing the play.

My error speaks to not reading both my opponents’ hands and how the hand would play out. I’m real tough on myself when I screw up, particularly if it is through lack of attentiveness. It is a read I have the knowledge and ability to make and should have made. I’m not sure Ms. Weak-Tight would have folded her queens, but in retrospect I would have liked to have tried to make her do so.

Once you get beyond hand selection, reading hands is the key to getting the best of it. Being able to accurately assess an opponent’s range and know which plays work best against that entire range will create equity that your unskilled hand reading opponents can’t achieve.

So think about what your opponents may have and what works best against that range of holdings. And most importantly, when you think something will work, pull the trigger on the play.

There is no point figuring it out if you don’t execute the play! ♠

Roy Cooke played poker professionally for 16 years prior to becoming a successful Las Vegas real-estate broker/salesman in 1989. Should you wish to get any information about real-estate matters — including purchase, sale, or mortgage — his office number is (702) 396-6575, and his e-mail address is [email protected]. His website is www.roycooke.com. You also may find him on Facebook.