How the Hell did I Win this One?

Poker hand values shouldn’t be quantified by their ranking, but by how they fare against your opponents’ ranges in the current situation. Of course, knowing how to quantify how they will perform involves accurately reading your opponents’ range as well as knowing how they will play. And sometimes, included in that range, you’ll get some nasty surprises. Some hands that appear to be super strong don’t play nearly as well as intuitive thoughts initially suggest when opponents also hold strong hands that dramatically affect your chances of winning.

I was “all trapped up” holding the 8 7 on a J 10 9 board. I’d flopped the bottom-end straight and an open-ended straight flush draw giving me the false impression I was in “titanic holding” territory. In fact, my money was going to go in bad, very bad. That said, it was nothing getting extraordinarily lucky couldn’t cure!

I had limped in third position in an eight-handed $40-80 limit hold’em game at the Bellagio after a weak-loose tourist had limped under-the-gun (UTG). All three players to act behind me called as did the blinds. We took the flop seven-handed for $40 each ($280 in the pot).

Post-flop, the blinds checked and Mr. Loose-Tourist fired into the field. I thought about slowplaying my big mitt, but the texture of the board, a mid-range three-connecting-straight board that included a flush draw, was highly likely to get significant action whether I raised or not. Slowplaying when you are likely to get action anyway is counterproductive. I hit it a lick, folding the player to my immediate left, was called by Mr. Asian Pro, and then I was three-bet by a business executive on the button. Both blinds folded and Mr. Loose-Tourist called.

I continued to play it fast and four-bet. Mr. Asian-Pro slid in the cap. The fact that he had called as a trap and then raised caused me to read him for a big draw. I thought he would play any strong made hand fast for the same reasons I had chosen to. Mr. Business-Exec and Mr. Loose-Tourist called the cap. $1080 in the pot.

The turn card came the 9, pairing the board. Mr. Loose-Tourist checked and I pondered a bet. As previously stated, I thought Mr. Asian-Pro was on a draw. Mr. Business-Exec would have raised preflop with any hand that flopped a set. Yeah, he might have J-9 or T-9 or a bigger straight, but I could beat most of his three-bet range in that spot. I had no clue what Mr. Loose-Tourist had, but I knew his range was wide and full houses were but a small part of it. I fired.

Mr. Asian-Pro thought for a while and called. Mr. Business-Exec, possibly the only limit poker player on the planet who is slower than me, thought intensely for about a minute and called. Mr. Loose-Tourist check-raised.

It was my turn to go into my “think tank” huddle. Mr. Loose-Tourist led on the flop, something he would do with a wide range of hands, possibly with as little as a queen. That said, I had never seen him check-raise the whole time we had been playing. And in this case, he was check-raising a player who had capped the flop. I thought there was virtually zero chance he was bluffing. I thought about what his check-raising range might be. He could have flopped a straight, of which any would beat mine, but then I held a flush draw. That said, I thought Mr. Asian-Pro likely held a flush draw, one almost surely higher than mine. He could have a full house, in which case I would be drawing to two outs. I also thought he might have three nines and led with Q-9 or 9-8 having flopped a pair and an open-ender.

There was $1400 currently in the pot, $80 for me to call. I was getting 17.5-1 current, almost enough of a price to draw to my two wins from my open-ended straight flush draw. Add to the equation that he might have three nines, extending my price further. Also, the pot could get larger, extending my price even further. I called the $80, unsure of where I was, but not wanting to give up the fight for a pot this large.

To my surprise Mr. Asian-Pro folded. After another long thought process, Mr. Business-Exec hurled his hand into the muck. It was just me and Mr. Loose-Tourist remaining. I was happy Mr. Asian-Pro folded, thinking that most of his range was a flush draw and his fold gave me additional outs should the flush be live. I was clueless as to the holding of Mr. Business-Exec.

The river came the 7. Mr. Loose-Tourist fired again. I thought deeply about folding, but I still had 9-8 and Q-9 as potential hands in his range. With a pot that size and potential hands in my opponent’s range that I could beat or tie, few as they were, I unenthusiastically tossed in $80.

Mr. Loose-Tourist turned over the Q 9, my adrenaline soared. I’d won the pot! I turned over my straight. Mr. Business-Exec declared “you can thank me for that pot….I folded K-Q.” Mr. Asian-Pro confirmed he had a flush draw. The set of circumstances that happened for me to win the pot were extraordinary, I don’t remember any set of circumstances being so long in which I had won in my entire poker career, and I’m an old school guy!

The hand speaks to adjusting your prices to your opponents’ potential ranges, even when you may be drawing dead. If the pot is a significant overlay and you have evaluated your price to still be plus EV, even if some of the time you’ll be drawing dead, you should still call. It also speaks to the concept of making sure, especially in big pots that when you might make big laydowns, you need to be certain you are right. Mr. Business-Exec didn’t read Mr. Loose-Tourist’s hand range the same way I did, and it cost him the pot.

While I understand it is much easier to analyze these types of things in hindsight than in the heat of battle and no player is always exact in his hand range analysis, Mr. Business-Exec had played with Mr. Loose-Tourist for many hours and should have had a better read on him.

Of course, since I was the one that stacked the pot, I’m glad he didn’t ♠

Roy Cooke played poker professionally for 16 years prior to becoming a successful Las Vegas Real Estate Broker/Salesman in 1989. Should you wish to any information about Real Estate matters-including purchase, sale or mortgage his office number is 702-396-6575 or Roy’s e-mail is [email protected]. His website is www.roycooke.com. You can also find him on Facebook.