I Sure Got Straightened Out!

When playing a straight draw, knowing when to hold’em and when to fold’em can get mighty tricky. The decision comes down to the implied price the pot is laying you versus the odds that your hand will win. Of course, quantifying that equation exactly is impossible, and you’re reduced to best guess estimates. And when you’re guessing, mistakes are inevitable.

I was in a loose Sunday afternoon $40-80 limit hold’em game at the Bellagio with a mixture of both passive and aggressive players. Several players limped and the cutoff pumped it to $80, folding the button. Holding the J 9 in the SB, getting $250-60 currently, with my implied odds significantly higher, I called the $60. The BB, the most aggressive player in the game, three-bet. Everyone called, $720 in the pot.

The dealer turned the Q 10 10. I’d flopped an open-ender, but a very precarious one. It was the low-end straight draw, with two suited cards on a paired board. Additionally, the fact that high cards were on the board only increased the chances that the potentially most dangerous hands for my holding were in my opponents’ ranges.

With the board paired, someone might have already flopped a full house or, more likely, might make a full house. Any heart would likely transform my hand into a dead draw. An offsuit king didn’t have to be good because if someone held A-J they would make a higher straight. If I made a pair, it almost certainly wouldn’t win. The negative scenario possibilities were numerable.

In short, it wasn’t much of a draw. But the pot was big and worth assuming risks for. That said, how much risk was acceptable?

Under-the-gun and feeling there was no bluff-equity in betting, I checked, looking to see what would take place and then determine a course of action utilizing that additional information. Mr. Aggressive in the BB fired a bet. Everyone called to the cuttoff preflop raiser, who raised. Two small bets to me, I thought about my alternatives. If I called, I was getting $80-$960 current, a long price. That said, along with the weakness of the draw there was also the possibility of getting reraised behind me to add to the equation.

I was incapable of quantifying the situation in my head in the time I had to make a decision. So, to simplify it, I did some rough justice. Assuming I would average around $200 drawing and also assuming I would gain an additional $600 strange if I made my hand, I gave myself the estimated price of $200-$1600…Was I over 12.5 percent to win this pot, the number that made that price-equity neutral?

Well, it depended on what my opponents holdings were, another thing very complicated to figure out exactly. If a full house was flopped, I would be drawing dead. But if nobody had flopped a full house, and no one held a ten or if no one held a flush draw, my draw would likely have a big overlay. Yes, that was unlikely though possible. And there were other negative possibilities my opponents could be holding that reduced my price further, such as if another J-9 being out there limiting my draw to a split at best. All that said, I thought the decision was close.

I called the $80, with thoughts of adding $1600 in chips to my stack. I was thrilled when there was no reraise. That fact both raised the price I was receiving from the pot in that it cost me less to draw and lowered the chances of my drawing thin or dead. I was fully aware, however, that those threats were only diminished, not eradicated.
Boom! The turn card came the K, delivering me the bottom-end straight. Not wanting it to check around to Mr. Cutoff who would likely check any hand that couldn’t beat a king, I led, having little clue of what might occur behind me.

Mr. Aggressive flat-called right behind me as did three other opponents. I felt my hand was good at this point, but was still sweating the river card big time.

The river came the 9, partially counterfeiting my straight and filling the flush. I checked, feeling almost certain that my hand was beaten. Mr. Aggressive bet and was raised. I folded and he three-bet, got called and turned over K-K. He turned a full house and trapped both me and the rest of the field on the turn when he made Kings-full.

I got lucky and saved some chips when the heart came, as I was totally dead when I made the straight. That said, since I put in $160 very equity-poor into the pot, I retrospectively questioned my decisions. Should I have read the situation better and folded on the flop?

In retrospect, calling or folding the flop was close. I just ran into a bad situation in that my opponents’ holdings placed my hand in trouble. Since other holdings logically within their range would give me better possibilities, the blended expectation of all plausible scenarios made drawing a much equity- closer proposition than it had appeared to me.

Straight draws are tough hands to play and it’s tough to assess their value. Sixty percent of the time a flush draw is present. Pairs on the flop also diminish the draw’s value in varying degrees, depending upon the propensity of your opponents to have flopped trips or better. Straight draws that include overcards are generally more valuable than those without. Another important issue is the likelihood of a tie, common in one card straight draws.

When you have a straight draw, assess the price the pot is laying you and think about how you should extend those odds to incorporate the chances that you can make your straight and still lose. You’ll never be 100 percent accurate in your assessment, but understanding that concept will produce better decisions. And the better your decisions, the more likely you’ll get the dough! ♠

Roy Cooke played poker professionally for 16 years prior to becoming a successful Las Vegas Real Estate Broker/Salesman in 1989. Should you wish to any information about Real Estate matters-including purchase, sale or mortgage his office number is 702-396-6575 or Roy’s e-mail is [email protected]. His website is www.roycooke.com. You can also find him on Facebook.