Raising Weak

Conventional wisdom states that solid play of solid cards gets the money. And the conventional wisdom is typically correct as long as your opponents are playing excessively loose. It’s not all that intellectually demanding to play limit poker at a solid level. At that level, poker becomes mostly a contest of set strategies, patience, emotional stability and discipline. But as you move up into tougher games, most of your opponents understand solid strategies and have developed counter-strategies to exploit those strategies. If you’re playing tough games, you must expand your own game to include creative plays designed to counter the counter-strategies. That’s where you’ll acquire a lot of your edge.

Deep into a $40-80 limit hold’em session at Bellagio, I peered down at the 9 8 on the button. One loose-passive player was the only caller. Sometimes I raise with suited connectors in short-handed situations when I feel the value of aggression is high. But in this particular case the value of aggression was low since I had a loose-passive opponent who was likely to check/call with a wide range of hands. That made him both a tough read and poor opponent for aggressive play. I chose to only call, looking to make a hand and get it paid off. Mr. Loose-Passive was highly likely to pay off.

The small blind, Brent, a local pro, limped along. The BB checked and we took the flop 4-handed for $40 each, $160 in the pot.

The dealer flopped the A 3 2, presenting me with a nine-high flush draw. When it was checked to me, I bet, representing an ace and hoping to pick up the pot right there. Even if my wager didn’t win the pot immediately, it still had value as far as making the pot bigger and causing my opponents to misread my hand, both currently and in the future. Both Brent and the BB called, and the limper folded.

The turn card came the 8, giving me a pair of eights with my four-flush. Brent checked, and to my surprise, Mr. BB fired.

I pondered Mr. BB’s hand range and wondered “What does Brent hold?” I concluded Mr. BB held either 8-2, 8-3, a bad ace or had picked up a club draw, likely with a gutshot or small pair. I thought he would check-raise had he made aces and eights, and if he held A-8, would likely have check-raised the flop, further reducing his propensity to possess that holding. I felt there was a small chance he had flopped a monster and slowplayed it, but I really didn’t read him for that play.

Brent’s range was also wide. While Brent is usually highly aggressive, in this session he was playing much more passively than usual. Brent’s a player I always have a tough time reading. He just changes it up so often and has such wide variances in his hand and play selection that he is tough to put on a small range of hands. I thought it unlikely he held an ace as his generally aggressive nature would make him check-raise the flop. That said, with the way Brent mixes it up, I couldn’t be positive he didn’t have one.
I decided to raise the turn. I was apt to pay off the river anyway if a club didn’t come and I might be able to fold a better hand from either Mr. BB or Brent. Also, I might make the best hand if I was beat. I felt the combination of plausible circumstances made raising the correct play.

Brent folded and Mr. BB called. The river came the Q, Mr. BB checked and I knuckled behind him. He turned over eights and deuces and I tossed my hand into the muck.

Reflecting on my play, I rethought my turn raise. Brent’s holding was a huge issue regarding the appropriateness of the raise, and I asked Brent what he held. He told me wired jacks. I was surprised by his holding. That said, I have been surprised many times before by Brent’s holdings, both positively and negatively. Never knowing for sure where Brent is at is a major part of what makes it tough to make accurate decisions against him.

But the fact that Brent folded the jacks gave my raise better equity. Now, if an ace came I would win the pot, or, if a three came I would split rather than lose to Brent. Also, if Mr. BB held a draw, something well within his range, I would win if he missed. Of course that assumes Brent would have called the turn with jacks, something I am unsure of. Besides, the raise may not have cost me anything since I may have called a river bet.

Additionally, I question the correctness of Brent’s flat calling pre-flop with jacks even though he was out of position. While I know that it was a variance play for him, and he usually raises in that spot, I think it was a poor situation to make that play. Since he had a loose-passive player upfront and myself, a standardly aggressive player with position flat calling, it was highly likely that one or both of us held undercards to his jacks. And the equity value of raising in that spot is significantly higher if your opponent(s) hold undercards to your pair. While he was successful in misleading his opponents about the strength of his holding, he gave up too much in equity to achieve that goal. And for the play to be correct, that equity needs to be made up somehow. But that’s poker, even the best of players don’t always get it right all the time.

Did I make the right play by raising the turn? I still don’t know for sure. Like many poker situations, it depends on the accuracy of my read of my opponents’ hand ranges. And I ain’t always right either! That said, whether I made the right play always appears more questionable when my opponent is stacking my chips. Though, deep down, I know enough about poker to know that is irrelevant to whether I made the correct play. But, it’s definitely not irrelevant to my chip stack! ♠

Roy Cooke played poker professionally for 16 years prior to becoming a successful Las Vegas real-estate broker/salesman in 1989. Should you wish to get any information about real-estate matters — including purchase, sale, or mortgage — his office number is (702) 396-6575, and his e-mail address is [email protected]. His website is www.roycooke.com. You also may find him on Facebook.