What It Depends On

The most common answer to any strategic poker question is, “It depends.” While this answer is usually correct, it is not very useful. In this column I want to give you some idea of what it depends on. Someone recently started to ask me a poker question. He began, “There is a raise and a call to you in the big blind, and you have…” “Stop,” I interrupted, “start at the beginning.” He looked blank.

Before the hand is dealt you should know exactly what game it is, cash or tournament? What are the blinds? Are there antes? How many are at the table? If it is a tournament, are we close to the bubble or a big pay jump? You should also know your stack size in big blinds or M (antes plus blinds). Let’s say you have 200 BB in your stack? What is your image or how does the table perceive you-weak, tight, aggressive, etcetera? Let’s say you haven’t been involved in many hands, and the one hand you showed down was the nuts.

You should know your position. Usually the most useful measure is seats away from the button. In a 9-handed game, the big blind is -7, since your position is seven seats worse than that of the button. I hope everyone avoids looking at their cards until it is their turn to act. There are two reasons for this. First, you can’t reveal anything about your hand because you don’t know it yet. Second, you can focus on your opponents and not on your cards.

Now the cards are being dealt, and you are watching your opponents to see if anything happens that allows you to draw some inferences about their hands. The player to your left raises. Let’s call this under the gun raiser Al. Everyone folds to the button, who calls. Let’s call him Bob. Your job should be to figure out everything you can about the situation and the opponents, Al and Bob. Here are some of the things that you might consider. I have included one possible set of answers in parenthesis.

Start with Al:

Al’s stack size (100 BB).
The size of his raise (3.5 BB).
How does he play from early position (loose, aggressive).
His recent history (hasn’t played many hands, about even).
Possible Tells (slapped down bet forcefully and said, “I raise.”).
What is his probable range? (top 10 percent of hands).
How does Al perceive you (he thinks you’re tight).

Next Bob:

Stack Size (40 BB).
How does he play button (loose).
His recent history (just lost a big pot and seems aggravated).
Possible tells (called casually – didn’t appear to think about raising).
What is his probable range? (Very wide, but doesn’t have re-raising hand).
How does Bob perceive you (he thinks you’re tight).

Note that at this point you still haven’t looked at your hand. You might consider making a squeeze raise to 13.5 BB. You can make this bluff with any two cards. Al will probably fold anything except aces, kings and A-K, fearing that you have a big pair. It is hard to imagine a hand with which Bob will call almost one-third of remaining stack. Even if he is completely steaming and decides you might be bluffing, it is hard to find a call with a hand like J-T or 8-7 suited, with his relatively short stack and a hand that could easily be dominated.

Now you look at your hand and find Q-J suited. As the above analysis indicates, the squeeze raise is certainly a good alternative. The other sensible choice would be to flat call the raise. There is no danger of a re-raise, since you are last to act, and you might catch a big flop. Without actually being at the table, I can’t say which I would choose, but I feel that I would probably raise one-third of the time and call the rest. If Al’s initial raise came from a later position, where he might have a wider range, then I would probably raise more and call less. If my stack was only 20BB instead of 200, I would probably fold or shove.

The actual hand and the actual play are unimportant. Also remember that this column only examined the preflop play of this hand. The crucial thing is to grasp how much you should try to incorporate into your thinking. When you have a decision, even a relatively straightforward one like this, you should start considering all your alternatives. Realize that the best choice will depend on a lot of factors. ♠

Steve “Zee” Zolotow, aka The Bald Eagle, is a successful games player. He currently devotes most of his time to poker. When escaping from poker, he hangs out in his bars on Avenue A — Nice Guy Eddie’s at Houston and Doc Holliday’s at 9th Street — in New York City.