Playing Draws

Many players struggle to introduce more aggression into their games. Even if they know that they ought to bet and raise more often, find new spots to bluff, and win more pots without showdown, they often do not know how. Misguided attempts at bluffing produce expensive mistakes, discouraging these players and convincing them to go back to their passive ways, which if not successful are at least less unsuccessful than failed bluffs.

To those who have struggled to adopt a more aggressive playstyle, this article suggests a shift in how you think about draws. Instead of thinking of your draws as potential value betting hands that haven’t yet developed, think of them as the best possible bluffing hands. In other words, your primary goal when you hold a draw should not generally be to make your hand and then get paid off.

Your primary goal should be to bet or raise and win the pot without showdown. The possibility of completing the draw is merely a consolation prize should your bluff fail. This simple but powerful shift in thinking should naturally lead to more aggressive play, as you simultaneously eliminate a whole class of hands which you previously played passively and begin taking advantage of many new opportunities to bet and raise.

Suppose that you are playing a $2-$5 no-limit hold ‘em game with effective stacks of $500. You hold 7 6 on the button. The player to your right opens with a raise to $15, you call, and the blinds fold.

To the extent that one can have a draw preflop, that’s what you’ve got. Your six-high is extremely unlikely to be the best hand right now, so to win this pot you’re going to need either some improvement or a well-timed bluff. Unless your opponent is some sort of mega-fish, the rare occasions on which you showdown two pair or better are not going to yield enough profit to make up for the money you lose when you miss the flop and fold away your $15 pre-flop investment, let alone the larger sums you lose chasing draws to the river and then folding when you don’t improve.

Your strong postflop hands will be an important part of your overall profit from this preflop call, but they can’t do it alone. To come out ahead, you must also steal some pots when you are behind. In fact, I would generally prefer to reraise rather than call preflop with this hand if you’re going to play it, giving yourself a chance to win immediately without showdown, but calling is fine as long as you’re willing to make moves after the flop.

The flop comes A 9 3, and your opponent bets $30 into the $45 pot. Now you’ve got a proper draw, but what to do with it? You need a plan, not just for the current street, but for likely turn and river scenarios as well. You need to know where your profit will come from in the hand.

Simply hoping to make your draw isn’t good enough. You have nine outs, giving you a one-in-five chance of making a flush on the turn. Your draw isn’t to the nuts, so occasionally you will get there only to lose a big pot. Even if a diamond does make you the best hand, it will also make for a scary board that will hurt your chances of getting paid off.

That’s assuming your opponent has a hand that would even consider paying off a big bet or two, which is far from a guarantee. After all, he has merely raised from late position and made a continuation bet on a relatively innocuous flop. What is a guarantee (well, very nearly a guarantee) is that whatever he has can beat six-high. Thus, your primary objective should be to win without showdown. The possibility of making a flush is more like a safety net that lessens your risk should your bluff fail.

That doesn’t mean you have to raise now – in fact I would advise against it – but you need to be thinking about how you will take the pot away. On this board it’s difficult to represent a strong hand by raising, so I prefer calling with the intention of taking the pot on the turn. If your opponent has nothing (which, remember, will still most likely be better than your nothing), he may simply check and fold the turn.

You call, and the turn is the 10. Your opponent checks. This is not the time to check behind. You’ve picked up some new outs, so it would be nice to see the river, but remember that completing a draw is not your primary objective. Even with 12 outs, you’ll get there about one-fourth of the time on the river, and often you’ll win little or nothing more with your made hand. Much better to take the pot now, if you can.

You bet $60 into the $105 pot. Your opponent raises to $250, leaving $205 in the effective stacks, and you get the distinct sense that he likes his hand very much. What now?

Your chances of winning without a showdown are approaching zero, so it’s time to fold. Although you have 12 outs to improve to a straight or flush, you still have no draws to the nuts. Even if we make some generous assumptions, you can’t show a profit with drawing alone. For simplicity’s sake, let’s estimate your expectation by assuming that 11 cards will give you the best hand and the rest of your opponent’s stack, but the 8 will cost you your stack when you make a straight and lose to a flush.

Two percent of the time, you’ll get coolered and lose $345. The 76 percent of the time that you miss your draw, you’ll fold the river and lose $140. The 22 percent of the time that you win the pot, you’ll pocket $620. That amounts to .22 ($620) – .02 ($345) – .76 ($140) = -$20.1, an overall loss of about $20 in expected value from that strategy.

You had good reason to think that your opponent was giving up on the turn, but this time you seem to have gotten unlucky and run into a strong hand. That doesn’t make your bet a mistake: it’s still preferable to checking behind, missing on the river, and losing at showdown to something silly like jack-high. This is where the shift in thinking comes in. Instead of saying to yourself, “I’ve got a nice draw, it would be a shame to get blown off of it, I’m going to take a free card,” you ought to say, “This is a great bluffing opportunity and I’ve got a lot of equity even if I’m called, so I’m going to try to steal the pot.”

There are plenty of exceptions involving some combination of juicy pot odds, extremely loose opponents, and high-equity draws, but the general rule remains: it’s difficult to show a profit by drawing alone. In most cases, the playability of a draw is directly correlated to your chances of winning the pot unimproved, and that should be your first priority. Practice playing your draws aggressively when you can, and treat any made hands that may come along as icing on the cake rather than the main course. You’ll soon find yourself playing more aggressively, winning more pots without showdown and losing less – thanks to the not-so-occasional suckout – when your opponents refuse to fold. ♠

Andrew Brokos is a professional poker player, writer and coach. He’s a member of Poker Stars Team Online and blogs about poker strategy on ThinkingPoker.net. Andrew is also interested in education reform and founded an after-school debate program for urban youth.