The Flop Stunk...But It Still Might Have Won!

Play of hands on the flop creates some of the toughest decisions in limit hold’em. The permutations are infinite, with position, player composition, opponents’ hand ranges, emotional factors, pot size, odds, and the cards on the flop all creating a soup of factors that needs to be intellectually digested in order to formulate the correct decision. Even highly experienced, knowledgeable players have severe problems analyzing all the circumstances. It’s what makes this game so much fun!

Playing $40-80 limit hold’em at the Bellagio, I folded UTG. Right behind me, “Slinging Steve Schlesinger”, a New York attorney extraordinaire and regular visitor to the game, flashed me the K K and hit it a lick. Another tourist called the $80 cold, and Marv, a good friend of Steve’s who seeks every plausible opportunity to suck out on his buddy, slid in eight chips in the cutoff position. A fast action player called on the button and a talented Las Vegas pro made it three-bets in the SB, folding the BB. Steve rehit it, the callers called and Mr. Talented-Pro capped it at five-bets, five players at $200 apiece. It was going to be a big one!

The flop came the 10 9 8, a problematic flop for a big wired pair without a straight draw. Mr. Talented-Pro fired into the field. Steve, reading Mr. Talented-Pro for A-A, flat called the bet looking to pick off a king. The middle caller folded, Marv raised and was reraised by Mr. Fast-Action. Mr. Talented-Pro folded. Steve pondered for a while on what to do with his two kings and tossed his hand into the muck. He looked at me for a sign of approval. Unsure, I mulled over his decision.

The hand had many unique features, with many dark clouds hovering over Steve’s kings. If someone had flopped a straight, Steve was drawing mighty slim. If someone flopped a set, he basically had a just a two-outer. If someone had a pair and a straight draw, Steve would be a slight favorite over the individual hand. And if someone had flopped two pair, he would be about a 7-to-3 dog. And, of course, Steve had two opponents possessing raising hands, so the combinations of plausible ranges increased Steve’s assumption of risk considerably.

Had Mr. Talented-Pro called, the hand would be an easy muck since A-A would be such a dominant part of his range. And while Steve’s risks were huge, the potential reward was also great, as this pot currently contained $1320. And it was only going to get larger.

In these situations I define the problem the best that I can, knowing that it takes some rough justice “best guess” estimates. What is my assumption of risk and what is my potential reward from the “point of decision?” If Steve called and there was no more raising, he might get to the river for $160, or possibly less in the unlikely event the turn was checked. That said, the action didn’t have to slow down and the cost could be much higher. And there was also the issue of how the river might play. That said, the cost could also be decreased if Steve was prepared to fold if the action got heavier and his opponents indicated that they were towards the top of their ranges.

Doing a “blended estimate” of the cost at $200 and assuming that if Steve won additional strange money would go into the pot, I estimated the effective price of the play to be approximately $200 to win $1600. Was Steve’s hand a better or worse than 8-to-1 dog to bring home the bacon?

Well that depends on what his opponents held. If Mr. Fast-Action would raise only with a straight, calling would be suicidal. But the texture of Steve’s opponents was such that they didn’t have to have huge hands. With Marv’s propensity to attack Steve with anything marginal or better, and with Mr. Fast-Actions raising range on the button being an incredibly wide range of hands, K-K could very well be the best hand at the moment. Even if it was though, it would have to precariously fade the turn and the river. While I can reason scenarios in which Steve was in terrible shape, I could also contemplate scenarios in which he was getting a big overlay.

Although I think it is a close call, I believe Steve made an error in folding the flop. The substantial price the pot was laying gave Steve an overlay in spite of the fact he was a significant underdog to win the pot. The hand played out with a four and a five coming on the turn and the river. Marv held J-9 offsuit, having flopped a pair of nines, and Mr. Fast-Action had called a raise preflop on the button with 6-7 offsuit, flopped the bottom end of the straight, and ended up winning the monster pot.

The hand speaks to the difficulties in reading limit hold’em situations and computing your chances against multiple opponents, particularly those who can have a wide range of hands. That said, you need to calculate your best estimates in order to acquire a better feel of limit hold’em situations. That way when difficult situations present themselves, you’ll have mental references to similar situations and not just make snap decisions.

The fact that Steve would have lost more money had he called doesn’t make his decision to fold correct. The price he was receiving from the size of the pot meant that he had to win only about one time in nine for the circumstances to be “neutral.” All poker decisions must be examined in retrospect from the information available at the “point of decision,” taking into account odds and pricing, not scrutinized in hindsight by how the hand actually played forward.

Of course, “Slinging Steve” just gave me a wry smile when Mr. Fast-Action turned over his straight. I know I’ll never be able to convince him he should have called! ♠

Roy Cooke played poker professionally for 16 years prior to becoming a successful Las Vegas Real Estate Broker/Salesman in 1989. Should you wish to any information about Real Estate matters-including purchase, sale or mortgage his office number is 702-396-6575 or Roy’s e-mail is [email protected]. His website is www.roycooke.com. You can also find him on Facebook.