Sometimes You’re Just Guessing

Many poker games consist of the same group of regulars. Once you have them figured, few strategy adjustments are required. But when poker is played in resort destinations like Las Vegas or Atlantic City, players are constantly faced with making tough judgments about players they have never played with before. And the lower the information level you have about your opponents, the more likely you are to make mistakes.

I was spinning my wheels all afternoon playing $40-80 limit hold’em at the Bellagio. I hadn’t had a rush and nothing extraordinarily bad had occurred. I was winning a couple of hundred when a fellow I had never seen before replaced one of the local regulars. Wearing a tie, abnormal attire for most pros, plus grandstanding that he was a high no-limit player made me think the table was going to like his action. He also condescendingly announced that “limit is like craps,” an erroneous attitude limit hold’em players like to hear from their opponents. All that said, deception is part of poker, lots of players are masters of it. In poker, as in life, I don’t take much stock in the image people intentionally project; instead I judge them on the intent of their actions. Of course, you have to be able to read their intent, which can frequently be quite difficult.

Whenever unfamiliar players sit down, I focus on their actions, aware that many players attempt to create false first impressions. I observe their familiarity with chips and cards which often shows their experience level, though not necessarily their knowledge level. Also of note is their level of focus. But, while helpful, those insights can only go so far.

Mr. Tie played two of his first four hands and played them aggressively. He won one unshown and folded the other, so I got little information regarding his hand selection. Was Mr. Tie dealt a couple of playable hands early? Or was it because his starting hand range was exceptionally wide? I didn’t know.

In the fifth hand he played, he open raised in middle position, folding everyone to me on the button. I looked down to the 7 7. I took an aggressive line and three-bet Mr. Tie. Both blinds called, and Mr. Tie four-bet. We all called. I was unsure of where I was at in the hand against either the blinds or Mr. Tie.

The flop came the 6 4 3 giving me a gutshot-straight flush draw and an overpair, albeit neither the overpair or the 7 flush card were of premium value. The blinds checked to Mr. Tie who fired.

I was in a tough spot. Mr. Tie could have an overpair or a higher spade, or, worse yet, both. He may have even flopped a flush, though that was a small part of his range. The blinds, whom I had little information about, could have any number of hands, many of which would dominate either my pair or my draw.

But this pot had $680 in it currently, big enough that it made it worth taking a significant assumption of risk to fight for. While the risks were high, the reward was great also. I thought about my best play. I didn’t want to let one of the blinds call with a hand like a medium pair or middle spade that might fold to a raise. I raised. I would have loved to have won the pot right there, but was nonetheless happy to fold both the blinds and have Mr. Tie just call.

The turn card came the Q. Mr. Tie checked to me and I fired again in spite of the fact I still had no clue where I was at in the hand. With a pot this large I didn’t want to give a free card to a hand that might fold and by betting the turn I felt I was less likely to face a bet on the river. Mr. Tie called.

The river came the K, and Mr. Tie led into me. I hated both the card and the bet. I couldn’t beat A-K now and intuitively didn’t like calling the bet. But the pot had $1040 in it and was laying me 13-to-1. Could I still be good? I had little clue about Mr. Tie’s tendencies or hand range. Was he a maniac that I had yet to figure out? He’d played every hand fast so far. Was his bet on the river a continuation of an aggressive mental state? I didn’t know. Yeah, a call might be a mistake, but with a pot this huge folding a winner would be a enormous mistake.

I reluctantly tossed in $80, knowing I was most likely throwing the last bet away, but not wanting to make a critical mistake that cost me the whole pot. Mr. Tie turned over two red aces. I pitched my hand into the muck questioning my own play of the hand.

The hand speaks to not knowing your opponents’ tendencies. Having little clue where I was at in the hand caused me to take extra risks. And while the risks on the flop decision proved to be well worthwhile as I had 14 wins over my opponent’s holding, my choice of play might very well have trapped me into a negative expected value (EV) situation had the blinds or Mr. Tie possessed different hands. And my river decision I still question, although when I am unsure where I am at in large pots, I tend to pay off very liberally.

While it’s never an exact issue, it’s important to have as much information as possible when choosing a line of play. Focusing on new players’ tendencies and determining what is real, and what is faked should be part of your poker methodology. If it isn’t, you’re just going to make some tough decisions tougher! ♠

Roy Cooke played poker professionally for 16 years prior to becoming a successful Las Vegas Real Estate Broker/Salesman in 1989. Should you wish to any information about Real Estate matters-including purchase, sale or mortgage his office number is 702-396-6575 or Roy’s e-mail is [email protected]. His website is www.roycooke.com. You can also find him on Facebook.