Ready Or Not, Online Poker Is Coming

If all the promises come true, we will have legal online poker in the United States by the end of 2012. Specifically, Nevada has legalized online poker on an intrastate basis (exclusively for residents of and visitors to the state), and the first real money sites have promised to open within a few months.

I’ve found many live players to be thoroughly skeptical of online poker. If you fall into this camp, and you are less than enthused about online poker 2.0 here in the USA, please allow me to encourage you to give the new online poker a shot.

It’s Not Rigged

I’ve heard surprisingly often from live players that they think online poker is rigged. That the international online sites — both big and small — alter the deal to try to achieve some nefarious end. I can assure you, there exists absolutely no evidence that any major international poker site has rigged the deal, and there are billions of hand histories out there available to look through for problems.

Even if you remain skeptical of the international sites, the new sites based in Nevada will be overseen by the Nevada Gaming Commission, the same organization that ensures that all games in Nevada are fair. I have absolutely no concerns whatsoever that Nevada online poker will be unfair. In fact, it will likely be a whole lot easier to rig a physical deck of cards in Nevada than to rig the online deal.
Balances Should Be Safe

International poker sites have suffered from a series of failures where players’ account balances have been held in limbo or lost altogether. This should not be a problem in Nevada, as the sites will be run by major casino operators in the state.

Online Is Where The Money’s At

Whatever you have thought of online poker up until now, the new Nevada online poker will be a thoroughly legitimate way to play poker. The great thing about online poker is that it offers a shot at much, much bigger money than you can generate playing live.

For live no-limit hold’em players, winrates typically cap out at a little over $100 per hour. This is what an excellent player can expect to win playing the $5-$10 and $10-$20 games that run regularly in public cardrooms around the country. Yes, from time to time, there are better opportunities, and one can make more than this. But over the long haul, the only players winning well more than $100 per hour playing no-limit hold’em will be the absolutely elite players who play regularly in games where six figure swings are a regular part of the deal.

Online, there is no such cap. You can win several times that $100 per hour figure without even being an elite player. All you have to do is get a solid edge at medium stakes and then play tons of hands.

In recent years, play at the international sites has gotten tougher and tougher. This is what one would expect as good players improve their games and simultaneously add more tables. It’s still well possible to book nice winrates on these sites, but the learning curve is very steep.

When the Nevada sites open, I expect the level of play to be significantly softer than what you’d find at equivalent stakes on a site like PokerStars. It’s going to take a while for the player pool to mature, and in the early days, I expect some very easy pickings.

If you have a dream of winning big money playing poker, the legalization of online poker in Nevada could offer you the best opportunity that’s come along in a while.

Work On Your Game

There’s a simple reason why so many live players have had their suspicions about online poker. They frankly were never good enough to beat it. Good live players often win despite shaky fundamentals, relying on physical tells, table talk, and ultra-predictable opponents to make their money. These skills don’t play online. Bad live players, of course, have no shot online.

The thing is, if you’re a fairly good live player, there’s no reason you can’t also win online. You just have to put in the work.

I’d work on hand reading. The key to winning at online poker is to have a good idea of the range of hands your opponent will hold while mixing up your own play to make your ranges less readable.

Let’s say you play the following hand. It’s $1-$2 no-limit hold’em with $200 stacks. You open for $6 with Q Q, the player on the button calls, and the big blind calls.

The flop is J 7 2. The blind checks, and you bet $10 into the $19 pot. The button folds, and the blind calls.

The turn is the 6. The blind checks, you bet $24 into $39, and the blind calls.

The river is the K. The blind now bets out $69 into the $87 pot. Should you call? How likely is this bet to come from a bluff or a hand weaker than Q-Q?

Before I answer these questions, I want to present a similar hand. Same game, same preflop action. You open to $6 with Q-Q and get two calls.

The flop is J 8 2. The blind checks, you bet $10, the button folds, and the blind calls.

The turn is the 6. Check, you bet $24, and the big blind calls.

The river is the K. The blind bets out $69. Of the two hands and river bets, which is more likely to be a bluff? The first hand, or this one?

Against the vast majority of players — live or online — the river bet in the second hand is more likely to be a bluff. The key is the turn call. In the first hand, the board is J 7 2 6 on the turn. As there were few draws on the flop, and few still on the turn, most of the hands that call you on this board will be a pair of jacks or better. The only obvious hands that call both flop and turn on a draw are 10 9, 10 8, 9 8, or A 2, and these hands all made a flush.

In the second hand, the board on the turn is J 8 2 6. Now more hands can have called the turn, such as two diamonds or 10-9, that have bricked out on the river. Since it’s more likely in this hand that your opponent has ended up with nothing on the river, it’s also more likely he’s bluffing.

When online poker finally comes out in Nevada this year, plan a trip to Las Vegas and give it a shot. It could be something special. And in the meantime work on your game so that you can take full advantage. ♠

Ed’s brand new book, Playing The Player: Moving Beyond ABC Poker To Dominate Your Opponents, is available for purchase at notedpokerauthority.com. Find Ed on Facebook at facebook.com/edmillerauthor and on Twitter @EdMillerPoker.