I Think He Thunk Wrong!

When planning your strategy, think about what your opponent(s) are thinking. If your opponent thinks you are making the play you are executing, it loses much of its value. Your opponent will make the correct counter-play significantly more often than if he was unaware of your objective.

Playing $40-$80 limit hold’em at Bellagio, a local regular opened with a raise two off the button and was called by another player on the button who was a calling machine both preflop and postflop. The small blind folded, and I peered down to the A 2 in the big blind and called. We took the flop three handed, $260 in the pot.

I totally whiffed the flop which befell the 8 6 4. I checked, Mr. Raise-Opener checked behind me, as did Mr. Caller. The turn came the 8. I thought about betting as a bluff, with the possibility that I was also protecting the best hand. But I might have the best hand and it might check down anyway. If that happened, I would not have to assume the equity loss risk of betting the worst hand. Additionally, Mr. Raise-Opener would most likely call me down with a better ace and Mr. Caller would call me with a wide range of hands, possibly as little as overcards, any gutshot and he was perfectly capable of checking a small pair on the flop. Since the texture of the situation weakened my fold equity, I knuckled. It checked around again.

The river came the 3. I thought it likely I had the best hand and if I didn’t, I wasn’t going to get a better hand to fold if I bet. Both of my opponents recognize that I like to bluff frequently and both pay me off liberally. I knuckled. Mr. Raise-Opener fired out $80, and Mr. Caller folded.

I thought about Mr. Raise-Opener’s thought process, and it didn’t take much contemplation for me to toss out the $80. Mr. Raise-Opener’s hand was polarized. Either he had a monster and had slowplayed the flop and the turn, or he was bluffing. I deemed it highly doubtful he would think to bet a big ace for value on the river against two opponents whose range of calling hands included few hands he could beat. It wasn’t in his playbook to make those types of value bets, and it’s also questionable strategy unless you have a solid read that someone likely has a weaker ace. Yeah, we might call him with a weaker ace. But either of us could have checked a better hand or hit a three on the river. After I called, he turned over the K Q. I flipped my hand over, and the dealer pushed me the chips.

I thought Mr. Raise-Opener’s bet was terrible. In order for his bluff to have fold equity, someone had to fold a better hand. The pot was small, and there were few, if any hands that were better than Mr. Raise-Opener’s holding that Mr. Caller or I would fold. We would almost certainly call with any pair and any ace. If Mr. Raise-Opener won the pot with his bet, he would almost certainly have had the best hand anyway. With Mr. Raise-Opener’s bluff, there were no hands that were better than his that his opponents would fold. If he checked he could call a potential bluff from Mr. Caller for the same price and gain an extra bet.

Now if Mr. Raise-Opener held J-10, a bluff would have much more equity. With that type of hand he could expect to fold all unpaired K-x and Q-x hands.

The situation speaks to analyzing the circumstances when contemplating a bluff. What hands are within your opponents’ range that have you beat that they will fold? Is the percentage chance of them holding that range high enough that your wager has positive expected value (EV)?

Bluffing is an important component of poker. Many “experts” will tell you that your bluffs are only a means of getting action on your good hands and you should break even or lose money on them. While that can be true, there is a much better alternative. If your bluffs exploit mostly the positive EV circumstances, you’ll still place doubt in your opponents’ minds, and create positive EV for yourself. This will create an overall greater hourly expectation than the strategy of bluffing just to create an image.

That said, I do understand that, done correctly, image-creating bluff plays that have negative expectation can add future expectation to your game. But many players overplay that concept. Balancing your bluffing range to the texture of your opponents while still providing positive EV to yourself will provide the best overall expectation.

And when contemplating any type of play, think about what your opponents are thinking. And keep in mind that they do not necessarily think the same way you do. Being able to do this effectively takes lots of focus and thought. So get into your opponents’ minds, and design counter-plays to their plays. You can take your results to the bank! ♠

Roy Cooke played poker professionally for 16 years prior to becoming a successful Las Vegas Real Estate Broker/Salesman in 1989. Should you wish to any information about Real Estate matters-including purchase, sale or mortgage his office number is 702-396-6575 or Roy’s e-mail is [email protected]. His website is www.roycooke.com. You can also find him on Facebook.