Crushing Live Poker With Twitter

September 10 – Sometimes waiting for the turn to semibluff adds maximum fold equity.

There was a phrase created from one of the online tracking databases a few years ago called the “Fuzz Rule.” The Fuzz Rule stated that whenever you were raised you needed a fairly strong hand to continue on. This applied to small stakes no-limit cash games online. The creators of this rule had millions of hands from their databases as evidence. Normally, a “fairly strong hand” referred to better than one pair and the rule only applied to single-raised pots.

I think that we can take this rule and directly correlate it to small to mid-stakes live poker, with one exception. Usually when someone raises the turn or the river they have better than a one pair hand, but not always on the flop. You see, even back when Americans could easily play online poker, fundamentally the play was tougher and more sound. People realized that the best way to win big pots was to build big pots and slowplaying was not as common. This meant that, even on the flop, a hand like K K on a board of 9 7 5 was rarely good if it got raised. The difference, however, in live play, is that people still have a tendency to “trap” with their big hands. Facing a raise on the flop, one pair hands still may be good as lower level live players have a tendency to overplay certain hands. However, in these same games, if you are facing a raise on the turn or on river, one pair is rarely good.

So, how can we use this information to our advantage when evaluating how to play draws? It still baffles me how many players misconstrue the concept of semibluffing. It is simple; making a play with a draw is basically a bluff. The number one reason to do so is to get your opponent to fold – or realize what we call fold equity. Sometimes you get into a situation where you know your opponent will absolutely never fold to your raise – so why bluff then? You always want to put yourself in a spot where you have fold equity when making a play at the pot. If our opponents and we know then that most of the time one pair hands are no good on the turn after facing a raise, where is our best spot to bluff?

Now, of course many of our opponents do not think like us and may not be paying attention to anything in the game. However, I still feel like these weak players subconsciously pick up on certain things, especially if they have played for some time. Even the worst players will figure out that top pair, or even sometimes an overpair, is often no good when they get raised on the turn and they may fold a hand that they would never fold on the flop.

Let us take a look at an example. Say in a $5-$5 game with $800 effective stacks, a player under the gun raises to $25, one person calls and we call with 6 5 on the button. The flop comes out K 3 2 giving us a flush draw and a gutshot-straight draw. The under-the-gun (UTG) player bets out $70, the player in the middle folds and we call. The turn is the 6. Our opponent now leads into us for $175 and we raise to $500. The UTG player hems and haws, says “you have 4-5 huh?” and finally folds A K face up.

Even though the stacks are deep, against typical opponents at the lower stakes, it is rare that you are going to get them to fold A-K on the flop. If you continue to fire the turn, and even the river if the draws brick out, players will get themselves emotionally involved in the pot, always think that you have a missed draw and will call. This is, of course, why we should play sets fast. But by taking this alternative line of waiting for the turn to raise, we actually add maximum fold equity. Not only does this player remember from the past that one pair is rarely good when he gets raised on the turn, but we can use cards that complete other draws (like 4-5) to make our hand look even stronger. There is a detailed discussion of this concept in my podcast Deuce Plays Premium titled called “Delayed Semi-Bluffing.”

September 17 – When determining if to slowplay consider value lost now vs the ability for your opponent to make a second best hand later #crushlivepoker

I am going to preface this segment of this article by saying I HATE SLOWPLAYING. When David Tuchman and I first started broadcasting Live at The Bike back in 2005 we really did not know that much about no-limit cash games. In fact, neither of us had played at the stakes that we were broadcasting. But we did give out one important piece of information that allowed players to drastically increase their winrates – fast play big hands.

Back then, people thought that no-limit was a game of trapping. Most of the time, the only no limit experience that these new players had was in shorter stacked tournaments. These players did not understand that in cash games the stacks are almost always deeper and that getting maximum value from your hand vastly trumps trying to get someone to bluff at the pot. I have seen players take absolutely ridiculous lines trying to slowplay. One hand comes in mind from a few years ago during a $10-$20 no-limit game in Los Angeles. Both players were $5,000 deep. A few people limped in and this tighter Asian fellow made it $120 from the button. Only the big blind, who was somewhat of an action player, called. The flop came out Q J 3. Both players checked. The turn was a 10 and the big blind led out for $200. The button called. The river was the 3. The action player now bet $400 and the button raised to $1,000. The blind thought for a bit and called. The button showed pocket queens and the blind tabled pocket jacks. I could not believe it. If the button had simply breathed on the flop, all of the money would have been in. What was the button trying to accomplish this deep by checking? It is one thing if you are up against an aggressive player and you want them to bluff at the pot, but generally you will make a lot more by betting your hand and hoping that your opponent will a) call and catch up to a second best hand or b) make a move at the pot.

Some would ask why we shouldn’t check a big hand to allow someone to catch up to a second best hand? I contend that it is better to bet because you will get more action if your opponent improves on a later street. Let us say that in the above hand our opponent had J-9. The flop went check/check and now the turn is a jack instead of a ten. Our opponent bets and we just call. On the river we raise his bet and he just calls fearing pocket queens. Now conversely, let us say that we bet the flop a little small and he calls thinking that his jack might be good. Now on the turn he checks to us and we bet again. We have him. It is clear that this is a better way to get a lot of money committed.

Now you can sometimes get into a situation where you slowplay and your opponent hits a smaller set on the turn or two pair but I still maintain that once you raise later on he will go into a check/calling shell because your hand looks so strong. Specifically I would avoid checking middle set after being the preflop raiser especially if there is an ace or king on the flop. In reality, what are you trying to have your opponent hit? It is much more profitable to build a pot up against top pair than allow another card to come off that makes your opponent some other hand. You also have to be careful of what I call the negative-equity slowplay where you check a strong hand and the only action that you get from your opponent is from a card that comes that now beats you. I see this all the time when people check a hand like A-K on an A-A-7 flop. They give their opponent a free card and suddenly they have lost a ton of money to pocket threes when a trey rolls off. ♠

Want Card Player and Bart to provide analysis on a cash game hand you played? Send full hand details (blinds, stacks, street-by-street action) to @CardPlayerMedia. If we choose your hand, we’ll send you a Card Player subscription.

Follow Bart for daily strategy tips on twitter @barthanson. Check out his podcast “Deuce Plays” on DeucesCracked.com and his video training site specifically for live No Limit players—CrushLivePoker.com. He also hosts Live at the Bike every Tuesday and Friday at 10:30 pm ET at LivettheBike.com