Bet Big, Win Big

The poker book I have been working on for over a decade, my sixth poker book, is finally ready to be printed. It will be available by the end of October, 2012. The book is titled “No-Limit Hold’em Poker.” I have also given it a subtitle, “Bet Big, Win Big,” to give people an idea of the approach to poker that I advocate, and is used by a great many professional poker players from all generations. The below blurb is excerpted from the book.

This subtitle of Bet Big, Win Big was chosen because betting a large amount of chips in certain specified situations is an important element of the methods suggested here for success at no-limit hold’em poker. The rules of no-limit allow you to bet all your chips if you wish, and I will show you how and when to take full advantage of this.

There are a number of different betting styles that have enabled people to develop into excellent no-limit poker players. However, using the style of someone whom you admire on television may not work nearly as well for you. The high compression golf ball hit by Tiger Woods may not be the optimum golf ball for you. To play a highly aggressive and risky style, you have to be an excellent reader of opponents – and you also will need to handle large fluctuations in your results. The style of play promoted in this book is one that has not only been played by great players, but also is what I believe to be the most suitable style for the vast majority of people. I have used this style of play to advantage throughout my career as a professional poker player

Here are the advantages of making a big bet in relation to the pot.

(1) You are reducing the range of hands that the opponent could have, which makes the later reading of the opposing hand easier.

(2) You are changing the pot odds to make further contending of the pot by the opponent less attractive.

(3) You will be winning more money if your hand holds up.

(4) You will be putting more pressure on the opponent, which makes him easier to read by both his wagering and tells under pressure.

It is often right to overbet the pot size in order to get all-in. This may relieve you of having to make a tough decision later on, and deprives the opponent of the benefit of being able to bet if he helps. A large bet also stops an opponent from having a cheap shot at your stack.

I wanted to focus with the subtitle of my book on my general approach to the important strategy of bet sizing, one which might differ from what you have read elsewhere. We will discuss all these concepts connected with betting size in great detail later on.

I think we can all agree that the number one problem of weaker no-limit players is calling when they are better off folding. But after that, I would say the number two error of weaker players is not betting enough chips to protect their hand. It is certainly a major vice of the no-limit clients who come to me asking for help.

The typical drawing hand is nine outs (flush draw) or eight outs (straight draw). Hands with more outs than that, such as the nut-flush draw (12 outs if the ace is an out), a gutshot-straight draw plus a flush draw (12 outs), and a pair and flush draw (14 outs) are hardly ever going to fold to a pot-sized bet. But the big draws are a lot less frequent than the ordinary draws. You can often blow a straight draw or flush draw out of the pot by wagering a bet the size of the pot. Even if they call, the price they pay to stay in might be enough to make their call a bad poker play.

There is a huge difference in whether you are betting the flop or the turn. The math is obviously different when the draw has two chances to improve or only one chance. On the flop, the draw has two chances. On the turn, the draw has one chance. My advice to bet big if you decide to bet applies mainly to the turn bet, where you have a much better chance to drive out a draw. But both the draw and the main hand should be mindful that the only time the chance to hit on the flop is about as good as the turn is when the flop bet is all-in. Sure, the flop bettor has two shots at the money, but he has only paid for one shot.

The above explains why a draw is often willing to go all-in on the flop betting round; where has two chances to win. When the money is deep, I am not enthusiastic about getting all-in on a one pair hand, even aces or top pair with the maximum kicker. This is one of the reasons to not apply my philosophy of “Bet Big” on the flop betting round. I hate putting all my money into the pot on one pair, and I also hate putting a lot of money into the pot and then folding.

So with me, Bet Big is not usually a flop philosophy. It applies more appropriately to turn betting. Let’s use some math to illustrate the potency of a pot-sized bet on the turn. We will discount the river betting, as when the turn bet is all-in for one of the players in a heads-up situation. A completely live flush draw has 9 outs out of 46 cards (approximately 4-to-1 against the draw), from the perspective of a player with no cards of the flush suit trying to make an appropriately sized bet to charge the drawing hand a price. Yet the pot odds offered to the drawing hands by a pot size bet are only 2-to-1, so a call is clearly improper for the draw.

If we change the problem and give the draw sizable money to bet on the end, the implied odds when you figure in the possibilities of betting and getting paid off when hitting and being able to bluff when missing change the math considerably. Without going into the exact odds that apply using game theory, let me simply say that the call of a pot-sized bet on the turn is a reasonable decision when the implied odds of river betting come into play. That is why an overbet of the pot size to get all-in is a good play when you have the best hand and the opponent is drawing. It also shows that you should usually not be shedding tears when an opponent on a draw folds to your turn bet.

One thing you will find if you apply the idea of Bet Big is you will be able to play better because you will have a clearer idea of the opponent’s hand. You will also get drawn out on less often. Won’t this make you a lot happier? ♠

Bob Ciaffone’s new poker book, No-Limit Hold’em Poker, is due back from the printer by the end of October, 2012. This is Bob’s sixth book on poker strategy. It can be ordered from Bob for $25 by emailing him at [email protected]. Free shipping in the lower 48 states to Card Player readers. All books autographed. Bob Ciaffone is available for poker lessons.