Final Table Takedown

Alexander “Assassinato” Fitzgerald has been a professional poker player since he was 18. A large winner in cash games, SNGs and tournaments, Alex has amassed over $3,000,000 in tournament earnings alone. Alex is an instructor at PocketFivesTraining.com and you can follow his blog at Pokerheadrush.com. He currently resides in his suburban home in Costa Rica with his girlfriend and poodle.

The Hand

Key Concepts: Analyzing an opponent’s hand range street by street; Knowing your image; Bet sizing

Craig Tapscott: Set the stage for the dynamics at this final table.

Alex Fitzgerald: After two hours of playing rather snugly, I feel as if people think I have tightened up due to the magnitude of the tournament final table. So in this hand I decided to open up my game.

Villain raises to 100,000 from the button.

CT: What’s your read on the button raiser?

AF: He had raised more than 50 percent of the time it was folded around to him on the button. That is a very wide range. So I have been flatting more and trying to win on the flop versus him as opposed to taking the obvious three-bet bluff. But it’s now time to take advantage of my tight image.

Assassinato raises to 272,500 from the small blind holding K 2.

CT: Can you give me a deeper analysis of your choice to three-bet?

AF: Sure. I like the hand I’m bluffing with because I have a king blocker, which reduces the big card combinations he could possess. He also doesn’t really have a flatting range in position because he folds so much. This player tends to four-bet or fold, and we’re blocking his four-betting combinations with one of our cards.
CT: Did you take stack size into consideration?

AF: Yes. The stack size my opponent possesses also makes a three-bet here more profitable. With 39 big blinds he will need to commit at least 25 percent of chips in order to four-bet. Many players are unwilling to four-bet/fold that much of their stack, even though there are situations where it’s correct. Also, there are two shorter stacks at this final table, which may make him want to fold more.

CT: How about your three-bet sizing?

AF: I like the three-bet size because it discourages small four-bets, but also looks believable as a value raise. It’s also not so small that my opponent could flat me easily in position.

Villain calls.

Flop: 9 3 3 (pot: 632,500)

CT: Do you like this flop to continue your preflop story? And what calling range did you put him on preflop?

AF: I do like this flop. I believe he would flat with A-7 suited plus some of the time, so I give him credit for half of the combinations of A-9, A-8, and A-7 suited. With A-10 suited plus, he flats always. And he flats with K-J, Q-J, J-10, 10-9, 9-8 and 8-7 suited half the time and the same with 6-6 plus, K-J and A-10 offsuit. I assume he would four-bet J-J plus and A-K plus almost always preflop. This gives him a flatting range of about 9 percent of the hands. If you would like assistance in hand ranging this way I highly recommend the poker calculator Flopzilla. At the time, I did a rough estimate of his range in my head, but now with the luxury of more time I can put the range in myself using this very valuable tool.

CT: Any tips on how to access an opponent’s range?

AF: Well when you’re running a bluff and you’re analyzing it later you should always give your opponent a tighter range. If you can run the bluff versus the tightest range you could imagine him having then you could run the bluff versus all of his possible ranges. Versus the 9 percent calling range we’ve given our opponent he has no pair 70 percent of the time. Only 13.6 percent of the time does he have top pair or better. Thirty percent of the time he has a pair. He has a flush draw 7.27 percent of the time. Versus that weaker range, I believe a continuation bet is in order.

Assassinato bets 300,000.

AF: I am risking 300,000. There is now 932,500 in the pot. My bet needs to work 300,000/932,500 = 0.3217 or more than 32.2 percent of the time to be profitable.

CT: How did you choose this continuation bet sizing?

AF: Well, I had been making more straightforward bets in this tournament. While the difference between a 270,000-ish continuation bet and 300,000 shouldn’t be much, there is a reason people sell cars for $19,999. The number is in a different ballpark than the three-bet. It’s more socially acceptable to fold to this continuation bet. Folding to a continuation bet which was almost the size of the three-bet makes many players feel weak. So just throw in the extra 30,000 here and let them fold.

Villain calls.

CT: What range do you assign the Villain now?

AF: I think almost always he would raise a flush draw on this board so I’ll only give him a couple of flush draw combinations, let’s say the non-nut flush draws. It’s possible he’s flatting flush draws here. I think he will float me some of the time with a high card but not all that often. I do know that he does like to float in position. The more floating combinations we give him the weaker his turn range becomes, so let’s make a conservative estimate. I’ll include A-J, and A-Q, because they’re pretty hands and people don’t like folding them. He folds all K-x, Q-x, and J-x combinations. We’ll assume he’s calling 6-6, 7-7, 8-8, 10-10, and top pair always, along with slowplaying 9-9. Assuming he raise/gets it in with top pair on the flop helps me bluff the turn, because he will have more combinations of hands that can’t stand real pressure.

Turn: 7 (pot: 1,232,500)

Assassinato bets 450,000.

CT: Once again, why that bet sizing?

AF: Well this is not a large bet compared to the size of the pot, but I don’t believe it’s going to take much more of this to move him off a number of his hands. Calling the bet will leave him with fewer than a million chips. He’ll feel awful if he folded down to under a million in chips. There is a mental block involved there with many players.

CT: What do you think he’s thinking after you make this bet?

AF: My bet looks like I’m setting up a river jam. He should not feel super confident calling here to hope I check the river. It’s possible I could do it, but this a WCOOP final table. Undoubtedly his friends and family are watching, along with countless strangers on the rail. He knows how dumb he’ll look calling this turn bet to only fold the river. My bet only needs to get a fold 26.75 percent of the time in order for it to be profitable. He needs to be calling the turn, and praying I don’t shove the river.

CT: Would he continue with a float to try to take it away on the river?

AF: There’s often a real disparity between what a floating style player will call on the flop versus what they will call on the turn. They’re just calling with too many combinations that can’t stand real pressure. They make all their money off of basic players who check/fold on too many turns. Versus a balanced player their unbalanced ranges are exposed with even a small bet such as this one.

CT: And betting this turn card against his range?

AF: On this turn my opponent doesn’t have a pair 25 percent of the time. He has a hand worse than top pair 30 percent of the time. If he only folds those hands, we have a profitable turn bet. Remember, this assumes he calls with all top pairs and some flush draws. If he raises any of those hands on the flop normally this turn barrel becomes an even greater investment, because a larger percentage of his turn range is then occupied by middling pocket pairs and ace-highs.

Villain folds. Assassinato wins the pot of 1,232,500.

AF: In the actual hand my opponent tanked for a couple minutes.

CT: And what if he had called?

AF: I wasn’t done if he called. I was setting up a river jam. I like double barreling the turn that completes a flush draw quite a bit. If a player normally raises flush draws you can put a ton of pressure on them on the turn and river knowing they don’t have a flush. The situation only gets better when they’re in the habit of raising medium made flushes or sets on this turn, fearing a fourth card of their suit coming on the board and severely weakening their hand. If that player calls turn I’m going to give them hell on the river, because their hand range is weighted toward top pairs holding on for dear life. ♠