Don’t Get Married to Your Hands

Many weak players value their hands merely by how they rank without considering how their hand will play in the current situation. In their narrowly focused thinking, top pair is a good hand, top two a better one, etcetera. This approach often causes them to make poor decisions and lose a lot of equity.

Good players base their evaluation on how their hand compares equity-wise to their read of their opponents’ holdings. On the river, two deuces that are good is a much better hand than a full house that isn’t. Although obvious, some players never modify their thinking to the relative approach and base their play solely on their hand ranking. Some do it even when they know they are beat. They’re the “I had to call, I had top pair” rationalizing type of player who seldom wins.

I was deep into a $40-$80 limit hold’em sit at the Bellagio. The game was wide open with lots of action. A normally tight player, who was losing heavily and on tilt, opened with a raise under-the-gun. He was called by a very loose tourist who was playing virtually every hand. Abe, a southern California car dealer who is a weekend Bellagio regular, called the raise immediately behind Mr. Loose-Tourist.

On the button I looked down to the J 10. It’s a holding I sometimes three-bet with in situations where the value of aggression is high, but that wasn’t the case here. With Mr. Tight-Tilt on tilt, Mr. Loose-Tourist in the pot and Abe, a player who knows I like to bluff, I was probably going to have to make a hand to take down this pot. I flat called.

The small blind, a solid, though inexperienced tourist, made it three-bets. I knew the small blind had to have a strong holding to three-bet in this situation. The big blind folded the others called, and we took the flop off five-handed for three-bets,$640 in the pot.

The flop came the 10 9 3, giving me top pair jack-kicker. The small blind fired and was raised by Mr. Tight-Tilt. Mr. Loose-Tourist and Abe both called the raise cold. I pondered my best play.

Well, I had top pair, though I didn’t think it was good. That said, there were some logical scenarios in which the hand might be best. Mr. SB might have an AK-AQ texture of hand and Mr. Tight-Tilt didn’t have to have a solid hand. He might be on a draw or playing Mr. SB for ace-high and raising to protect a smaller pair. And Mr. Loose-Tourist or Abe would call with a wide range of hands, particularly on a board that included both straight and flush draws.

All that said, my hand had some problems. If either Mr. SB or Mr. Tight-Tilt held an overpair or if anyone held a ten with a higher kicker I would have to improve my hand to win. With a board containing both flush and straight draws, it also seemed likely that I could improve my hand and still lose.

That said, the pot was a chubby one, currently over $900 and it would obviously get much larger. It was correctly worth assuming some risks to win. But the risks seemed to outweigh the potential reward. There were too many scenarios in which I would just get into trouble.

In spite of the fact I held top pair and the price the pot was laying me was large, I reluctantly tossed my hand into the muck. Emotionally I wanted to stack this pot. But emotions should have no basis in your poker decisions. Instead they should be based only on sound logical analysis.

Mr. SB flat called the flop raise. The turn came the 6. Mr. SB checked, and Mr. Tight-Tilt fired again, the field called.

The dealer rivered the J. “Damn,” I thought to myself, regretting my decision to fold “I would have made two pair.” The field checked to Abe who fired a bet. When he bet, I intuitively knew that jacks and tens probably weren’t any good.

Abe got called by both Mr. SB and Mr. Tight-Tilt, indicating to me that my two tens, jack kicker, wasn’t good on the flop. My read was that Mr. SB must have had an overpair to call the river and Mr. Tight-Tilt must have had a serious hand to overcall. Abe turned over the Q 8 having flopped a gutter, turned a double-gutter and made a straight when the J hit on the river. He also had my heart flush draw blocked preflop, something to always consider when playing a non ace-high flush draw preflop.

Abe was a happy guy stacking the hefty pot of over $1500. And I was a happy guy knowing that I hadn’t unnecessarily contributed more of my chips to him! Had I taken off the flop, I would have been trapped to the river and would have “crying called” the river. That $240 looked much better in my stack than Abe’s. At least, I thought so, though Abe might disagree with that!

The situation speaks to basing the evaluation of your hand on the current situation and not basing its strength exclusively on its ranked value. In this situation, I evaluated the chances that my hand was good, which were small. And I evaluated the propensity that I could improve to the best hand based on my knowledge of my opponents, the texture of the board, and the hand ranges they would play in the manner in which they had been played. That chance was small as well. Additionally, I made my decision based on that logical analysis, excluding any emotional feelings.
And making the right decision saved me both EV and $240 in real money.

So, don’t get married to your hands! ♠

Roy Cooke played poker professionally for 16 years prior to becoming a successful Las Vegas Real Estate Broker/Salesman in 1989. Should you wish to any information about Real Estate matters-including purchase, sale or mortgage his office number is 702-396-6575 or Roy’s e-mail is [email protected]. His website is www.roycooke.com. You can also find him on Facebook or follow him on Twitter @RealRoyCooke.