F.E.A.R.

There’s an acronym that comes from somewhere — recovery circles, I think — that goes Future Events Appear Real (F.E.A.R). In the real world, it reminds us that certain of our fears are phantom fears and we can dismiss them. In a poker context, it reminds us to use our foes’ fears against them. Let’s see how that works…

First, recognize that certain of your foes at certain times feel like they’re cursed. Maybe they’ve had some recent bad beats or maybe they just dwell in negativity. In any event, bad luck has afflicted them and they expect it to strike again; they live, in other words, in F.E.A.R. These foes will give you a predictive tell, a tell which lets you anticipate how they’ll react to the fall of certain cards. If all goes according to plan, your opponents’ own anxieties will win you the pot.

What you’re looking for in hold’em, for example, are super-textured flops, such as three to a straight or three to a flush, that you can “own” by playing as if you’re on that draw. For the times that the draw gets there, your chosen victim will experience a momentary lapse of reason. His judgment temporarily clouded by his fatalistic sense of “here we go again,” he won’t pause to consider that you’re betting a hand you don’t have. He’ll just see himself as damned unlucky once more, and fold his hand without a second thought. Why would he call? He put you on a draw, and, because he’s cursed, your draw got there.

You can help reinforce this set of mistaken assumptions by “betraying” yourself with a betting pattern consistent with the draw you aren’t on. Suppose you’re heads-up against one such Gloomy Gus and looking at a flop of T-9-8 rainbow. If he bets, go ahead and raise. Figure he’s got top pair, good kicker. He, meanwhile, figures you for a naked jack or a seven. You’re not actually looking to hit on the turn. You’re hoping to hit a brick and have your opponent check, so that you can check too. He’ll conclude that your raise on the flop was a foreclosure raise, and will now firmly put you on the straight draw. If the river comes queen, jack, seven or six, his own dour evaluation of your hand will put you on a straight or new top pair. Skittish as he is, he knows he’s beaten. He checks, you bet, he folds. Happy outcome. All because your foe feels snakebit and because you played the hand in a way which let him put you firmly on a holding that beats him.

If you should be “unfortunate” enough to “hit” your hand on the turn (say a jack comes), you can still carry this gambit through by checking behind your foe right there. If he checks the river, you bet; if he bets, you raise. To a player caught in the throes of F.E.A.R., your bet on the turn would have looked very much like a bluff. But checking the turn (as if to induce a bluff) and betting or raising the river is consistent with a trap, not a bluff, and that’s where your foe will put you.

Different situation, same concept: Suppose you’re in the big blind and it’s folded around to the button, who makes a standard real estate raise. A call from you here can be consistent with a medium ace. Keep this in mind, because this is the hand you want him to put you on. Now here comes a flop of 9-7-3. Not much of anything for anyone. You check, he bets, you call. What does this tell him? That you have a weak piece of the flop, something like A-3 or A-7, or maybe overcards. The turn is a 2, and nothing seems to have changed. You check. Your foe checks too, because he’s feeling star-crossed and he doesn’t want to bet again into a pot that you’ve demonstrated you won’t be bluffed off of. The river comes an ace (or even any court card) and you gleefully bet out — betraying your glee if you can. Your opponent knows there’s no point in calling… you obviously hit your hand! He’ll feel cursed that he got burned on the river (again!) but also (incorrectly) smug for making a good laydown in the face of a bad outcome.

Yes, I know he could have raised on the button with a good ace, in which case the river ace helps him more than it helps you. But many players will raise an unraised pot on the button with many non-ace hands. They figure to own any board that remains ace-free, but willingly surrender to that scary ace when it falls. The real question is: Do you know your foe’s preflop raising requirements here? And, more importantly, do you know his state of F.E.A.R.? If you have him well dialed in, you can make this move; otherwise, save it for an enemy whose tendencies you’re more sure of.

In all events, this whole class of play requires a foe you can steer. It’s not like they’re not out there; weak-minded players abound. Just make sure it’s the right kind of weak mind. You need someone who’s feeling like a loser — but not so much like a loser that he’s past the point of pain. You want him to be slackjaw enough to conclude he’s beaten, but smart enough not to play sheriff on you. It’s a fine line, but a profitable one — one you prepare for, needless to say, by studying your foes intently throughout the course of your play. Don’t just look at their betting patterns, look for the underlying psychology. Find out who lives in F.E.A.R. and then use their fear to steal pots. ♠

John Vorhaus is author of the Killer Poker series and co-author of Decide to Play Great Poker, plus many mystery novels including World Series of Murder, available exclusively on Kindle. He tweets for no apparent reason @TrueFactBarFact and secretly controls the world from johnvorhaus.com.