I Thought He Thunk That!

Poker requires much deeper thinking than just the mathematics of the game. You must also correctly read how the hand will play out based on your opponents’ tendencies and the texture of the situation, then correctly adjust your strategies based on that read. While nobody does this perfectly, some do it better than others. If you want to do this well, you must be aware of your opponents’ tendencies and knowledge level.

I was having a good day in my $40-80 limit hold’em session, up a bunch. Two off the button, a loose-passive tourist open-limped. On the button, I peeked down to the Q 9. Against a passive limper and owning the button, it was an easy call. I tossed in $40.

Mike Souchak, a personal friend and an excellent player, called in the LB. The BB knuckled and we took the flop four-handed.

I flopped a big one, the 10 8 6, giving me a double gutter, a queen-high flush draw and an overcard. Mike checked, the big blind fired and Mr. Passive-Limper raised. I pondered reraising, Maybe they would call the three-bets? Maybe I could take a free one if I missed? But reraising might also blow out Mike and the big blind, thereby reducing the price I would receive on my draw. I chose to flat-call looking to trap more players into the pot, thus increasing the price I would receive on my draw as well as providing more opponents to pay me off should I hit it.

Mike rehit it from the small blind, the big blind folded to the additional two bets, and Mr. Passive-Limper flat-called. I standardly would four-bet in this situation, but the fact that Mike was the three-bettor heavily influenced my thinking. Mike’s a good hand reader and the fact that I would trap reraise on a uniform board with a flush draw present would trigger Mike to read me for the flush draw that I had. And if he read me for the flush draw I possessed, Mike would play correctly against me on future streets. And while I really like Mike, I don’t want him playing his hands correctly against me. I flat-called.

The turn card came the 7h, giving me the straight, albeit a one card community straight. Still holding the flush draw, I loved my holding. Mike fired $80 and Mr. Passive-Limper raised it to $160. I pondered my best play.

There was currently $800 in the pot. If I flat-called, I would be giving Mike 12-1 currently on a call, long odds that made many hands correct to call. And when your opponents are correct in calling, you’ll do better equity-wise if they fold. And sometimes, when you make a trap play you just end costing yourself equity by offering an opponent a cheaper draw when they would have called the extra raise to draw regardless.

Additionally, since I held the 9, I didn’t think that Mr. Passive-Limper could hold J-9 because I believed he was a passive player and wouldn’t raise with an open-ender with a flush draw present (or for that matter when one wasn’t). Confident I was freerolling at worst, I three-bet the turn, making it $240 to go. Mike folded, and Mr. Passive-Limper flat-called.

The river blanked, the 4h. Surprisingly, Mr. Passive-Limper led into me, my first inclination that my hand might not be good. I flat-called him and he turned over the Jd9s, possessing the nut straight. I tossed my hand into the muck.

Sitting there in total confusion with egg on my face, I reflected upon my decisions in the hope of learning something from the situation. I’d read the hand and the player totally wrong: The fact that Mr. Passive-Opener raised with a naked open-ender with a flush draw present altered all my previous thoughts about the fellow. Had I known he was capable of that, would it have changed my play on the turn? I don’t think so. Since I was freerolling to the flush and his range would include many other nines, I still would have put in the raise so as to not give my friend Mike a correct call draw with a hand like two pair. Additionally, if Mike had a hand like a set or held a nine, I would have wanted the additional action from the raise.

After the session Mike kindly bought me dinner and I discussed the hand with him. He stated he had two Jacks and flat-called pre-flop, a non-standard play since a raise would standardly be in order in that spot. Undoubtedly, Mike flat-called to disguise his holding, though I question if it’s the right play in this particular situation. In my mind, since a weak-passive player had limped, and I had just called him on the button, Mike’s edge factor over our hands would likely be large. Additionally, Mike added a greater assumption of risk of having the big blind play for free when he might have folded. The combination of lost equity on pre-flop bets and the greater assumption of risk made me believe raising was a better play. That said, while I disagreed with Mike’s play in this instance, he’s not one whose decisions I differ with often. Nor when we differ am I always right.

The hand speaks to reading your opponents hands, thinking about how they will read your actions and making plays based on your read. In this case I didn’t read my opponent correctly. While I feel my read is generally true with Mr. Passive-Limper, in this instance he varied from his standard mentality, I’m not sure why. That said, I’m frequently wrong, and I don’t beat myself up about it. As long as I know my judgment was based on logical thinking, I’m ok with myself the times I am in error. Taken as a whole, the effort I make to read situations has large rewards.

In poker, I just make the best decision I can, with the best information I have available, and let the cards fall however they may. I try to keep my focus on the decisions I make, not the cards that came.

And if my decisions are wrong, I try to learn from them, leave the situation behind, and just play the next hand the best I know how! ♠

Roy Cooke played poker professionally for 16 years prior to becoming a successful Las Vegas Real Estate Broker/Salesman in 1989. Should you wish to any information about Real Estate matters-including purchase, sale or mortgage his office number is 702-396-6575 or Roy’s e-mail is [email protected]. His website is www.roycooke.com. You can also find him on Facebook or follow him on Twitter @RealRoyCooke.