Winning Poker Tournaments – Hand #44

Winning Poker Tournaments One Hand at a Time Volume III by Jon “PearlJammer” Turner, Eric “Rizen” Lynch, Jon “Apestyles” Van Fleet, and yours truly, analyzes 50 online poker hands. In Volume III, PearlJammer, Rizen, and Apestyles analyze the same hands and then I give a summary of lessons learned at the end of the hand. This article looks at hand #44.

Seat 1: (72,798 ) Big Blind Hero
Seat 2: (26,251 )
Seat 3: (83,656 )
Seat 4: (91,673 )
Seat 5: (176,309 )
Seat 6: (105,371 )
Seat 7: (194,193 )
Seat 8: (140,658 )
Seat 9: (159,396 ) Button
Seat 10: (149,695 ) Small Blind

3,000-6,000 Blinds, 100 Ante

Setup: This is a $33 rebuy tournament on a site where the antes are quite small in relation to the blinds. Despite the small antes, the structure of the tournament is quite fast.

There were 191 entrants and 20 places paid. This is the third hand at the final table. You don’t have any information on the villains in this hand, as they were all at the other table.

Preflop (10,000): Seat 8 raises to 18,000. Seat 10 pushes all-in.

What is your push range?

PearlJammer

Seat 8 raised fully three times the big blind, with 23 big blinds, and Seat 10 shoved, having him covered. My short stack of only 12 big blinds leaves me somewhat desperate, but not as desperate as I would be if the average stack were much larger, as it usually is this stage in most tournaments. The table is 10-handed, meaning everyone should be playing relatively tightly at the moment; however, the action in this hand all came from late position, so my opponents’ ranges aren’t necessarily that tight. Still, fold equity is not part of the equation, as I would be calling off my stack, and thus I must win at showdown to survive. The fact that Seat 10 shoves over a rather large raise makes me believe he is strong. With such an unusually small ante, I have more time than usual to wait for a better spot, rather than calling off with marginal hands like A-J or 7-7. My range to call off my chips in this spot would be 8-8 plus, A-Q suited plus, and A-K offsuit.

Rizen

In order to estimate a push range, I must first put my opponents on ranges of hands. With no reads, I’ll have to use position and stack sizes to try to determine ranges. Seat 8 is opening from the cutoff to three times the big blind. This could indicate a very wide range of hands that might include all pairs, all aces, any two cards ten or better, all suited connectors, and perhaps some suited gapped cards.

Seat 10, however, would have to have a narrower range. Given that the effective stacks are close to 25 big blinds and the antes are relatively small in relation to the blinds, without any reads, I’m less inclined to think this is a sort of resteal play and more likely some sort of value push. I would guess at a range like 6-6 plus , A-10 plus, and K-Q. I have 66,698 remaining after posting the big blind and ante. If I pushed, there would be a total of 164,396 in the pot. From a pure chip expected value (EV) perspective, my hand would need only 28.86 percent equity (66,698/164,396) to break even

This assumes that I am only up against Seat 10 though, while sometimes I will be up against Seat 8 as well. In those instances, there will be more in the pot to win, but my equity will also significantly diminish. I also have to factor in that there is more at stake than just chip equity. If I call and lose, I am out of the tournament, while currently I have enough chips in my stack to maintain fold equity. I am at the final table, so even though I don’t have the payout structure in front of me, the payout jumps should be increasingly significant.

Given all of those factors, I would likely only call with a range of 8-8 plus/A-J plus. Maintaining fold equity and the ability to pick up uncontested pots is key. If I were dealing purely in chip equity, I would call with a much wider range, but this is one of those instances in which preserving my seat and my fold equity takes priority.

Apestyles

I am second to last in chips at a 10-handed final table. My call/all-in range should be really tight in this situation. I would call with A-K and J-J plus (maybe 10-10). My reasons for having such a tight range with such a short stack are:

1. There is a player under-the-gun with less than 4.5 big blinds who will probably bust out soon.

2. The opener has raised three times the big blind, which often indicates a tighter range than a much smaller raise would.

3. Seat 10 has gone all in, over-the-top for 25 big blinds and isn’t likely to make this play with weak hands, especially facing a large opening raise.

Matthew

In tournaments, there are factors that come into play other than straight chip equity. PearlJammer notes that the antes are small, so he has longer than usual to wait for better spots. Rizen notes that he still has fold equity at a final table, so he is less inclined to call off all his chips, risking his tournament life. Apestyles notes that another player is likely to bust soon, allowing him to move up another spot in the payouts. Chip equity is important, but deep in tournaments, there are many factors to consider that might make you forgo a positive chip EV situation. Likewise, there are some scenarios where certain factors may lead you to take a risk in a negative chip EV situation.

In the actual hand, the hero held A Q and folded, as did the initial raiser. ♠

Matthew is the owner of Dimat Enterprises, which just released Winning Poker Tournaments One Hand at a Time Volume III available at pokerbooks.InternetTexasHoldem.com in both print and e-book format.