I Could Have Robbed Him

“You missed a bet” needled my condescending neighbor. He’s right to a degree; had I bet I would have won the pot. But it wasn’t the right play. And making the right play is what counts over time in poker, not whether a play would have worked in the current situation.

I was playing $40-$80 limit hold’em at the Bellagio. A weak-loose tourist opened the pot in middle position and the field folded to me in the small blind (SB) holding the Q 10. Sometimes I raise in this spot with the intent of folding the big blind (BB), thereby increasing my value of aggression both by showing strength and limiting the number of opponents. Raising in that spot adds value in other ways also. But in this particular situation, because Mr. Weak-Loose is a habitual caller and going to pick off many of my bluffs, raising loses much of its value. I tossed in $20 to call, the weak-tight player in the BB knuckled. We took the flop three-handed.

The flop came the 8 8 3, not a flop that hits many preflop holdings. But even poor players understand that, and how you play these low-medium paired boards is mostly a function of how you think your opponents will react. In this case, I was concerned that Mr. Weak-Loose would call a flop bet with any two cards, forcing me to bet it twice to bluff while having no read on his hand. I chose to check, leaving all options open as to how to play should someone bet. Nobody did!

The turn came the J; now there’s a good card that’s a game changer. I’d picked up a gutshot straight-flush draw, plus making a pair was liable to be a winner too. Now betting as a semibluff was a much stronger option. Not only does the turn bet double, making my opponents more likely to fold, but even if I’m called or raised, I likely still have adequate equity in the pot. I fired $80 into the $120 pot, praying to take it right there.

So much for my prayers; the BB folded and Mr. Weak-Loose called. I had no clue what he held. He might have slowplayed an 8, picked up a straight or flush draw, have a 3, or be calling with an ace. All were viable possibilities. All in all, I would have rather taken the $120 already in the pot than picked up the call, despite having a huge draw
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The river came the J, depositing two pair on the board. I contemplated my state of affairs. Mr. Weak-Loose wouldn’t fold an 8 and would raise with any jack. Furthermore, I knew Mr. Weak-Loose believes I have larceny in my heart, which of course I do, but only when I can get away with it. That being the case, he would call the river with any ace. The only hands he might fold to a bet in which I couldn’t beat anyway was a king-high flush draw. Yeah, he would fold a queen too, but that would mean he called a large bet on the turn with a gutshot with the board paired in a small pot. I felt it was unlikely that even he would make that call. I also understood that betting would stop him from bluffing the river, but being of weak texture, he didn’t bluff much.

So, with the thought that I could fold only the king-high flush draw, I checked. “King,” my opponent announced and turned over the K 2. “That’s good,” I proclaimed while shaking my head. I tossed my hand into the muck.

Yeah, I didn’t win the pot, and I could have had I bet. But my play was correct; king-high was a small part of his potential hand range, not enough to make a bluff at 3.5-to-1 odds the correct play.

The hand speaks to analyzing the odds of a bluff succeeding against an opponent(s) hand range and the size of the pot. What portion of your opponent’s range that beats you will he fold? If it’s none, your bluff is terrible. I often see players bluffing at situations in last position with hands in which their opponent will call them with any better hand than the bluffer currently holds. That bet has zero equity. In order for your bluff to have any “fold-equity,” he must be capable of folding hands that beat yours. The only exception is situations in which your opponent(s) will bluff you should you check and you can’t call. If betting as a bluff stops your opponent from bluffing, that additional value needs to be inserted into your equation.

I understand it’s virtually impossible to calculate these situations exactly; at least it’s way more complicated than my poor little brain can handle. But understanding these issues conceptually is going to make your bluffing decisions better. Ask yourself, which hands might your opponent(s) hold that beat yours but would fold to a bet? What percent of their potential hand range does this represent? How does the percent of his range he may fold compare to the price the pot is laying you? Is the bluff an overlay?
And if the situation is right, let the larceny in your heart emerge! ♠

Roy Cooke played poker professionally for 16 years prior to becoming a successful Las Vegas Real Estate Broker/Salesman in 1989. Should you wish to any information about Real Estate matters-including purchase, sale or mortgage his office number is 702-396-6575 or Roy’s e-mail is [email protected]. His website is www.roycooke.com. You can also find him on Facebook or Twitter @RealRoyCooke.