When The Best Defense Is A Good Offense

I have learned much in my life through observation. When observing poker, I evaluate how my opponents think and feel. And while there is always something to be learned from everyone, the best strategy lessons come from watching good players. I try to learn from their wisdom and by unearthing their errors. Even the best make mistakes and when you find their weaknesses, analyze them for tactics to exploit them.

It was Cinco de Mayo weekend and Las Vegas was “totally hoppin’.” The $40-$80 limit hold’em game contained a mixture of local pros and tourists. A tourist, sipping his umpteenth straight scotch and playing incredibly badly, open-limped upfront. He was called by two opponents; a local pro who had been losing heavily for several days, raised in the cutoff holding the A 10. The button and both blinds folded, and the field called the raise. They took the flop four handed with $380 in the pot.

After a flop of Q J 2, the field checked to Mr. Local-Pro, the preflop raiser, who held a gutshot, a flush draw, and an ace overcard. He wagered $40. Mr. Umpteenth-Scotch called, the others mucked. Heads-up to the turn, the 10 came, which gave Mr. Local-Pro a pair of tens along with his straight and flush draws and ace overcard. Mr. Umpteenth-Scotch checked, and Mr. Local-Pro knuckled behind him.

The river turned up the 3, Mr. Umpteenth-Scotch fired a wager and Mr. Local-Pro pondered for a moment and paid him off. Mr. Umpteenth-Scotch turned over the 3 3 having made a set on the river after receiving the free turn card. Mr. Local-Pro, seeking sympathy, turned over his A 10 displaying to the table the one out “bad beat” he had just suffered.

I’m not the most sympathetic guy to begin with. I feel people create much of their “luck” in life though the karma they generate. And this hand is a case in point. I didn’t comprehend why Mr. Local-Pro checked the turn and gave a free card. Mr. Umpteenth-Scotch couldn’t resist a bargain and took one off on the cheap-street flop with any draw, meaning any three-straight, any three-flush, any gutter, or any pocket pair. In short, any conceivable out. If Mr. Local-Pro had been following the game at all, he had to know this.

So why didn’t Mr. Local-Pro bet the turn? He had nothing to fear about getting played off the pot with a check-raise bluff, one good reason to check a marginal hand on the turn. He would have called the raise 100 percent of the time. Plus, Mr. Umpteenth-Scotch hadn’t check-raised all day, yet alone as a bluff. Given the potential range of his opponent’s hand for the flop call, Mr. Local-Pro’s two tens were a favorite to be good. And even if they weren’t the best hand, they weren’t much of an underdog to most of Mr. Umpteenth-Scotch’s hand range that might be ahead at that moment. And even if the worst possible scenario happened and he was check-raised, the equity loss of the wager couldn’t be too great.

Additionally, if you’re going to call the river with your hand, assuming you are not raised, the bets work out the same if you miss, and you gain a bet if you hit. In this particular scenario Mr. Local-Pro had unnecessarily given a free card in a large pot and suffered the worst possible consequence, an outcome he likely could have avoided by betting.

The hand speaks to allowing yourself to get defensive-minded when running bad. When the pot is large and you’re faced with a decision to bet or check, it’s much better to err on the side of protecting the pot over saving a bet. The times that checking costs you the pot, as it did Mr. Local-Pro in this situation, just cost you too much in bets and equity.

Of course, Mr. Local-Pro, being a highly knowledgeable player, knows all this. He had let the psychological impact of how he had been running sway his decision and shifted his priority from winning the pot to saving a bet. He got defensive-minded, and it cost him big-time. And if he keeps doing it, it will cost him even more. Aware opponents who notice this trait are going to exploit this weakness by taking one off more lightly on the flop, as they will have a greater chance to receive a free card on the turn, thereby getting a “two-for-one” price.

Yeah, Mr. Local-Pro did get unlucky to lose the pot. He still had around a 98 percent likelihood to win even after he checked. But he needlessly gave away that 2 percent equity by misplaying his hand. And even if Mr. Umpteenth-Scotch would have called the turn bet, which I doubt, Mr. Local-Pro lost the significant equity (around $78) of that $80 call by checking. And when you get defensive and check betting situations when you’re down psychologically from running bad, you’re likely to turn a bad run into a life-crippling one.

Luck happens, and it’s a huge factor both in poker and life. But you need to make the decisions that give you the best chance of success. You’ll be amazed how much luckier you will get.

And if you don’t make those beneficial decisions, good luck finding someone to listen to your bad beat stories! ♠

Roy Cooke played poker professionally for 16 years prior to becoming a successful Las Vegas Real Estate Broker/Salesman in 1989. Should you wish to any information about Real Estate matters-including purchase, sale or mortgage his office number is 702-396-6575 or Roy’s e-mail is [email protected]. His website is www.roycooke.com. You can also find him on Facebook or Twitter @RealRoyCooke.