Shut Them Out Or Let Them In?

Many poker pros overvalue aggression and nearly always try to fold their opponents, even when their opponents would be incorrect to call. It’s a fundamental of poker that you do better over time when your opponents make incorrect calls rather than fold. And your play should reflect that concept by not forcing your opponents to make correct laydowns. Of course, you need to be correct in your analysis and not assist your opponents into making correct calls. That’s frequently a massive expectation error.

It was the first weekend of March Madness, a great time for poker in Las Vegas. Both bookies and basketball fans come in droves, with many tumbling from the adjoining sports book into the poker room. We Las Vegas poker players just hate when that happens.
In a live $40-$80 limit hold’em game at the Bellagio, an upfront limper was raised by an aggressive local pro. Two players called and I peered down at the 8 8 on the button.

Medium pairs require different strategies depending on the situation. Heads-up against aggressive opponents with position it’s commonly a three-bet. You often fold the blinds and get a nice preflop price playing heads-up against someone with overcards. Of course, it’s problematic when they have a higher pair. It’s also a tough situation to play, particularly if you’re against opponents with a lot of play to them. In those circumstances you often find yourself paying off with only two outs or getting played off your hand. Neither result being much of an expectation gainer.

In other instances, when the hand is likely to play against multiple opponents, you often need to make a set to win. In these situations it’s generally better to call preflop and let in opponents who will increase the price of your “set mining,” both pre-flop and your overall implied price by providing more “customers” when you do hit your set.

Many situations fall in-between. Circumstances in which you have a raise, a caller plus two players and the blinds to act behind you require considerable judgment as to the correct play. How will your opponents act, both those that are currently in the pot and those that you may or may not let in? The permutations are innumerable and the subject for another column, but you need to think in these terms in these instances.

In this case, I was set mining, though there was another option. Since I held the button I could put in a raise with the intent of increasing my opponents propensity to check to me and allow me to attain a “free card.” The larger the pot, the greater the value of the “free card.” But one also has to evaluate the value and probability of receiving that “free card” against what it may forfeit. In the current situation, I had two weak tourists in the small blind (SB) and big blind (BB), not players I wanted to knock out of the hand, as they were the texture of opponents likely to provide unwarranted action should I flop a set. I flat called, as did both blinds. We took the flop off seven-handed for $80, a nice price for two eights on the button.

The dealer flopped the 6 2 2. The SB led and the BB raised, folding all players to me. I considered my options, I wasn’t folding, thinking that my hand could be best and the pot was offering me a large price. But with both players being weak, generally only betting their stronger hands and leading into a large field, I was suspicious of the strength of my holding. And if I was beat, I had only two outs.

Narrowing my options to calling or raising, I thought how each would play out. Since both opponents respected me, I thought if I called and the SB three-bet, I could safely get away from my hand on the turn. I also thought that if my hand was good they likely both held sixes or possibly a smaller wired pair. If they both held a six, eliminating one of them didn’t increase my chances of winning if a six came. Additionally a small wired pair only had two outs. Yes, I understand I would be giving a small wired pair the right price, but that “odds offering” was diminished by the fact that some of his range had me beat and I’d likely be saving future bets in those situations. With that in mind, I flat called.

Right after I released the chips I knew I made an error. The pot was too large to be concerned about saving a bet. When the pot gets large any increased chance of winning has high expectation and the expectation value of weak calls that aren’t drawing dead goes up.

When the BB flat called, it emphasized my thinking. I was pretty sure I had the best hand and had given my opponents a cheaper and mathematically correct opportunity to draw at me in a large pot. Something a player of my experience should have known better. The good news is that it didn’t cost me the pot. They both check-called the turn, the Q and the river, the J. I won the pot with my two eights. Albeit, I took more risk than I should have and/or possibly lost some value.

Calling when you should raise is often a big error. Not only does it improve the price your opponents are getting, but it often increases the probability of losing the pot. I know better than the play I made, I just wasn’t thinking clearly.

My playing style contains many creative and deceptive plays. Since many of my opponents are good readers, these plays often have great value by gaining me extra bets or occasionally the whole pot. That said, sometimes I get ahead of myself and try to get too fancy in situations that don’t justify it. Like I did in this situation, I make the equation too complex and make a mistake because of it. I tend to make this same conceptual error in some of my life decisions also.

The good news is that I recognized my error and learned from it. It will be a while before I get “ahead of myself” again, though I’m sure I will. Many players deny their errors and therefore never learn from them. Their games languish in mediocrity. Don’t be one of them. Diagnose and learn from your errors. ♠

Roy Cooke played poker professionally for 16 years prior to becoming a successful Las Vegas Real Estate Broker/Salesman in 1989. Should you wish to any information about Real Estate matters-including purchase, sale or mortgage his office number is 702-396-6575 or Roy’s e-mail is [email protected]. His website is www.roycooke.com. You can also find him on Facebook or follow him on Twitter @RealRoyCooke.