Dead, It’s No Place to Live Your Life

“It’s OK to draw dead as long as the pot is big enough,” goes the old saying. Of course, it’s meant to be a joke. Drawing dead is, well, it’s drawing dead; you can’t win and your bets are dead money. But even great players sometimes draw dead. And it’s often correct! Of course, it’s never correct to knowingly draw dead, but to assume some risk of drawing dead is often the right play choice. And it’s inevitable that, when you assume that risk, in some scenarios you will be drawing dead.

It was the first weekend of the WSOP, a highly lucrative time for Las Vegas poker. I was playing in an action $40-$80 limit hold’em game at Bellagio. Three players limped preflop, and the button raised. The small blind (SB) called, and I peered down to the A Q in the big blind (BB).

I contemplated whether to call or raise. Since Mr. Button’s raise was from last position, and indicated a wider range of starting hands than an upfront raise, I chose to reraise. I thought there was some possibility of players folding preflop to the two extra bets, thereby creating dead money that would remain in the pot.

Additionally, I thought raising would increase my ability to read the hand and increase my options on future streets. If I represent a hand I don’t have, it creates the option to represent it on future streets and still be credible against good hand readers.

One limper called and a stuck “tiltoid” made it four bets. I didn’t read him for a strong hand, reasoning that he was just looking to create a big pot in a desperate attempt to get even. Everyone called to Mr. Button who announced “cap it,” and slid in the last bet. We all called, taking the flop six-handed for $200 each, $1,200 in the pot.

I fell in love when the flop hit! The J 10 8. I’d flopped the nut-flush draw, a double gutter and two overcards. It was checked to me, and I fired, looking to trap the three players between myself and Mr. Button, because I thought the flop hit a large part of his hand range, making him likely to raise.

All three players called my wager and Mr. Button didn’t disappoint me. The SB folded and I three-hit it. All callers called, and Mr. Button four-bet me. I hit it again, capping it. We took the turn five-handed for $200 more each, $2,200 in the pot.

The turn card was nasty, the 8, pairing the bottom card. I was concerned that Mr. Button put in the substantial action on the flop with a set. If true, Mr. Button’s set just turned into a full house and I was drawing dead. I pondered my best play. I didn’t want to bet, get raised and put in $160 drawing dead. Additionally, I didn’t think the situation offered me any fold equity, and I would need to show the best hand to win. If, for example, by betting I eliminated a naked queen drawing to a gutshot, it might provide additional equity. But I didn’t believe any of my opponents would fold any draw in a pot this size. I checked, and it checked around to Mr. Button who pondered and bet.

Intuitively, I thought I was in trouble, but there was so much else to consider. My intuitions are not always correct, Mr. Button’s range included hands I was still drawing live to, and errors in pots this size can get very expensive equity-wise. I was currently getting $2,280-to-$80 or 28.5-to-1 to draw. I was unsure of my wins, if any, but with such a big pot and a big draw, assuming the risks of drawing dead were more than made up for if I could scoop a pot this massive even a small percentage of the time.

I tossed in $80, as did all three callers. I received $2,520-to-$80, or 31.5-to-1 odds on the call. The river came the 3, filling my flush, but I was unsure that it was any good. I thought about betting, but I didn’t want to call any raises, and I wasn’t about to fold this hand in a pot this large. I knuckled my nut-flush.

It checked around to Mr. Button who fired. Dejected with his betting after the flush hit, I lobbed in my $80 call. Another opponent called behind me, and Mr. Button turned over the 10 10 for a full house. I disenchantedly pitched my nut-flush into the muck.

Yeah, I drew dead and it cost me an extra $160 to do so. And that $160 in the current situation had zero equity — none! And it takes a lot of minimal equity bets to offset that highly negative single situation. But I don’t think I made the wrong play choice at my decision point. Could Mr. Button have had two aces or kings? Could he have a hand like 10 9 or K 10 and have “capped it for thrill” preflop and gambled on the flop? I think so! And with the price the pot was laying me, even if I was drawing dead 80 percent of the time, it was still correct to make the turn call.

The hand speaks to calculating the price the pot is laying you on your draw, while incorporating the chance that you may not win even if you make your hand, and then determining whether it’s positive expected value (EV) to proceed. In many situations, making that determination involves good hand-reading skills and the ability to do odds calculations in your head. Even those who possess those skills are usually limited to educated guesses. That said, their “best guesses” have better accuracy that those who make uneducated guesses.

Dead bets need to be avoided, but so does folding an overlay draw with some risk of drawing dead. So when you’re faced with a difficult drawing situation and suspect you may be drawing dead, try to analyze what percentage of your opponent’s range your drawing dead to, adjust your pricing accordingly, and if it’s still an overlay, go for it!

And, unlike me, try to make your draw only the times you’re actually drawing live. ♠

Roy Cooke played poker professionally for 16 years prior to becoming a successful Las Vegas Real Estate Broker/Salesman in 1989. Should you wish to any information about Real Estate matters-including purchase, sale or mortgage his office number is 702-396-6575 or Roy’s e-mail is [email protected]. His website is www.roycooke.com. You can also find him on Facebook or Twitter @RealRoyCooke.