Chances Are: Part VI

Breaking habits is very tough. It is especially tough when most of what you read and most of what you hear will perpetuate the bad habits. The habit I want you to break is referring to positions at the table by name and not by number seats away from the button. Almost everyone says “I was under the gun.” Books and articles sometimes shorten this to UTG. You are certainly first to act voluntarily after the blinds. The problem arises from the fact that “UTG” gives no clue how many players are behind you.

Some small-stakes cash games and some tournaments are played ten-handed. This means that when you are UTG there are nine players who haven’t looked and seven of them are behind you. If it is eight-handed, then there are seven who haven’t looked and five are behind you. Six-handed games are very popular online. There, the UTG player has only five players who haven’t looked and just three behind him. At the final tables of tournaments and even in some cash games, especially when players finish it out, there may be even fewer players. Instead, it is better to think in terms of how far away you are from the button. B-1 is the cutoff, B-2 is the hijack. Here is a simple chart to show this. The columns show the number of players at the table. The player UTG is shown first in each column, followed around to the button and the blinds.

10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3
Button-7
Button-6 Button-6
Button-5 Button-5 Button-5
Button-4 Button-4 Button-4 Button-4
Button-3 Button-3 Button-3 Button-3 Button-3
Button-2 Button-2 Button-2 Button-2 Button-2 Button-2
Button-1 Button-1 Button-1 Button-1 Button-1 Button-1 Button-1
Button Button Button Button Button Button Button Button
Small Blnd Small Blnd Small Blnd Small Blnd Small Blnd Small Blnd Small Blnd Small Blnd
Big Blind Big Blind Big Blind Big Blind Big Blind Big Blind Big Blind Big Blind

The reason it is crucial to start thinking of position in terms of the number of seats away from the button is that when no one has played in front of you, Button-2 in a ten-handed game is exactly the same as being UTG in a six-handed game. I frequently see the same player play much looser as B-2 in a ten-handed game than they play in a five-handed game. Why? Psychologically they are thinking that they are first to act in late position when it is ten-handed. Therefore loose play is appropriate. They are also thinking they are UTG when it is five-handed. Yet, in both cases the situation is exactly the same (there is actually a tiny difference in that when a lot of players have already folded, there are more likely to be high cards left). While the effect is small, it means that players who are looser when they are in B-2 nine or ten-handed are making an even bigger mistake, since it could be argued that they should be playing a little tighter than at five-handed table.
To continue the theme of this series, which emphasizes calculating odds, I will provide a simple example to show why it is important to think in the manner described above.

Let’s say you have a hand that is a favorite over an unknown or random hand. Let’s say your hand will be best 70 percent of the time against one opponent. But what if there are two opponents? What is the chance that at least one of these two players who hasn’t looked yet has you beaten? A simple way to calculate this is to multiply your winning percentage by itself for each opponent. For example, against two opponents .7 times .7 equals .49 You will have the best hand about half the time. If there are three opponents, then .7 times .7 times .7 equals .35. At least one of your opponents will have a better hand almost two-thirds of the time. This is why it is crucial to determine your starting strategy based on the number of players behind you. In the next column, I will examine the concept of multiplying odds to find chances of complicated events happening or not happening. This type of situation is very common. For example, you need a heart for a flush on the flop, what is the chance of missing on both the turn and the river? ♠

Steve ‘Zee’ Zolotow, aka The Bald Eagle, is a successful gamesplayer. He has been a full-time gambler for over 35 years. With 2 WSOP bracelets and few million in tournament cashes, he is easing into retirement. He currently devotes most of his time to poker. He can be found at some major tournaments and playing in cash games in Vegas. When escaping from poker, he hangs out in his bars on Avenue A in New York City -The Library near Houston and Doc Holliday’s on 9th St. are his favorites.