Assuming Too Much Risk!

Sometimes I can’t believe how stupid I can be! On occasion, I make mistakes when I obviously know better. I retain my self-image by justifying that smart people sometimes do stupid things. Of course, I may just be deceiving myself on multiple levels.
In a $20-$40 limit hold’em game at the Bellagio, a fast-action local opened with a raise two off the button. On the button, I peered down to the K 10. I tend to three-bet less with the button because part of the value of raising in late position is that you often acquire the “button” by folding players behind you. Additionally, K 10 is a volume-friendly hand that plays better with multiple opponents.

I’m also inclined to reraise aggressive players less. I find that flat calling and letting in additional opponents reduces an aggressive player’s value of aggression, as that value goes down with additional opponents. If I so choose, I can always seize the lead by being aggressive on the flop or choose not to as the situation dictates. There are many scenarios in which “flatting” just plays better, and I thought this was one of them. I flat called.

Billy, a solid local pro, three-bet out of the small blind (SB). I knew he had a quality mitt to three-bet two opponents out of position. The big blind (BB) and the rest of us called. We took the flop four-handed, $240 in the pot.

The flop went “right through the uprights,” the A Q J, giving me the nut straight, with position, on a rainbow board with a great opportunity to develop the action considering the probability of my opponents holding high cards. I was licking my chops and envisioning stacking a big one.

Billy led into the field, folding the BB, Mr. Fast-Local called and I hit it, thinking I would likely get a reraise from Billy. Instead, he flat called and Mr. Fast-Local rehit it. It wasn’t what I anticipated would happen and caused me to rethink my strategy. I thought that Mr. Fast-Local had a big hand to trap in this situation. I put his hand range on the same straight as me, two pair or possibly a set of jacks. I also thought he might cap it if I reraised. Billy had to have a strong piece of that board, probably at least a pair and a gutshot, and I didn’t reason that he would muck it for two more small bets in a pot this large. I four-bet it!

To my disappointment, Billy smartly folded, and Mr. Fast-Local called. The turn card came the Q, pairing second pair. Mr. Fast-Local checked to me and I fired. When I bet, I intuitively knew it wasn’t right, but did it anyway! I lost my mental focus for that moment and my brain disconnected itself from my actions. I’d previously read Mr. Fast-Local for a straight, two pair or a set of jacks. With the Q turning, the only hand I could beat of that range was specifically A-J.

Of course, I got check-raised. Peeved at myself, I now had another issue. Should I pay this off? If Mr. Fast-Local was equally likely to possess the individual holdings I’d read him for, there were six combinations of A-Q available, nine of A-J, three of J-J, six of Q-J and nine of K-10. I didn’t think he would check-raise with A-J, so I was 15-to-9 or 5-to-3 to be beaten, and the nine times I wasn’t beat I was looking at a tie. It would cost me $80 to pay off, assuming Mr. Fast-Action bet the river. There was currently $560 in the pot. Mr. Fast-Local’s river bet meant my odds would be $600-to-$80.

That said, that equation was giving myself no win, only a split, so my effective odds were $300-to-$80 or 3.75-to-1. I also thought by the way the hand played, Mr. Fast-Local was more likely to hold a straight than any of the other hands. When faced with these types of determinations, I think about the mathematical propensity for an opponent to hold individual hands in his range, but then make the necessary adjustments.

Is my opponent more likely to hold one hand over another? What’s the probability of him utilizing a deception play? Can I adjust my opponent’s range by including how the hand was played. Would he more likely play one hand the current way over a different holding? How far should I adjust my price based on any additional information? It’s an educated guess, but it moves my estimate closer to my net effective odds. In this case, I felt Mr. Fast-Local was more likely to hold a straight over the other potential holdings due to the fact he slow played the flop. I reasoned that Mr. Fast-Local was more likely to slow play a straight than two pair or a set. And I felt he would check-raise the turn with the straight.

Of course, in this situation it didn’t matter as I was already getting more than the right price to pay off hoping for a split. What was terrible about the turn bet was that I had unnecessarily assumed the risk of losing with little to no hope of gaining, not a winning strategy. Worse yet, I knew it was the wrong play when I made it!

My fears were realized when I paid off, and Mr. Fast-Action turned over the Q J, having filled on the turn. Had I made the right play based on my read, I wouldn’t have lost the $80 I bet and called on turn. It was caused by a loss of focus, and focus is usually one of my strengths. I don’t make these types of mental errors very often, one reason being that I get so irritated at myself when I do that it makes a profound impression on me not to do it again anytime soon. And, at this point, I was pretty peeved at myself.

I’m a very critical guy, generally of myself, but I can be tough on others too. I’m most critical of lack of effort and this error was caused by sloppiness. But I understand in both myself and others that we are human beings and subject to failures. I just try to admit, learn and grow from my errors. And I hope you admit your errors, and learn and grow from both yours and mine! ♠

Roy Cooke played poker professionally for 16 years prior to becoming a successful Las Vegas Real Estate Broker/Salesman in 1989. Should you wish to any information about Real Estate matters-including purchase, sale or mortgage his office number is 702-396-6575 or Roy’s e-mail is [email protected]. His website is www.roycooke.com. You can also find him on Facebook or Twitter @RealRoyCooke