It’s a Relative Thing!

Hand strength in poker is not necessarily about making big hands. Yeah, it’s great to make the “nuts,” but assessing hand strength in hold’em is something that’s relative to your opponent’s current hand range, not how it measures by nominal rank.

By nominal rank, I mean assessing a hand’s strength solely on its ranked strength, not by its “rated” strength. An example being that 2-2 is nominally ranked higher than A-K, though it is an inferior preflop holding. Preflop, A-K is a much better hand against A-Q than 5-5 is, because A-K, played correctly, will extract far more money from A-Q than the two fives will, even though 5-5 is a hand of higher ranking than A-K.

A more accurate quantification of hand value is a hand’s propensity to make money in the current situation. In other words, what’s the hands current expected value (EV)? Weak players tend to focus solely on their hand, assess the value of their hand by its ranking, and ignore how its strength is affected by the current situation. That unsound logic causes many poor decisions in their play of hands. The better approach is to read your opponent’s hands and then calculate your hand’s best play against the hand ranges of your opponents. Yeah, it’s more complicated, but if you want to take home the money, you have to learn how to do it.

I was one off the button in a Bellagio $20-$40 limit hold’em game holding the K K. No one had opened in front of me, and I fired in a raise. The button folded and Sam, a fat and jolly longtime local grinder, three-bet me from the small blind (SB), folding the big blind (BB). I reraised, and Sam capped it. I knew Sam held a big mitt in order to five-bet me out of position, but I did too. That said, I was fully aware I might be up against aces.

My fears about being beat were greatly amplified when the dealer flopped the Q J 10. Now, I couldn’t beat aces, A-K, queens, jacks or tens. That pretty much left a deception play as the only holding I could beat in my opponent’s hand range. And I was nearly certain that Sam wasn’t messing around. Nevertheless, even though I couldn’t beat any part of Sam’s hand range, I did have an overpair and an open-ender. Sam fired and I called. The turn came the 6♦ and Sam fired again. I tossed in another call.

The river came the 9, filling my straight. Sam checked and I slid out a wager. Sam smiled, turned two aces face up, giggled and stated “I can’t beat a hand.” To my great disappointment, he tossed his aces into the muck. Unfortunately for me, Sam understood the correct way to value a hand, and knew his two aces had turned into total doo-doo! The fact Sam understood hand valuations saved him forty bucks, $40 I should have been stacking! Many players tend to throw away bets in Sam’s situation; they fall in love with their two aces, marry them, and pay off even when they know they are beat. It’s like they emotionally can’t let go of them!

When I’m faced with a poker decision, I often ask myself the following three questions. What is real? How will it play? And what will the net effect be? Those three questions have application to many of life’s decisions also.

By “what is real,” I mean what is really going on. Many poker players project something very different from what they are really executing (that doesn’t just apply to poker either). Are they “talking loose and playing tight,” being deceptive in manner and making the sporadic deception play, but really playing solid? It’s important to avoid getting caught up in their act. How does your opponent really play? Judge them by their actions, not their projected image! What is their knowledge level? Do they make emotional decisions? Is your opponent vengeful after you beat him the last pot? What’s his hand range in the current situation, based on all the information you have available? The questions are infinite, but the concept is to make your judgments based on what is really taking place, not on your opponents’ projections or your own emotional impulses.

“How will it play,” denotes how will the current situation unfold? What is going to transpire? Many players have rigid mindsets on how to play given hands based on their ranking and/or number of opponents. But does that strategy correspond to the current situation? Are you planning on check-raising a late position raiser who often preflop raises and takes a free card? Are you slow playing a big hand against an opponent who would call anyway? Once again, the questions are infinite, but the concept is to consider what is about to ensue. And include what your propensity to be correct is into the equation. Contemplate how you can effectively play your hand best based on all the potential plausible scenarios. Once you can reasonably estimate what will really materialize, your decisions should become more accurate.

“What is the net effect,” refers to what will be the ultimate results of your play choice? What are all the probabilities of all scenarios? Will you get positive equity based on your opponents’ hand ranges? How will this situation affect future circumstances? You’ll be doing some “rough justice” in most cases, but contemplating the net effect will shape your thinking to the right mindset, thereby strengthening your decision-making skills. Once again, this is not a concept you should overlook in your life decisions either.

In this example, both Sam and I correctly assessed our hand values based on our opponents’ range of hands and played our hands accordingly. We each knew the other held a huge hand. I saved EV by knowing I was almost certainly beat on the flop and by not getting frisky even though I held an overpair and an open-ender. Sam saved EV by knowing that he was beaten on the river and correctly folding his two aces.

I’d done all I could ask of myself. I’d played my hand well and made the best decisions I could with the information I had available at the time. Unfortunately for me, Sam did too! I’ll have to think up another tactic to relieve him of his chips! ♠

Roy Cooke played poker professionally for 16 years prior to becoming a successful Las Vegas Real Estate Broker/Salesman in 1989. Should you wish to any information about Real Estate matters-including purchase, sale or mortgage his office number is 702-396-6575 or Roy’s e-mail is [email protected]. His website is www.roycooke.com. You can also find him on Facebook or Twitter @RealRoyCooke