Chances Are: Part XI: Big Laydowns

My Arms Are Still Sore

The hand I am going to describe took place over thirty years ago. Pot-limit Omaha (PLO) had just started to become popular in Las Vegas. Some of the players were experienced or adapted quickly to the fact that the average winning hand was much stronger than the average winning hand in hold’em. Others were somewhat slower to realize this, and often went broke with top pair plus top kicker or low flushes, which are not very strong hands in PLO. I had played a lot of Omaha-high in games in New York, more limit than no-limit, but I was very aware of the fact that only the best hands ever won big pots.

This series has tried to emphasize both the importance of playing mathematically sound poker (and how to calculate your chances) and focusing on specific situations, in which a play that seems anti-percentage or counter-intuitive may be called for. When you fold a hand that will beat almost every hand your opponent can hold, you are making a big laydown. It is also important to know the chance of a hand winning the pot in the particular variation of poker you are playing. (For example, an 8-7-6-4-2 is a very strong hand in single draw no-limit deuce-to-seven lowball, but a weak one in limit triple-draw deuce-to-seven.) As I have mentioned in previous columns, it may seem almost mathematically insane to fold a hand that can beat 99 percent of the random hands your opponent might hold. But the betting action, physical tells and situation make it clear that your opponent’s hand isn’t random. In fact, you eventually come to the conclusion that he has exactly one of those few hands that can beat you. Even after you come to this unhappy conclusion, it is still very difficult to fold. The fictional detective Sherlock Holmes, written by Arthur Conan Doyle, once said, “when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth.”

This particular PLO game had blinds of $10-$20, but you weren’t allowed to limp. You had to make at least a min-raise to $40 to enter the pot. One of the players was the legendary Roger Moore, who was one of the great instinctive or non-scientific players of his time. The cutoff was one of those guys who had not adjusted to Omaha hand values, and had already lost close to $20,000. The button was super tight, and not about to give up his stack of over $7,000 without a very strong hand. I had a big stack, close to $10,000, and I was the big blind with A K 9 9. Roger Moore opened for the minimum $40, the weak player called, the tight player called, and I completed. I got my dream flop 9 7 5. I had flopped the nut flush with top set. I decided to lead out with a pot-sized bet since I hoped the weak player had a piece of the flop, and would call me down. Roger folded, but both the weak player and the tight player called. The turn was the 2, which changed nothing. I bet the pot again. I was happy to see the weak player think for a while and then call. To my surprise the tight player raised.

My first thought was, “how can I trap him into getting the rest of his chips into the pot?” Then I re-thought. What was going on? The 2 certainly hadn’t helped his hand. He was very unlikely to be bluffing. First because the weak player might call him down. Second, the normal bluffing hand when there is a three-flush on board in PLO includes the “naked” ace. That is the ace of the flush suit, but without another of that suit. (This is a great bluffing hand, since no one can have the nut flush when you have the ace.) In this case he couldn’t have the A because I had it. So if he had a real hand I had him crushed? No, there was one unlikely hand that had me beat. If his four cards included the 8 6, he had a straight flush and I had no wins. They were getting ready to call for a clock when I folded. The weak player called. The river paired the deuce, and the weak player got all-in holding Q 10 7 7 (a worse flush and a worse set than the one I had folded.) Not unexpectedly, the tight player showed 8 8 6 6, and won a nice pot with his straight flush. I was saddened to lose with such a good hand, but very pleased not to have lost much more. Later when I described my brilliancy to a friend in the bar, he asked if I had sore arms. I had no idea what he meant. Then he continued, “You know, your arms get sore when spend too much time patting yourself on the back.” ♠

Steve ‘Zee’ Zolotow, aka The Bald Eagle, is a successful gamesplayer. He has been a full-time gambler for over 35 years. With 2 WSOP bracelets and few million in tournament cashes, he is easing into retirement. He currently devotes most of his time to poker. He can be found at some major tournaments and playing in cash games in Vegas. When escaping from poker, he hangs out in his bars on Avenue A in New York City -The Library near Houston and Doc Holliday’s on 9th St. are his favorites.