Bluffing the Bluffer, But Damn It, I Got There!

You must comprehend and correctly apply semibluffing if you aspire to be a winning poker player. Semibluffing is betting an improvable hand with cards to come that is probably not the best hand, but has outs to become the best hand and wouldn’t warrant a value bet based strictly on its current value.

The additional value of the potential “fold equity” of the semibluff swings the wager’s value from negative to positive. Of course, it’s a risk versus reward proposition. The propensity of your opponent(s) to fold, the negative expected value (EV) cost of the bet versus the size of the reward (the pot), and the negative or positive ways in which your betting or raising will affect the price of your draw are all components that need to be evaluated in determining whether the semibluff is the correct play for the current situation.

I was winning a little in a nine-handed early morning $20-$40 limit hold’em game. A poor playing tourist limped up front and was called by a solid player. I looked down to the A 3 and tossed in a call. The button, a unique style of opponent, a novice Las Vegas tourist who was trying to play well, but didn’t know how, raised.

Mr. Novice-Tourist was a confusing player who made some very unconventional plays due to his poor hand reading and lack of situational knowledge. He had previously checked top pair in position when it was checked to him as well as employing some other highly unique plays. The small blind (SB) called, and Vincent, a highly aggressive and talented local pro called in the big blind (BB), as did the two limpers. We took the flop off six-handed for $40 each, $240 in the pot.

The flop turned up the K 8 5, a swing and a miss for my holding. It checked to me and I knuckled, as did Mr. Novice-Tourist. I turned the Q free of charge and picked up the nut-flush draw.

The SB checked and Vincent fired from the BB position, folding the two players between us. It was the perfect spot for a semibluff raise. Being highly aggressive, Vincent is going a bet a lot of weak hands in that spot, small pairs, picked up draws and possibly even total air. There was a portion of his hand range he would fold to a raise, a portion he would fold to a raise and river bet, and a portion I had beat if he held a smaller flush or straight draw.

I hit it a lick, praying to win it right there, but knowing it was unlikely. If I got called, I could make my flush or maybe catch an ace that would be good. If I won, my turn raise would have made the pot bigger. Additionally, raising the turn would strengthen a river bluff. The combination of values made raising the best play.

I was immediately disappointed, Mr. Novice-Tourist tanked and then hesitatingly called. His manner of calling made it obvious he was weak. The SB folded, and then Vincent three-bet. Now I knew I was going to have to make a hand to win. Mr. Novice-Tourist called behind me.

The poker gods smiled at me on the river. I caught the 6, filling my nut flush. To my delight, Vincent fired, I joyfully raised, folding Mr. Novice-Tourist. Vincent’s confident face transformed into disillusionment, and he reluctantly slipped in $40 for the final call.

I turned my hand over and Vincent showed me the 9 8, having three-bet the turn with a pair of eights and a nine-high flush draw. The dealer pushed me the massive pot.

While I was obviously enjoying the moment much more than Vincent, I loved his play. He’d read the turn to perfection, reading Mr. Novice-Tourist the same way I had, very weak and unlikely to call the river. Vincent knew that I knew he’d turn-bet a lot of weak hands. And he knew that when I knew that, possessing the larcenous heart that I do, I’d raise him with a lot of marginal holdings and bluffs. And should I be in possession of that portion of my range, Vincent was going to win this pot even if he missed, assuming I missed, and he bet the hand down, something in hindsight I knew he was going to do!

The positive value of Vincent’s third bet is the likelihood that he could get either me or Mr. Novice-Tourist to fold a hand better than eights with a nine kicker. In a pot of this size, with significant outs, and with both of us likely to possess marginal holdings, Vincent didn’t have to win the pot very often with the worst hand to make the extra bet(s) risked have positive EV.

I’ve learned much in both poker and life from observing others’ talents as well as their mistakes. This example illustrates two knowledgeable players wrestling to take the lead in a pot in which they both read the field to be weak. Both understood the value of semibluffing and could assess the risk versus reward of a semi-bluffing equation. One of us got lucky to win the pot after the other had made the right read and regained the lead. The great news was that it was me!

Vincent read the situation perfectly, and made the correct play on his read. But the poker gods, as they often do, refused to cooperate. Nonetheless, he did all he could ask of himself, which is all we can ever do. And like the pro he is, he took the beat cordially and played the next hand. ♠

Roy Cooke played poker professionally for 16 years prior to becoming a successful Las Vegas Real Estate Broker/Salesman in 1989. Should you wish to any information about Real Estate matters-including purchase, sale or mortgage his office number is 702-396-6575 or Roy’s e-mail is [email protected]. His website is www.roycooke.com. You can also find him on Facebook or Twitter @RealRoyCooke