Second Place May Be The First Loser, But It’s Worth A Lot More Than Third

Continuing our discussion on tournament poker, I sure hope you caught my last column on ICM (Independent Chip Model). Every single thing we will be talking about today revolves around that concept, and truly the theory of ICM is the central difference between tournament poker and cash games. In a cash game, each chip is worth money. You can quit after any hand, take those chips to the cage, and turn them into cash. If you have $1,000 in a cash game and double it, then you have $2,000. Next hand you could lose it all, but before that hand you can quit and take your money home, too. In a tournament, if you double up your chips, then you do not double up your chances of winning the tournament and you do not double up your equity. You can’t quit and spend those chips on anything except the occasional hooker in Las Vegas or poker coaching in Los Angeles. Any time you risk all of your chips in a tournament you are risking more in equity than you can receive, so you should be more conservative in tournaments when risking all of your chips. Everything we are about to talk about revolves around this concept.

In fourteen years of final tables, I’ve learned that they fall into one of two categories. Sometimes final tables take on a character of lunacy. They’re happy they made it here, now they just want to double up and make a run at winning the thing or get going to the party. This feels more common in smaller prize pools, both a combination of less experienced players and less important money. When you start talking about life changing money, like at the 2013 WSOP main event final table, you will often see play take on the opposite style. Players are aware of ICM. Furthermore, they are aware of how much real money is at stake for who goes broke next. When we were 13-handed in the 2011 main event, I knew very well what the pay difference was between 13th and 12th place, nearly $130,000. If I cashed today for $130,000 it would be the fifth biggest cash of my career. Suddenly my theory of ICM was if I let an opponent go broke first then I win three annual salaries. Like everything in life, the truth lies in the balance. Win all the chips, don’t go broke.

If your final table is a passive one, then you should be aggressive. The goal is to win all the chips without going broke. They’re focused on the next pay jump, so threaten them with going broke. Target these stacks with an aversion to speculative situations. The best stack sizes to target are in the 20-30 big blind (BB) range. Their stack is too big to shove over your open. It’s also too big to three-bet lightly with because of how big a percentage of their stack they would have to risk. Their stack is too small to play a pot postflop without risk of going broke. Conversely, it is less optimal to attack stacks less than twenty BBs, because they are willing to shove on you. If the stack is big, and especially if it is bigger than yours, then you are the one who can be put in compromising ICM situations.

If the table is aggressive, then knit a sweater. Every single mistake made at a poker table benefits you, especially in tournament poker when people go broke. If people are breaking each other, then don’t put money into the pot with the worst hand because it is unlikely that they are going to be folding. Instead let them try to outplay you when you have the best hand and won’t be folding.

The most common mistake I see made by fellow wizards is getting into a grudge matches against the other good player with the other big stack. They both want to control the table and win all the pots, they know that he knows that she knows that it’s hard to make a pair, and eventually some silly stupid hand happens where they’re both losing money. If the two best players take second and third place as compared to first and eighth, the two best players take home more money when they take second and third. There comes a point when you, as a good player, simply need to yield to the other good player at the table, especially if you are out of position to them. If it was a cash game, change seats. But since it is a tournament, you simply have to acknowledge the other good player, realize that you need to be outlasting those other lumps at the table, and trudge along until table dynamics change.

Sometimes I min-raise every time they fold to me. Sometimes I never bluff and make my opening raise sizes bigger, sometimes… gasp… even as big as three times the BB! Remember that there is an optimal way to play poker, and then there is a perfect way to play poker. If it’s a live tournament and I know that guy is a vehement defender of his blinds and those guys won’t three-bet light, then heck yes I will make my preflop raise size bigger, because like every other situation in poker, I am constantly seeking to put more money into the pot with the best hand.

Win all the chips, don’t go broke. Pressure them, avoid dangerous situations. Don’t lose big pots, win lots of small pots. All the money is in the top three spots. Folding is usually your best play. Raising is often a reasonable play. Calling is generally your worst option. If they fold, it doesn’t matter what your cards were. If they fold, you can’t lose. Since it doesn’t matter who has all the chips until somebody has all the chips, it’s better to stick around and see how that turns out than try to win all the chips when you can’t win all the chips. You can lose the tournament now, but you can’t win unless you get everybody else all-in. ♠

Bryan Devonshire has been a professional poker player for nearly a decade and has more than $2 million in tournament earnings. Follow him on Twitter
@devopoker.